I think you guys are seriously underestimating Cruz. Of all the candidates with a chance, save maybe Paul, he has the most devoted supporters.
He probably won't get the nomination, but yeah he should have some consistent support levels. Maybe 2008 Huckabee would be a good comparison.
That would mean Cruz winning the Iowa caucus, which would be a terrible event in the history of thsi nation.
Iowa, at least on the Republican side, has generally been won by terrible people. Ted Cruz would actually be a huge step up.