Italy 2013: The official thread

[Iannis]

Well, he's not really running. He's encouraging parties to back his agenda and authorizing them to use him as a symbol, but he won't himself campaign. Right?

No he will run as candidate to the premiership and head of his coalition, so he will be a candidate prime minister along with Bersani, Berlusconi, one from M5S and possibly others (Ingroia?)

[Keystone Phil]

I was just looking at the election Wiki page and noticed this new party - "Orange Movement." One of the leaders (Ingroia) is mentioned above but the other is de Magistris. Why did he leave IdV?

[Keystone Phil]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

[Zuza]

VTR (Monti) - 14.2%

How such a huge leap can be explained?

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

[Keystone Phil]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/

Yeah, it looks definitely like the prediction market, not like an actual poll.

They need to remove it from Wiki.

[Tender Branson]

If you need the latest polls, check here:

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/ListaSondaggi.aspx?st=SONDAGGI

PS: You need to click on a survey where it says "INTENZIONI DI VOTO" and then after you clicked it on "DOMANDE" (questions).

[Andrea]

Monti met UDC, FLI and Italia Futura today.

They decided for a single list at the Senate (predictable because of the thresholds there) but for a coalition at the House. The old motto "more lists, more votes"

Holy Roman Church endorsed Monti. No surprise.

Tabacci presented its list called Centro Democratico (Democratic Centre) in support of Bersani.

Silvio's divorce settlement has been published: the former wife will get 3,000,000€ each month.

[Keystone Phil]

A truly fascinating country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm sure Monti will regret running. He probably doesn't realize that the admiration of financial and political elites isn't representative of his popularity among regular Italians.

[Andrea]

IPR Marketing poll for TG3

PD 31%
SEL 4.5%
Other Centre-Left (Tabacci and co) 2%

Monti List 10%
UDC 3.5%
FLI 2.5%

PDL 16.5%
Lega 5.5%
La Destra 2%

M5S 14%

Orange Movement 2.5%
IDV Di Pietro 2%
Pannella/Bonino 1.5%

I don't know the exact wording but the question with PM candidates named resulted in Bersani 37% Monti 24% Berlusconi 24%


Because of new Census figures, there has been a change in seats allocation by regions.

House

Piemonte I (Turin) -1 seat
Lombardy II +2
Lombardy III +1
Trentino Alto Adige +1
Veneto I +2
Liguria -1
Emilia +2
Lazio I (Rome) +2
Lazio II (everything else) +1
Campania I (Naples) -1
Campania II (everything else) -1
Puglia -2
Calabria -2
Sicily I -1
Sicily II -1
Sardinia -2

Senate

Lombardy +2
Emilia +1
Lazio +1
Campania -1
Puglia -1
Sicily -1
Sardinia -1

[Keystone Phil]

I was wondering about seat allocation changes and was about to ask about it. Thank.   Sad to see such seat loss in the south.

I'm surprised Berlusconi is polling that high in PM preference.

Also, didn't Lega say they won't run with PdL as long as Berlusconi is the standard bearer?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has Monti just tried to refound the DC's?

[Barnes]

Has Monti just tried to refound the DC's?

Seems like it; Italian politics never cease to fascinate.

EDIT: Sorry about that ridiculous typo; iPhones, on the other hand, continue to misinterpret words. 

[Tender Branson]

Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?

They won't need to. PD+SEL+other left will have their own majority.

Italy's election system is rigged so that the largest party/coalition automaticly wins 54% of the seats. The left will have a solid majority of their owm. No need to compromise with Monti in the centre.   

[Andrea]

Also, didn't Lega say they won't run with PdL as long as Berlusconi is the standard bearer?

Yes, they said so this week. But I don't think they have made a final decision yet.

Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?

They won't need to. PD+SEL+other left will have their own majority.

Italy's election system is rigged so that the largest party/coalition automaticly wins 54% of the seats. The left will have a solid majority of their owm. No need to compromise with Monti in the centre.   

At the House, yest. At the Senate, it is more complicated. The seats bonus is determined at regional level (winning coalition in region X gets 55% of seats in region X and so on).
It's tricky there for the PD & co if they don't carry 1 between Lombardia, Veneto or Sicilia (and they need to win Campania). If Lega goes alone, it will make the task much much easier.

A difference compared to 2006 and 2008 it's that at the time in the region they lost they almost won all the seats destined to opposition...this time they will have to divide them with at least 2 other blocks.
On the other hand, the fact there are many more competitive lists allows PD to win a couple of regions without needing high %.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has Monti just tried to refound the DC's?

Emphasis on "tried", though.

[minionofmidas]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

It's a market.

And despite the website domain being registered in Germany, it's actually an Austrian company.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto? Sicily seems most likely. From the little I know, I'd assume Campania is with PD.

[Tender Branson]

Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

How would I know it if it was a ".de" domain in your link ?

[Andrea]

In a couple of places (for ex Turin) PD incumbents did really bad in yesterday's vote.
Some youngish faces in Lombardy too. Civati won in Monza, Guerini in Lodi, 33 year old Braga is reconfirmed in Como, a 27 years old girl carried Lecco. Veteran Barbara Pollastrini came out on top in Milan but behind her in good positions there are new people like Quartapelle, LaForgia, Mauri.
Renzi's spin doctor and former TV producer Giorgio Gori flopped in Bergamo (predictable. I had him at best third, he finished 4th).
Rosy Bind has apparently won in Reggio Calabria.
Votes from Naples are as slow as usual to come in.