Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Goddamnit DDHQ get your names right

[McGovernForPrez]

I think Thompson has nowhere to go but up from here to be honest. Most of all the rural counties are in. I wonder if the results will narrow back again.

[Angrie]

Except the parts of the district where Thompson seems to have done relatively well in are precisely the urban/suburban parts of the district, not the rural parts.

Rural = ultra-safe Trump/GOP territory.

In plenty of other rural counties outside of Sedgwick, Thompson did better than Hillary in 2016.

Yeah, but not by much as compared to the (apparent, since the vote is not all in yet) swings in Sedgwick.

[houseonaboat]

More likely that Estes wins by 9+ than he wins by

[exopolitician]

I think Thompson has nowhere to go but up from here to be honest. Most of all the rural counties are in. I wonder if the results will narrow back again.

Two rural counties out, and latest batch from Sedgwick helping Estes. I think this one is done.

[RI]

Estes up to a 4.2% lead.

[Chief Justice Keef]

to be totally fair, the GOP gets a boost from flying in a star like Cruz, a liberal guest would have been more of a local problem, i guess.

Sending in Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi wasn't going to cut it, obviously, but somebody like Bernie who won here in the primary might've flipped more votes.

i can't imagine how any gov could screw a state more than brownback and the party has suffered nearly no loss at all on any level.

It doesn't help when the opposition party doesn't know how to win elections.

The Democrats (and moderate Republicans) have won many seats in the KS legislature since 2014. I understand you have some very deep antagonisms with the Democratic party, but at least get the facts straight.

That's not really the point, though. Tom Perez didn't even bother to invest in the race, and the Kansas Democratic Party only spent $3,000 on this race. They assumed they had absolutely no chance here when it's very clear by how close this was that they did.

[cinyc]

I think Thompson has nowhere to go but up from here to be honest. Most of all the rural counties are in. I wonder if the results will narrow back again.

The Sedgwick County election day vote in so far is even (at best) for Thompson, so probably not.  And there are still some other rurals out.

[jamestroll]

More likely that Estes wins by 9+ than he wins by

^^^

My prediction of a 10 point margin gap may be accurate but slightly GOP leaning.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This might not be close after all.  We still should have won this by 20.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm crossing my fingers the election-day vote in Sedgewick County is better for Thompson, but at this point it's highly unlikely

[ApatheticAustrian]

wonderful micro-cosmos-debate.

a district so republican that winning that way seems like losing and a problem for national repbulicans and still so republican, that even a massive double combo like brownback/trump couldn't turn it.

guess everybody can be happy or sad atm.

[Nyvin]

More likely that Estes wins by 9+ than he wins by

^^^

I don't think it's possible for Estes to win by 9%....there isn't enough left outside of Sedgwick and Sedgwick looks to be about even at best for Estes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

If KS-4 happened in a vacuum, fine. But on top of CA-34 last week. GA-6 looking close. Trump approval at 40. Generic ballot big Dem lead...
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851979841620631554


Keep in mind, #KS04 is the 74th most GOP district in the U.S. out of 435,
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/851980050274680832

[100% pro-life no matter what]

More likely that Estes wins by 9+ than he wins by

^^^

I don't think it's possible for Estes to win by 9%....there isn't enough left outside of Sedgwick and Sedgwick looks to be about even at best for Estes.

It's up to 5 right now

[Chief Justice Keef]

[cinyc]

DDHQ calls the race for Estes.

[Nyvin]

More likely that Estes wins by 9+ than he wins by

^^^

I don't think it's possible for Estes to win by 9%....there isn't enough left outside of Sedgwick and Sedgwick looks to be about even at best for Estes.

It's up to 5 right now

Well,  if that happens then the hype was kinda overblown, but the GOP still under-performed.

[NeederNodder]

Will anybody be fired at the DNC this time?

[RI]

DDHQ calls the race for Estes.

While DDHQ is pretty good for reporting results, they suck at calling races. In this case, they're almost certainly right, however.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Well,  if that happens then the hype was kinda overblown,

it was not.

the downfall is massive, even if you don't lose. this is important.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Will anybody be fired at the DNC this time?

Don't think so. They'll probably just double down on the Georgia race and write off Montana because it's "unwinnable".

[heatcharger]

Will anybody be fired at the DNC this time?

Perez already fired a bunch of people a while ago. As more vote comes in, it's looking less like a nail-biter and more like a huge Republican underperformance. Save your pitchforks for something else.

[Mike Thick]

Estes pulling away now

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 426 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   37,955   47%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   1,396   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   41,695   51%