Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Maxwell]

Everything is so quiet in mudevile tonight. 

Wonder why?

A republican winning here isn't particularly surprising - Trump and Farenthold (who has always been rather toxic) both won this district with over 60% of the vote and now the combined Republican vote is just a bit below 60%. This district seemed rather inflexible - Democrats slightly improved their performances in places where democrats do better than they do in the district as a whole anyway, but most of the district voted the way it always does. I don't think anybody was anticipating a major upset here.

also it's a Saturday night and only the realest of the real are probably going to be up watching results.

also wow turnout is pathetically low - less people voted than the March 6th REPUBLICAN PRIMARY in the district.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Totals:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
U. S. Representative District 27 - Unexpired Term               
Raul (Roy) Barrera   DEM   1,275   5.83%   1,747   4.81%
Bech Bruun   REP   1,182   5.41%   1,570   4.32%
Michael Cloud   REP   12,101   55.39%   19,856   54.74%
Judith Cutright   IND   108   0.49%   172   0.47%
Eric Holguin   DEM   6,288   28.78%   11,594   31.96%
Marty Perez   REP   178   0.81%   276   0.76%
Christopher Suprun   IND   26   0.11%   51   0.14%
Daniel Tinus   LIB   75   0.34%   144   0.39%
Michael Westergren   DEM   611   2.79%   858   2.36%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      21,844      36,268   
Precincts Reported      184   of   184 Precincts      100.00%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Everything is so quiet in mudeville tonight.  

Wonder why?

Because this was not a race to watch.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Let me warn you of what I believe are two losing courses of action for the Democrats

1. Attacking ICE, attacking officers, and seizing offices.

2. Accosting Republican officeholders in public or at home.  That is especially true when the officeholder is a woman.  Keep accosting Attorney General Bondi in Florida.  See how that helps Nelson win re-election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Let me warn you of what I believe are two losing courses of action for the Democrats

1. Attacking ICE, attacking officers, and seizing offices.

2. Accosting Republican officeholders in public or at home.  That is especially true when the officeholder is a woman.  Keep accosting Attorney General Bondi in Florida.  See how that helps Nelson win re-election.

We don't do any of that.

Besides, I highly doubt that will influence the voter, who wasn't going to vote in the first place, to vote for the GOP.

[Maxwell]

thanks for the bad faith advice based on the results of a district where Republicans outspent Democrats 10-1, the last GOP presidential candidate won over 60% of the vote, and voter turnout was utterly abysmal in every definition of the word.

37k people voted in this special election. 87k people voted in the AZ-8 special election... FOR HIRAL TIPERNENI, the losing candidate.

[Arkansas Yankee]

You all are whistling past the grave yard.

In this special election the GOP candidates received 59.82% of the vote.  The Democrats received 39.13.

In 2016 Farenthold received 61.69%. The Democrat 38.31%

Swing to the Democrats .82

I know you did not think you would win the District.  But you all thought that there would be a much larger swing.  You thought you could force a run off.  Please do not dissemble.

[Maxwell]

lol who are you talking to? I didn't.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

lol who are you talking to? I didn't.

Yankee is just shouting into the void.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Let me warn you of what I believe are two losing courses of action for the Democrats

1. Attacking ICE, attacking officers, and seizing offices.

2. Accosting Republican officeholders in public or at home.  That is especially true when the officeholder is a woman.  Keep accosting Attorney General Bondi in Florida.  See how that helps Nelson win re-election.

We don't do any of that.

Besides, I highly doubt that will influence the voter, who wasn't going to vote in the first place, to vote for the GOP.

No, you did not do it.  Allies did.  Maxine is encouraging it.

I hope you keep believing these actions will not effect Democrats negatively.

[ON Progressive]

If people are going to care more about some people shouting at Trump administration officials than Trump's actions, they were always Republican voters anyway.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Let me warn you of what I believe are two losing courses of action for the Democrats

1. Attacking ICE, attacking officers, and seizing offices.

2. Accosting Republican officeholders in public or at home.  That is especially true when the officeholder is a woman.  Keep accosting Attorney General Bondi in Florida.  See how that helps Nelson win re-election.

We don't do any of that.

Besides, I highly doubt that will influence the voter, who wasn't going to vote in the first place, to vote for the GOP.

No, you did not do it.  Allies did.  Maxine is encouraging it.

I hope you keep believing these actions will not effect Democrats negatively.

They won't. The shooting in Annapolis sure didn't make the GOP look good, if we're going off of your standards.

[Gass3268]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

[Maxwell]

it'll hurt Democrats in all three households that have ICE Agents who vote Democratic downballot.

[Tender Branson]

Fairly interesting that the Republican already won in the 1st round.

On the other hand, only 30.000 people voted and I guess the average CD has a population between 700.000-750.000 people, so this special election is totally meaningless.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote. 

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Fairly interesting that the Republican already won in the 1st round.

On the other hand, only 30.000 people voted and I guess the average CD has a population between 700.000-750.000 people, so this special election is totally meaningless.

But you have been telling me that Republicans have not been as motivated to vote as Democrats.  Here they were almost as motivated.  Now you try to change rules of analysis.

In this election on this day there was basically equal motivation.  Can you explain any reason for that than the ones I have listed?

[BudgieForce]

I didn't even know there was an election tonight, apparently nobody in Texas did either.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, we friggin won Nueces county like 50.4-48.6, this is awesome!

[Arkansas Yankee]

TX-27 is a Jungle Primary, so we have this YUGE field:

Democratic Party Raul (Roy) Barrera[9]
Democratic Party Eric Holguin[10]
Democratic Party Mike Westergren[9]
Republican Party Bech Bruun[10]
Republican Party Michael Cloud[10]
Republican Party Marty Perez[11]
Libertarian Party Daniel Tinus[9]
Independent Judith Cutright[9]
Independent Chris Suprun[9]

--------------

So I'll guess: Cloud(R) 44%, Barrera(D) 18%, Holguin(D) 14%, Westergren(D) 8%, Brunn (R) 7%, Perez(R) 6%, Others 3%

This was one prediction of Democrat optimism in Tex 27 that went puff

[Arkansas Yankee]

My prediction: Cloud wins by 12%

A prediction from yesterday afternoon that went puff.

[Gass3268]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote.  

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

I didn't make that chart, it's what Harry Enten at CNN and formally 538 uses. Also Data Journalist for the Economist G. Elliott Morris agrees with Enten (his +5 came before all the votes were counted).

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1013237246990934016

[Arkansas Yankee]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote.  

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

I didn't make that chart, it's what Harry Enten at CNN and formally 538 uses. Also Data Journalist for the Economist G. Elliott Morris agrees with Enten (his +5 came before all the votes were counted).

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1013237246990934016

It is still worthless or predicting swing.  It obvious that was not including the votes of the other Republicans.

You did not gain 6% on the GOP! PERIOD!

[Gass3268]

This kind of thing just costs Enten and so on credibility. And it opens him up to ugly attacks like this:



It's war out there guys.

How? This is a legitimate way of looking at this. Multiple data journalists use this method.

[Gass3268]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote.  

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

I didn't make that chart, it's what Harry Enten at CNN and formally 538 uses. Also Data Journalist for the Economist G. Elliott Morris agrees with Enten (his +5 came before all the votes were counted).

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1013237246990934016

It is still worthless.   It obvious that was not including the votes of the other Republicans.

The Republicans got 59.8% and the Democrats got 39.1% of the vote, which is a 20 point spread. This is 6 points better than the partisan lean of the district. Therefore it's a 6 point Dem swing.