Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)  (Read 202299 times)
ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #450 on: April 11, 2017, 08:28:20 PM »
Quote from: Badger on April 11, 2017, 08:25:31 PM
Am I missing something or is everyone missing the fact that Sedgewick appears to be largely out and Thompson is romping there? Even given the Democratic League of early voters, I'm not sure why there's so much pessimism among Democrats right now.

it is effing kansas, which doubled down on brownback even while it seemingly hates the guy and holds together anyway.

and EV is a bad indicator as 2016 has shown.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #451 on: April 11, 2017, 08:28:50 PM »
Quote from: Alpha on April 11, 2017, 08:26:59 PM
Quote from: NeederNodder on April 11, 2017, 08:25:40 PM
This could've been less of a nail-biter if the DNC actually funded money for Thompson's campaign.

I guarantee you even if Thompson loses by a razor-thin margin they'll say "well, looks like populism failed here."

Dude, look at the numbers coming from the rural precincts. Estes is doing just fine out there.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #452 on: April 11, 2017, 08:29:17 PM »
17/23 reporting in Barber: 71-27 Estes (82-13 Trump)
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Holmes
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« Reply #453 on: April 11, 2017, 08:29:29 PM »
I see two possibilities. The rural counties carry Estes over the finish line, or Wichita and surrounding burbs betray Republicans and elect Thompson.
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #454 on: April 11, 2017, 08:29:40 PM »
Quote from: houseonaboat on April 11, 2017, 08:28:53 PM
Interesting that Thompson is slightly outperforming Hillary in rural counties, even if Estes is keeping on pace with Trump. Suggests that Dem underperformance in key areas in 2016 was HRC specific more so than party specific
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Xing
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« Reply #455 on: April 11, 2017, 08:29:50 PM »
It all comes down to the election day turnout in Sedgwick and the surrounding counties. If the election day vote doesn't give Estes much of a boost in those counties, Thompson might still pull this off. Otherwise, Estes probably pulls ahead.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #456 on: April 11, 2017, 08:30:21 PM »
Quote from: InheritTheWind on April 11, 2017, 08:27:59 PM
Quote from: Confused Democrat on April 11, 2017, 08:26:48 PM
Quote from: Badger on April 11, 2017, 08:25:31 PM
Am I missing something or is everyone missing the fact that Sedgewick appears to be largely out and Thompson is romping there? Even given the Democratic League of early voters, I'm not sure why there's so much pessimism among Democrats right now.

Because of the 2016 Presidential election results.

I feel like as a party, we collectively have PTSD
Yeah, thanks DNC. Such an effective party.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #457 on: April 11, 2017, 08:30:30 PM »
51-48 Thompson
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heatcharger
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« Reply #458 on: April 11, 2017, 08:30:32 PM »
51-48 Thompson... his margin is down to ~1,600. Still not much out of Sedgwick though. Butler is looking pretty loyal to Estes.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #459 on: April 11, 2017, 08:30:39 PM »
United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 130 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   24,892   51%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   804   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   23,239   48%   
    
    
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #460 on: April 11, 2017, 08:31:03 PM »
Somewhere just dumped, and the lead has been cut to 1,500 for Thompson.
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Vega
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« Reply #461 on: April 11, 2017, 08:31:32 PM »
I really wouldn't count Thompson out given what is outstanding (Wichita mainly) and what has come in
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #462 on: April 11, 2017, 08:31:33 PM »
Sedgwick is still almost completely out
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Xing
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« Reply #463 on: April 11, 2017, 08:31:40 PM »
Butler gave Estes a bump, he's up 63-35 there now. But Thompson is still up 56-43 in Harvey, with more votes in.
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bilaps
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« Reply #464 on: April 11, 2017, 08:31:45 PM »
Quote from: MAINEiac4434 on April 11, 2017, 08:31:03 PM
Somewhere just dumped, and the lead has been cut to 1,500 for Thompson.

Butler
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #465 on: April 11, 2017, 08:31:52 PM »
Just an update: 60% of the precincts outside of Butler, Sedgwick and Sumner have reported. This probably means more like three-quarters of their votes are in already.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #466 on: April 11, 2017, 08:32:14 PM »
As of right now:

50.9 (Thompson)
47.5 (Estes)
1.6 (Rockhold)
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RI
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« Reply #467 on: April 11, 2017, 08:32:20 PM »
The precincts with the most out in Sedgwick tend to be more GOP than what's already in.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #468 on: April 11, 2017, 08:32:34 PM »
Yeah, the votes are still outstanding in Sedgwick. If Thompson keeps a good enough lead there he'll win.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #469 on: April 11, 2017, 08:32:40 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2017, 08:34:19 PM by ProgressiveCanadian »
21% in
Thompson 50.9%
Estes 47.5%
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #470 on: April 11, 2017, 08:33:22 PM »
What are the key counties for tonight?
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #471 on: April 11, 2017, 08:33:26 PM »
Quote from: RI on April 11, 2017, 08:32:20 PM
The precincts with the most out in Sedgwick tend to be more GOP than what's already in.

There's evidence that plenty of Republicans defected to Thompson, so who knows.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #472 on: April 11, 2017, 08:33:35 PM »
I'm reminded of election night...

"Miami is still out,"

"Cleveland is still out,"

"Detroit is still out,"
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heatcharger
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« Reply #473 on: April 11, 2017, 08:33:50 PM »
Still nothing out of Stafford, Pratt, Harper, Elk, Greenwood, and Chautauqua counties. They make up ~5% of the vote.

Edit: Chautauqua comes in at 79-20 Estes with 5 out of 15 reporting.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #474 on: April 11, 2017, 08:33:56 PM »
Sedgwick updated, county now:

James A. Thompson             ......   20900 / 57%
Chris Rockhold                ......     559 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   15091 / 41%
WRITE-IN                      ......      49 /  0%
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