Italy 2013: The official thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Italy 2013: The official thread  (Read 232965 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: June 05, 2012, 11:07:43 AM »
5 Stelle polls 15-20% now ?

WTF ?

(Didn't follow Italy for quite a while now, so what happened briefly ?)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2012, 03:17:12 PM »
What are the chances Renzi wins the run-off ?

It would be good if one of the younger ones take over instead of those used corropt assholes that plague almost every Italian party.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2012, 08:24:22 AM »
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2012, 08:12:34 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 02, 2012, 08:24:22 AM
My prediction: Renzi to win 52-48.

When are the results coming in ?

Hmm, I thought he could pull an upset.

Probably I didn't follow the primary enough ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2012, 11:39:11 AM »
The current polls:

30-35% PD
13-20% M5S
15-20% PdL
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2012, 10:32:21 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 09:27:21 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2012, 10:35:43 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 10:34:18 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:32:21 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 09:27:21 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2012, 10:39:53 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 10:37:20 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:35:43 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 10:34:18 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 28, 2012, 10:32:21 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 28, 2012, 09:27:21 AM
Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/

Yeah, it looks definitely like the prediction market, not like an actual poll.

They need to remove it from Wiki.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2012, 10:45:25 AM »
If you need the latest polls, check here:

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/ListaSondaggi.aspx?st=SONDAGGI

PS: You need to click on a survey where it says "INTENZIONI DI VOTO" and then after you clicked it on "DOMANDE" (questions).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2012, 01:14:55 AM »
Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2012, 02:54:57 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 29, 2012, 07:41:03 PM
Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

How would I know it if it was a ".de" domain in your link ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2013, 04:00:17 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2013, 03:51:59 PM
This is clearly the face of someone who will take the campaign trail by storm! The piazzas will be packed with delirious fans.



The most overrated election this year. Focus on Austria instead. Much more



Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2013, 01:22:27 AM »
10% gap only ?

If the Italians elect Berlusconi again, the country should probably be put under tutelage.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2013, 09:49:09 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2013, 09:33:55 AM
Not sure why these weren't posted: two new polls show this is getting a lot closer...

SpinCon:

Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 31.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12.2%
M5S - 10.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.6%
Others - 7.7%

SWG:

Italia. Bene Comune - 33%
Center-right - 27.2%
M5S - 16.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.7%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.4%
Others - 3.9%

Roll Eyes
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2013, 02:07:04 AM »
Prediction: Berlusconi will win again.

Just recently, a left-managed bank in Siena did blow up and this drags Bersani and Monti down.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2013, 03:58:39 PM »
The Italian people are utter idiots if they elect Berlusconi again.

But I'd still wait for the Carinthia result the week after Italy, so they are likely not the only ones.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2013, 08:58:06 AM »
Has anyone noticed how Berlusconi bought Mario Balotelli recently for his AC Milan to win the close Lombardy election ? It is thought that the purchase might win him a few points there and therefore the election.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2013, 09:07:40 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 03, 2013, 09:04:52 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 03, 2013, 08:58:06 AM
Has anyone noticed how Berlusconi bought Mario Balotelli recently for his AC Milan to win the close Lombardy election ? It is thought that the purchase might win him a few points there and therefore the election.

I only mentioned this twice already.

An analyst suggested he could gain up to four hundred thousand extra votes. Seems totally ridiculous to me but who knows?

I read it in the Standard today:

http://derstandard.at/1358305374608/Balotelli-der-Wahlhelfer

I didn't even hear before that Balotelli changed to Milan, but yeah, he seems popular enough to help Berlusconi there.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2013, 04:25:43 AM »
New ISPO poll:

PD    30,8
Sel    4,9
Altri di centrosinistra    0,9

Totale coalizione di centrosinistra    36,6

Pdl    19,1
Lega Nord    4,9
La Destra    1,6
Fratelli d'Italia - Centrodestra Nazionale    2
Altri di centrodestra    0,5

Totale coalizione di centrodestra    28,1

Udc    3,8
Fli    1,1
Scelta Civica con Monti per l'Italia    9,7
Movimento 5 Stelle    13,6
Rivoluzione Civile    4,6
Amnistia giustizia e libertà - Pannella    1,1
Fare per Fermare il Declino    1,3
Altro partito    0,1
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2013, 04:40:09 AM »
The left-margin declined by 2% though in the past week from about 10.5% in their Jan. 24 poll to about 8.5% now in the latest poll.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2013, 12:47:11 PM »
A lot of sondaggis today:





...

ISPO:

Pdl 21,2
Lega Nord 5,2
La Destra 1,4
FdI 1,5
Altri Cdx 0,5

Totale Cdx 29,8

Pd 29,9
Sel 4,2
CD 0,8

Totale Csx 34,9

Lista Monti 9,5
Udc 2
Fli 1

Totale CxM 12,5

M5S 16,4

RC Ingroia 3,9

FiD Giannino 1

Amnistia 0,8

http://www.meridianamagazine.org/20130206/il-sondaggio-ispo-conferma-la-rimonta-del-centrodestra-ora-a-5-da-bersani-cresce-ancora-grillo-rischia-monti/#.URKWtoGnt8E

...

IPR Marketing:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2013, 12:49:58 PM »
Compared with the previous ISPO poll that I posted 1 page before, the Left lost 1.7% and the Right gained 1.7% ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2013, 10:24:05 AM »
Remember that in the next 2 weeks, polls will be prohibited in Italy.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2013, 10:22:54 AM »
There are no real GOTV efforts here as well.

Once in a while the parties send some goodies like pencils/lighters etc. with a party logo and an additional letter to young and first-time voters to encourage them to vote.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2013, 12:13:18 PM »
Theoretically yes, but this is not enforced.
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