Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What time do polls close today?

8 PM EST

[McGovernForPrez]

Is there website that will have a live results page for this election?

You can find them at decisiondeskhq.com

[Ebsy]

I imagine AP runners will also be there for the results. Though I haven't seen an actual AP results page, kansas.com (The Wichita Eagle) will more than likely have a feed of these results.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The AP results page and other general info have been in the OP for close to a week now.

[Holmes]

Any reports on turnout?

[The Other Castro]

Any reports on turnout?

Not sure on live stuff, but yesterday The Kansas City Star had the Kansas Republican Party Director Clay Barker predict 20% turnout or lower.

One source says:

"I just spoke to a Sedgwick County election official, who described turnout as 'steady, but not overwhelming.'"
https://twitter.com/daviddesola/status/851848885819637761

[The Other Castro]

Useful chart from 538 on importance of KS-4 in context:

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[Xing]

I'd be careful about reading too much into the results here. Don't be too quick to assume that Democrats are headed for massive victories over the next two years if Thompson overperforms here. It's too soon to make that conclusion.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd be careful about reading too much into the results here. Don't be too quick to assume that Democrats are headed for massive victories over the next two years if Thompson overperforms here. It's too soon to make that conclusion.

If Dems can win in this ultra-republican seat, it's difficult to see a house seat that they can't win.

[Maxwell]

I'd be careful about reading too much into the results here. Don't be too quick to assume that Democrats are headed for massive victories over the next two years if Thompson overperforms here. It's too soon to make that conclusion.

True - Estes has been a disastrous candidate, possibly worse even than any of the GOPers running in Georgia's 6th.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'd be careful about reading too much into the results here. Don't be too quick to assume that Democrats are headed for massive victories over the next two years if Thompson overperforms here. It's too soon to make that conclusion.

As I said before, the results of a single special don't tell us much, but a the trend of the margins across them all can be more indicative of a potential wave.

[ApatheticAustrian]

a single digit loss for dems would energize the base everywhere, imho.

this race was a non-starter anyway and no one has really cared until a day or two ago.

[Classic Conservative]

Could just be true lies:

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There's definitely are some registered republicans voting for him, but I doubt this.

[Brittain33]

I'd be careful about reading too much into the results here. Don't be too quick to assume that Democrats are headed for massive victories over the next two years if Thompson overperforms here. It's too soon to make that conclusion.

True - Estes has been a disastrous candidate, possibly worse even than any of the GOPers running in Georgia's 6th.

When there's a bad national environment, normally competent candidates look like hapless fools and perfectly average candidates appear to walk on water.

[Holmes]

If the race ends up within single digits, then Thompson will have had crossover appeal, but I don't know how to quantify "lots" in this case.

[NeederNodder]

Trump tweeting about this will definitely help the Democrats.

[Classic Conservative]

Trump tweeting about this will definitely help the Democrats.

Why, the district voted for him by like 27 points.

[NeederNodder]

Trump tweeting about this will definitely help the Democrats.

Why, the district voted for him by like 27 points.

It shows that even the top Republican is rattled by a lost seat in Deep Red Kansas.

[Maxwell]

if Democrats felt like being DIRTY TRICKSTERS, they would do a fake robocall with someone who does a mean Sam Brownback impression, with Fake Brownback giving an endorsement to Estes. That would be  Tricky Dick Tricky

[retromike22]

Come help phonebank for James Thompson!

http://www.votejamesthompson.com/phonebank

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  4m4 minutes ago
We expect 70%+ of the #KS04 votes to come from Sedgwick County -- home to Wichita. Trump won this county 56-37% in November.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  3m3 minutes ago
Thompson needs to run up the #KS04 score in downtown Wichita: precincts 105-122, 306-310, 607-609 and 615. Clinton won these 62-28%.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Clinton won these two dozen counties by 8,000+ votes -- a small prize in a district she lost by 76,000. So Thompson needs a turnout spike.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  1m1 minute ago
What does Estes need in #KS04? Maintain 2016 turnout levels in Wichita suburbs and small surrounding cities in Sedgwick County.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  24s24 seconds ago
Some Estes precincts I'm watching in #KS04 are 214-228 in the east, 410-425 in the south, 506-539 in the west and 622-623 in the north.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Watch smaller surrounding #KS04 cities, where Trump raked in votes -- like Derby, Afron, Haysville, Morton, Ninnescah, Salem and Sherman.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  1m1 minute ago
Those Wichita suburban precincts and smaller  cities in Sedgwick County gave Trump almost half his 2016 margin of victory in #KS04.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  1m1 minute ago
Other counties that matter are Butler, Harvey, Cowley and Sumner -- which account for one in five #KS04 votes. The other 12 are too small.

[The Other Castro]

ALL THE LINKSSSSSS

Sedgwick County results page:
http://www.sedgwickcounty.org/elections/election_results/SpecGen17/index.html

AP results by County:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/KS_US_House_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

KS SoS website results:
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html

DDHQ results:
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/kansas-4th-congressional-district-special-election/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's how Trump did in each county, according to the results here on Atlas. The # of precincts in each one, per AP, are listed in ()'s:

Barber (23): Won, 83%-12%
Butler (41): Won, 69%-24%
Chautauqua (15): Won, 83%-13%
Comanche (5): Won, 82%-12%
Cowley (59): Won, 66%-28%
Edwards (15): Won, 79%-17%
Elk (11): Won, 83%-12%
Greenwood (19): Won, 76%-17%
Harper (16): Won, 77%-15%
Harvey (38): Won, 58%-34%
Kingman (28): Won, 76%-18%
Kiowa (12): Won, 83%-11%
Pawnee (5): Won, 72%-22%
Pratt (12): Won, 74%-20%
Sedgwick (257): Won, 54%-36%
Stafford (24): Won, 79%-16%
Sumner (40): Won, 72%-21%


Polls close in less than 90 minutes.

[The Other Castro]

If the race is within 10, Thompson is probably winning Sedgwick County.

[VPH]

If the race is within 10, Thompson is probably winning Sedgwick County.

Davis lost by 6 without winning Sedgwick.