Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[IAMCANADIAN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

[IAMCANADIAN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

Clinton lost this 59-35

Yes that is true. However, margins are up from 2018 even though all polling shows Republicans are significantly behind their 2018 numbers.

This is not the only special election to show this either. I may make a post about the topic of special election results after this is over. It clashes with the media narrative.

[IAMCANADIAN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

Clinton lost this 59-35

Yes that is true. However, margins are up from 2018 even though all polling shows Republicans are significantly behind their 2018 numbers.

This is not the only special election to show this either. I may make a post about the topic of special election results after this is over. It clashes with the media narrative.

Pretty sure this district was only close in 2018 because of Collins' scandals

Yes that is true, but I believe that there may be some leftover dislike for the republicans from the Collins' Scandal that would keep the numbers lower than it should be.

See the California 25 Special election to see what happens after a candidate had to resign due to scandal.

[IAMCANADIAN]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

I think we should wait for the final results. I don't think they will be as democrat favored as some are saying.

[IAMCANADIAN]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1285277732235104258

so we have not received the final results but Chris Jacobs is being sworn in?

How ridiculous is that.