The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Likely Voter]

There was a massive selloff today, it appears, with everybody losing their positioning and Trump's share being the only one to increase. Why did Thune's share drop the most, though? It appears he lost about five points.

maybe because there was article today in Politico that implies Thune is leaning towards staying in Senate, or at least very much on fence

[Likely Voter]

Wow Pawlenty jumped.  I wonder how long that will last.

T-Paw jumped because he is the only one that announced.

When everyone else announces, it will even out.

Not really. The 'likely to run' prices show that for most of the candidates, they are more likely than not to run - so that is priced into their win nomination price as well. Most would see a modest bump if they announced. The only candidates that would see a significant jump if they announced would be Palin or Huckabee (Daniels to a lesser extent), and of course some of the 'I'm not running' candidates like Rubio and Christie.

[Likely Voter]

What justifies the Daniels pricing? He is no more likely to run than Huckabee and Palin and would be far behind either of them in likelyhood of winning if they jumped in.

Kind of funny that Bachmann has jumped up to an 8% chance to win nomination, but not even priced to win it all.  People are willing to bet on that, but there seems no price worth betting on a President Bachmann.

[Likely Voter]

Daniels is not undervalued because he is still 50/50 on getting in. If he announces he is in, expect to see his value jump to 2nd in the low 20s, which is just about right.

[Likely Voter]

So the fourth place guy on Intrade ended up as the GOP nominee. So I guess it is time to get ready for Herman Cain

[Likely Voter]

I think too much attention is paid to the low-priced Intrade "stocks". Intrade is not a truly efficient market, especially at the the low end. The fees and rules of putting up money combined with the low volume means that the market doesn't really reflect the true value of the securities like the real stock market.

[Likely Voter]

Santorum is a relic of an older time, when a Republican's first duty was to "spreading freedom" or "promoting God" over "shrinking government", and where a Republican who wanted to increase spending wouldn't be lynched. He also comes off as a bigoted bible-thumper (with the bonus of being a Catholic, so actual Evangelicals will have problems backing him regardless). Thus, he can't become a flavour of the month (unless he sees the light in small government or something).

Trust me, none of those reasons are why Santorum hasn't been giving a chance...rather it is because he was a hack (who seemed to look for opportunities to be a hack) while in the Senate...therefore, no one like me is going to give him a chance.  He's burned his bridges.

This again proves my point behind the Cain surge. Perry, Santorum and Bachmann all have records in government that can be picked apart and revealed to be lacking purity. Cain is a clean slate and a pundit. He just has to pander to what the dittoheads want to hear...and it is working

[Likely Voter]

Maybe the market is just reacting rationally to the notion of Paul winning Iowa. If Newt loses IA, it is pretty much over for him