Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: February 12, 2020, 08:13:15 PM » |
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His coalition in 2016 was 70-75% white and 60% male: closer in composition to the Republican Party electorate than the Democratic Party electorate.
In 2020, his coalition is roughly 50% non-white, 50% female. That's a radical shift.
Polls thus far in IA/NH had him doing better because of name recognition and past behavior in the lead up to voting, with those persuadable voters breaking last-minute to other candidates for a variety of reasons.
His base isn't disproportionately white and rural this go around, so his performances in disproportionately white and rural states aren't going to be as impressive.
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