Norway election, 11th September 2017

[DavidB.]

Being more inept than the PVV, truly an achievement. Tip of the hat, Progress.

[DavidB.]

Ap 66%
Sp 59%
Frp 58%
H
MDG
KRF
V
R-SV tie

Would vote Frp anyway.

[DavidB.]

Are there any livestreams?

[DavidB.]

Are there any livestreams?

https://www.nrk.no/valg2017/

It works outside Norway too, because I can watch it.

Works here too, thanks.

[DavidB.]

Hoping for a Shy Tory effect, but it's really 50/50. Didn't think I would end up hoping that V reach the threshold.

[DavidB.]

27.3% voted early, which is an all-time high.

[DavidB.]

Government bloc wins majority

Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.

[DavidB.]

Very happy with my prediction, if true ...

Very happy with the result, if true

[DavidB.]

85-84 now... Ap seems to have done better and H worse...

[DavidB.]

TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 

Official website has it at 85-84... I really hope the prognosis is still right.

[DavidB.]

KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold

Why? Just curious.

[DavidB.]

How a night like this makes a Catholic Dutch election junkie feel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R2vT8EM2ac

[DavidB.]

Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.

[DavidB.]

Thank you, Diouf. With early voters I never know... it could theoretically also be the case that older, less mobile voters are more inclined to vote early.

Ap on track for its second-worst result ever (2001 was worse).

[DavidB.]

Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.

How does that compare to past elections and which party is that good for?

Oslo is usually a bit of a bellwether. I would say this largely confirms the national view, maybe a bit better for Ap. It was 30.4%-29.8% in 2013, so in Oslo the gap between Ap and H has increased whereas nationally it should have decreased in favor of H, but that is very well possible if one assumes that the government's vote held up better in rural areas and outside Oslo (but not sure if that's true, it may not be true...). Don't have figures for the blocs in Oslo. Also don't know whether these are complete or partial results.

Venstre now in for the first time, and suddenly it's 90-79.

[DavidB.]

Trondheim Ap 33 vs. H 21.7, 2013 36.8-24.2.

[DavidB.]

Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

[DavidB.]

V even under the threshold in Bergen, Norway's second city: 3.9%. They got 6.9% there in 2013. If these are not partial results, I don't see how they're not finished.

[DavidB.]

We are at a point where it entirely depends upon V. If they break 4%, the government has a majority. If they don't, the opposition has a incredibly weak 85 seat majority.

Yeah, this. And even if the government wins a majority, it will be a very thin one, completely depending on the V MPs, who know how supporting the previous government almost ruined their party. Will be difficult to keep together. Probably better if H do it alone for the sake of stability, but FrP won't be okay with that.

[DavidB.]

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

[DavidB.]

Did Solberg already make a speech? Haven't been watching all the time.

[DavidB.]

Ap now dangerously close to not coming in first in votes and seats. 49-45 right now, according to NRK1.

Still a 2.2% difference, that's not going to change anymore. The exitpoll was dead-on for the blocs and most parties, except that it overestimated H and underestimated V (both completely within the MoE though), which will matter internally.

[DavidB.]

Only 65% counted in Oslo. I'm not completely positive that KrF will make it...

[DavidB.]

Thanks for this, Diouf.

Solberg now going to make a speech.

[DavidB.]

So 89-80 it is.

KrF say they will not provide outside support for a new H-FrP government and that there has to be a "center-right" government, which probably means they want to be in the government too (or FrP has to be out, or both). V say they will see. So H-FrP seems off the table. All other combinations that include H are still theoretically possible.