2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

There is another N.J. Republican in this 2017 race that is gaining steam on a grassroots level. Hirsh Singh, who is an engineer and a businessman. I can see Singh being third place behind Guadango and Ciattarelli.

Singh should run against Menendez in 2018. The NJGOP bench is there, but Christie has been the head of the NJGOP since 2009.

Indeed I've been getting a lot of Facebook ads about him, more than any of the Dem candidates combined. Probably because I'm Asian with friends who liked his Facebook page. Then again, the fact that I'm getting ads as a Democrat calls into question how competent his campaign is.

[Pollster]

I voted for Jim Johnson at 9:30 AM this morning. I was voter #4 in my precinct. It hadn't started raining yet.

Turnout is going to be embarrassingly low.

[Suburbia]

I voted for Jim Johnson at 9:30 AM this morning. I was voter #4 in my precinct. It hadn't started raining yet.

Turnout is going to be embarrassingly low.

True. Turnout was low in 2013, when it was Christie vs. Buono. It's sad, but the New Jersey electorate is always low turnout.

[Pollster]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

[houseonaboat]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

Media desert. More people read the NY Times or the Philadelphia Inquirer than read the Star Ledger -- which means that more people will know who Bill de Blasio is than who, say, Ras Baraka is.

[Virginiá]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

fwiw, off-off-year turnout in Virginia's gubernatorial elections tends to rival midterm turnout. For instance, 2013 had even higher turnout than VA's 2014 elections. The election laws regarding voter access are actual pretty similar for NJ and VA, so for NJ, it is either a local culture of low turnout, relatively non-competitive elections, or both.

I'd also note that if/once Democrats unify the NJ state government next year, I'd fully expect a large election reform package to fly through the legislature. They were already pushing hard under Christie with some substantial changes, but obviously that didn't take. After those get implemented, I could easily see turnout getting a boost in future NJ elections.

[houseonaboat]

The Rebovich Institute, which tends to be pretty good with this stuff, is projecting 500,000 Democratic primary voters and 350,000 Republican primary voters.

[pikachu]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

Media desert. More people read the NY Times or the Philadelphia Inquirer than read the Star Ledger -- which means that more people will know who Bill de Blasio is than who, say, Ras Baraka is.

Is it really that bad though? I always had the impression nj.com and 101.5 had a solid following. I feel like the off-year election + seemingly uncompetitive primary are bigger issues.

[Gass3268]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

fwiw, off-off-year turnout in Virginia's gubernatorial elections tends to rival midterm turnout. For instance, 2013 had even higher turnout than VA's 2014 elections. The election laws regarding voter access are actual pretty similar for NJ and VA, so for NJ, it is either a local culture of low turnout, relatively non-competitive elections, or both.

I'd also note that if/once Democrats unify the NJ state government next year, I'd fully expect a large election reform package to fly through the legislature. They were already pushing hard under Christie with some substantial changes, but obviously that didn't take. After those get implemented, I could easily see turnout getting a boost in future NJ elections.

They should move their elections to even years with the Governor race coinciding with Presidential years.

[Suburbia]

I just voted. Changed affiliation to Democratic to vote for Phil Murphy. I think he can fix NJ, he seems like a good government liberal. I'm still an Independent, but a registered Democrat. There are plenty people like me out there.

[Anna Komnene]

I just voted. Changed affiliation to Democratic to vote for Phil Murphy. I think he can fix NJ, he seems like a good government liberal. I'm still an Independent, but a registered Democrat. There are plenty people like me out there.

I sympathize as someone from a fellow closed primary state.    I feel like the parties would have a better idea of how many people actually ID with them if they didn't force people to join in order to vote in primaries.

[Suburbia]

I just voted. Changed affiliation to Democratic to vote for Phil Murphy. I think he can fix NJ, he seems like a good government liberal. I'm still an Independent, but a registered Democrat. There are plenty people like me out there.

I sympathize as someone from a fellow closed primary state.    I feel like the parties would have a better idea of how many people actually ID with them if they didn't force people to join in order to vote in primaries.

True. One thing that I liked about Bernie's campaign in 2016 is that he wanted more open primaries.

[LabourJersey]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

fwiw, off-off-year turnout in Virginia's gubernatorial elections tends to rival midterm turnout. For instance, 2013 had even higher turnout than VA's 2014 elections. The election laws regarding voter access are actual pretty similar for NJ and VA, so for NJ, it is either a local culture of low turnout, relatively non-competitive elections, or both.

I'd also note that if/once Democrats unify the NJ state government next year, I'd fully expect a large election reform package to fly through the legislature. They were already pushing hard under Christie with some substantial changes, but obviously that didn't take. After those get implemented, I could easily see turnout getting a boost in future NJ elections.

I also think political culture plays into this. Compared to Virginia (and especially NOVA), New Jersey is definitely more apathetic to state politics as a result of disenchantment with the perceived corruption of Trenton.

[houseonaboat]

A few articles:

The Norcross machine doing work: https://www.insidernj.com/camden-vbms-show-big-advantage-murphy-dem-rivals/

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https://www.insidernj.com/fulop-says-jersey-city-overachieving-terms-turnout/

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For the record, the HCDO is VERY good at turning out voters -- the unofficial deal is that you're promised a job with a pension if you can bring out a certain number of voters (think in the hundreds). Murphy should run up his score here

Most importantly, one of the best political bosses in New Jersey, definitely in Hudson County, Brian Stack, has apparently promised at least 10k votes for Murphy and is apparently surpassing expectations. https://www.insidernj.com/ld33-flashpoint-stack-attack-target-amid-flat-feeling-polling-places-around-state/

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And my favorite: https://www.insidernj.com/paterson-true-story-hour-ago-election-day-duffys/

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT results page: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-primary-elections

Polls close in an hour.

[Suburbia]

It is the off-year election that does it - I've never seen the reasoning behind it.

fwiw, off-off-year turnout in Virginia's gubernatorial elections tends to rival midterm turnout. For instance, 2013 had even higher turnout than VA's 2014 elections. The election laws regarding voter access are actual pretty similar for NJ and VA, so for NJ, it is either a local culture of low turnout, relatively non-competitive elections, or both.

I'd also note that if/once Democrats unify the NJ state government next year, I'd fully expect a large election reform package to fly through the legislature. They were already pushing hard under Christie with some substantial changes, but obviously that didn't take. After those get implemented, I could easily see turnout getting a boost in future NJ elections.

I also think political culture plays into this. Compared to Virginia (and especially NOVA), New Jersey is definitely more apathetic to state politics as a result of disenchantment with the perceived corruption of Trenton.

This. Corruption is a big issue in this state. Sen. Menendez won reelection in 2012 despite corrupt ties with the Hudson County Democratic machine and other issues.

New Jersey voters are always apathetic. They should be more engaged.

[Suburbia]

A few articles:

The Norcross machine doing work: https://www.insidernj.com/camden-vbms-show-big-advantage-murphy-dem-rivals/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.insidernj.com/fulop-says-jersey-city-overachieving-terms-turnout/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For the record, the HCDO is VERY good at turning out voters -- the unofficial deal is that you're promised a job with a pension if you can bring out a certain number of voters (think in the hundreds). Murphy should run up his score here

Most importantly, one of the best political bosses in New Jersey, definitely in Hudson County, Brian Stack, has apparently promised at least 10k votes for Murphy and is apparently surpassing expectations. https://www.insidernj.com/ld33-flashpoint-stack-attack-target-amid-flat-feeling-polling-places-around-state/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And my favorite: https://www.insidernj.com/paterson-true-story-hour-ago-election-day-duffys/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Norcross machine is crucial in South Jersey. They delivered for James Florio in 1989, however, they couldn't in 1981 against Kean Sr. and 1993 against Whitman.

If Menendez goes down in 2018, I can see N.J. Democrats choosing Norcross over Torricelli or Holt, or Pallone.

[Lord Admirale]

Here are the live results.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/live-results-new-jersey-governor-primary-race/529395/

Enjoy!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Vote coming in:

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jack Ciattarelli
293   48.3%
Kim Guadagno
204   33.6
Hirsh Singh
42   6.9
Joseph Rullo
38   6.3
Steven Rogers
30   4.9
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
189   52.1%
John Wisniewski
65   17.9
Jim Johnson
53   14.6
Raymond Lesniak
41   11.3
 Others   15   4.1
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

[MT Treasurer]

First results out of Hunterdon County:

48.3% Ciattarelli
33.6% Guadagno

52.1% Murphy
17.9% Wisniewski
14.6% Johnson

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Guadagno in the lead as the early vote continues to drift in:

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
770   39.9%
Jack Ciattarelli
682   35.3
Joseph Rullo
209   10.8
Steven Rogers
181   9.4
Hirsh Singh
88   4.6
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
1,939   67.6%
John Wisniewski
373   13.0
Jim Johnson
204   7.1
Raymond Lesniak
160   5.6
 Others   191   6.7
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

[Lord Admirale]

Ciattarelli is coming much closer than expected. Only four points separating him from Guadagno.

[MT Treasurer]

Ciattarelli takes a 3-point lead again, Murphy at 64%.

[cvparty]

man there is absolutely no enthusiasm in this race

[Holmes]

There are a lot of uncontested primaries in the state leg.