What is the ceiling that either party can get in a Presidential Election these days? For popular vote I'll say 52-48 for the GOP and 54-46 for the Democrats assuming there's no third parties. Let's post maps though and see what you have. I see MT as the ceiling for Democrats and ME as the ceiling for Republicans.
The "ceiling" isn't really the point. The two parties seem to have a behind-the-scenes agreement to operate on a 20/20/10 system. An estimate of 20 states for Republicans (even in presidential elections the party loses); an estimate 20 states for Democrats (even in presidential elections the party loses); and an estimate of 10 states which will be God (er, "battlegrounds").
It's become boring.
At this point, if this is going to continue for at least a few more presidential election cycles, the answer to your questions is, "Who cares?!"
