CO-SurveyUSA: Tied race

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SurveyUSA is up to its usual games, I see.

You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

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Weird that Obama is doing better in Florida than in Colorado.

Not really.  Colorado has always been one of Romney's best pick-up opportunities.  Because of the state's small size and, thus, low electoral value, and also because of the bogus beltway narrative about Hispanics and young people apparently taking over the state, people have wrongly assumed that Colorado would be a reach for Romney.

It never was, it isn't now, and it definitely won't be on Election Day.  While I'm far from confident about Romney's chances nationally, people will be genuinely surprised that Colorado ends up with a PVI of R +3 or R+4 in November.

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SurveyUSA is up to its usual games, I see.

You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Some people who are registered voters (even "active" registered voters) don't vote. This should not be a difficult concept.

In a state where Republicans always outnumber Democrats in elections, and where the GOP has actually made real gains in the voter rolls since '08 (when, yet again, more Republicans voted than Democrats), why would 2012 be the most explosive year for Democratic turnout in Colorado ever?  The notion defies logic.

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Did they poll the marijuana referendum?

Yes.  The Post will release those results probably sometime this weekend.  I really don't expect it to pass.  My hunch is that it's polling in the mid-to-upper 40s, as it has been for PPP for a while.  If it isn't well above 50% now, it won't get there before November.  The popular Democratic governor came out against it this week, which will only deepen opposition and will almost definitely bring along some Democrats who have been on the fence about it. 

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Denver Post was less Obama friendly in 2008. CO is one of the states Dems generally overperform on election day. Polls had 2008 at 4-6 points and Obama won by 9 while every 2010 poll had Bennet losing. Lean D

I think Colorado is more of a tossup than Ohio. Obama could very well win Obio by 5 points, and only win Colorado by 3. I don't totally buy into the "College Students and Hispanics Are Pushing Colorado Left" meme. It's happening, but not nearly as fast as some think it is.

Dems always outperform the polls in CO and NV and there's no reason to believe it won't happen this time. Also, the pot amendment is going to motivate young people so their turnout will probably be up.

Check out the crosstabs.  In a head-to-head match-up, Romney actually has a narrow lead in Colorado among voters aged 18-29.

http://www.denverpost.com/nationalpolitics/ci_21543908/denver-post-presidential-poll-results-coming-at-noon

And the president's lead among Hispanics is only 21 points.

So even assuming the whole "Latino/young people invasion" theory, they're actually moving towards the GOP compared to past years.  Even if you throw Johnson into the mix, Obama and Romney are still tied.

Peel beneath the surface, and you've got some ugly crosstabs for the president in Colorado.