Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Figueira]

Unsurprisingly, Gomez and Ahn will advance to the runoff.

With so many Democrats and only one Republican, is getting 15-20% and a spot in the runoff (to be killed, I know) too much to ask for?

This didn't even come close to happening. The Republican candidate came in eighth with 3.76% of the vote, lower than the Green candidate.

Republicans seem to have no bench in this district. Even in many liberal Bay Area districts they are routinely able to get 20-25% of vote (which would be enough for runoff), but - not here..

There's probably a combined effect of:

Low Republican support in the district generally
Low Republican interest because they know they can't win
Low Republican interest because Trump
A terrible candidate
Republicans voting for one of the Democrats because they know that's where the real action is happening.

[mds32]

Sad that the GOP candidate couldn't even beat the Green candidate in the race.

[Vega]

Sad that the GOP candidate couldn't even beat the Green candidate in the race.

The Green candidate, Kenneth Mejia, was better than average. It's not that surprising.

[Anna Komnene]

I wouldn't be surprised if a few Republicans hopped on the Ahn train.  He is fairly liberal on several issues too but has small business experience and is apparently a staunch supporter of Israel.  Probably the closest person to Republican positions they could possibly get in this district.

[Figueira]

I wouldn't be surprised if a few Republicans hopped on the Ahn train.  He is fairly liberal on several issues too but has small business experience and is apparently a staunch supporter of Israel.  Probably the closest person to Republican positions they could possibly get in this district.

I would imagine they would do so if they vote at all (which I highly doubt many will) but there aren't enough Republicans in the district to make a difference unless it's already very close.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OP has been updated with information on the next special election.

[Maxwell]

Republicans are not much of a factor in this district, so talking about them is pointless.

lol at Campoverdi doing way worse than even the Sexual Harasser, the True Leftist, the Green Party candidate, and the Republican.

[Ebsy]

I think the KS-04 result is going to be very interesting.

[Maxwell]

I think the KS-04 result is going to be very interesting.

I mean Ron Estes is actually having to run ads against James Thompson, which is pretty bad in and of itself considering this is an R+14 district.

[Heisenberg]

Estes is going to win easily. I mean, how much have the Democrats even spent here?

This. I think Estes just want to take it seriously and be safe.

[Ebsy]

I guess I should clarify: of course I don't think Democrats are going to win KS-04 in a special election. Still, Kansas swung against Trump, and it is where I would expect anti-Trump backlash to start showing itself. The KS-04 results could be instructive for how the competitive races in KS-02 and KS-03 will go in 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

Estes is going to win easily. I mean, how much have the Democrats even spent here?

This. I think Estes just want to take it seriously and be safe.

It's probably the right thing to do. Special elections can be unpredictable.

I could definitely see KS-03 being competitive in a bad year for the GOP, but KS-02 seems like a stretch.

[Gass3268]

Early vote suggests this could be much closer than expected, which would fit into the post election day trend of Democratic over performance. Estes will obviously win, but the swing from election day 2016 will be noticeable.

[Figueira]

Didn't KS-04 swing toward Trump?

I'm thinking this could be a reverse of the MA special Senate election...of 2013. Not 2010, sadly.

[smoltchanov]

It was about 60-30 Pompeo in November. So, even a 15% loss will be a sort of victory for Democrats, whose base is very energized now. But Estes will, obviously, win. For Democrats to have a chance in such districts two things must happen: a very fringe lunatic Repubican candidate AND very moderate and well-known Democratic one (with crossover appeal). Neither happened in this race.

[Mr.Phips]

How the hell did Dan Glickman hold this seat for 18 years (1976 to 1994)?   He wasn't even a moderate Dem as he was a strong supporter of single payer healthcare.

[Ebsy]

Alexis Levinson‏:
Some big last minute TV spending from Rs in the #ks04 special (Pompeo's seat):

RNC - $92,000
NRCC - $67,111

Issue for Rs in the Kansas special isn't on the level of Georgia — but a lot of Rs watching race expect a much closer race than you'd assume

It's a narrative issue for GOP. #ks04 elex is Tuesday 4/11. A close race in a super R state is a bad narrative for Rs one wk before #GA06.

Just bc it's KS, doesn't mean it's exempt from nat'l trends: liberals are super fired up and Rs know they have to deal with that #ks04

And maybe more importantly, KS Gov. Brownback remains super unpopular. And that's a weight on any R running there. #ks04

[The Other Castro]

Obviously this won't happen, but Dems accidentally winning here because everyone forgot about the race would be hilarious.

[Webnicz]

How the hell did Dan Glickman hold this seat for 18 years (1976 to 1994)?   He wasn't even a moderate Dem as he was a strong supporter of single payer healthcare.

Could be why he lost re election in the '94 midterm...

[Mr.Phips]

How the hell did Dan Glickman hold this seat for 18 years (1976 to 1994)?   He wasn't even a moderate Dem as he was a strong supporter of single payer healthcare.

Could be why he lost re election in the '94 midterm...

But you'd think a candidate like Glickman would have lost in 1978(after one term) in a district this Republican rather than last nearly 20 years.

[TheSaint250]

The only poll I could find has Estes up by 24 points (56-32-4).  I think GOP does just want to be safe here.  It's also good to improve Estes's margins because a large margin would limit the amount of people saying that there is a large anti-Trump wave.  however, since this is a red district, GA-06 will be the real test.

[Gass3268]

Cook shifted this from Safe R to Likely R yesterday.

[Gass3268]

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[The Other Castro]

Sweating like a dog!

[Brittain33]

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Hey, remember when Dick Cheney went to "South Memphis" to campaign for a Republican in a special election in MS-1?