Australia 2013 - Results thread

[morgieb]

Hasn't been a great night, but it looks more like 1996 rather than 1975. Looks like I predicted it well.

Katter in huge trouble in Kennedy. Wow.

More interesting is that Leichhardt is looking very tight.

Page is also confirmed Nationals.

[morgieb]

Bruce was given back.

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

Fowler had a massive swing in 2010, and the Liberal candidate had some major problems. It's very, very safe normally.

[morgieb]

Better in Western Sydney than I thought.

Very ordinary in Victoria though.

[morgieb]

Bandt apparently safe according to early figures.

[morgieb]

I don't understand why people are happy to see Bandt elected?

He's the most smug man.

I stand closer to the Greens than Labor, and I like third-parties to do well, so I'm happy here.

[morgieb]

Who are the 'others' in Fisher (PUP?) and could they catch the LNP candidate there (Unlikely.... but still)?

Yeah.

I think Brough's primary vote is high enough to be safe, but he may sweat if the PUP overtakes Labor.

[morgieb]

Fairfax?

Palmer looking good, but it depends on preferences, how strong will ALP/Greens/etc preferences be?

Similar case in Indi.

[morgieb]

Assuming that these results hold up, looks like an absolute lottery in the Senate. Who knows what the Motoring Enthusiasts and the Sport Party stand for? How will the LNP deal with personality cults and libertarians? Will be very interesting. LNP will be happier having a minor right majority, but still....

Why did Tasmania swing so hard away from the ALP compared to the rest of the country? Is there some sort of government policy that's particularly unpopular in Tasmania right now?

Obviously their attempts to legalise gay marriage and abortion-on-demand haven't gone down well.

Bigoted hack....

[morgieb]

Weird results for the Greens. In NSW it looks like they got flogged - big swing against them in Sydney, falling to 3rd in Grayndler....., but in Victoria it looks like they broke even - held onto Melbourne, would've won Batman most likely under 2010 preferences....

[morgieb]

The swings are really interesting - the swing will be under 1% in QLD, 3% in NSW... Al's point about looking where the swings were before ... which was my reasoning for Lingiari holding, was important wherever the ALP over-performed in 2010, they got walloped

Indeed. This feels like an aligning election, despite the change of government.

[morgieb]

Current pendulum:

ALP:

ALP Very Safe

Wills   21.3%   ALP
Grayndler   20.6%   ALP

ALP Safe

Fowler   18.3%   ALP
Gellibrand   16.8%   ALP
Gorton   16.8%   ALP
Sydney   15.5%   ALP
Scullin   15.0%   ALP
Port Adelaide   14.2%   ALP
Calwell   14.2%   ALP
Fraser   13.1%   ALP
Blaxland    12.3%   ALP
Maribyrnong   12.2%   ALP
Lalor   12.1%   ALP
Batman   11.8%   ALP^
Chifley   11.1%   ALP
Holt   10.9%   ALP
Kingston   10.3%   ALP
Cunningham   10.1%   ALP

ALP Fairly Safe

Charlton   9.9%   ALP
Newcastle    9.4%   ALP
Hotham   8.5%   ALP
Throsby   8.1%   ALP
Watson   7.5%   ALP
Corio   7.3%   ALP
Canberra   7.0%   ALP
Shortland   6.9%   ALP
McMahon   5.9%   ALP
Rankin   5.8%   ALP
Blair   5.6%   ALP
Makin   5.4%   ALP
Melbourne Ports   5.3%   ALP
Franklin   5.1%   ALP
Perth   5.0%   ALP

ALP Marginal

Ballarat   4.5%   ALP
Isaacs   4.2%   ALP
Greenway   3.9%   ALP
Hunter   3.9%   ALP
Oxley   3.9%   ALP
Fremantle   3.8%   ALP
Wakefield   3.6%   ALP
Kingsford Smith    3.2%   ALP
Griffith   3.1%   ALP
Richmond   3.0%   ALP
Jagajaga   3.0%   ALP
Werriwa   2.8%   ALP
Brand   2.7%   ALP
Adelaide   2.6%   ALP
Chisholm   2.5%   ALP
Moreton   2.4%   ALP
Bendigo   1.8%   ALP
Lingiari   1.6%   ALP
Bruce   1.5%   ALP
Lilley   1.1%   ALP+
Parramatta   0.8%   ALP*
Barton   0.1%   ALP*
Capricornia   0.1%   ALP*
McEwen   0.1%   ALP*

LNP:

LNP Very Safe

Mallee   24.0%   NAT#
Mitchell   22.5%   LIB
Parkes   21.8%   NAT
Bradfield   21.2%   LIB
New England    21.2%   NAT
Murray   21.2%   LIB
Riverina   20.9%   NAT
Maranoa   20.8%   LNP

LNP Safe

Berowra   19.0%   LIB
Mackellar   18.9%   LIB
Moncrieff   18.4%   LNP
Wentworth   17.6%   LIB
Curtin   17.6%   LNP
Cook   16.8%   LIB
Barker   16.6%   LIB
Farrer   16.2%   LIB
Gippsland   16.2%   NAT
Calare   16.1%   NAT
North Sydney    15.6%   LIB
Warringah   15.5%   LIB
Groom   15.5%   LNP
Lyne   15.1%   NAT
Tangney   14.6%   LIB
Fadden   14.5%   LNP
Menzies   13.7%   LIB
McPherson   13.0%   LNP
Wide Bay   12.7%   LNP
Grey   12.7%   LIB
Mayo   12.5%   LIB
Moore   12.3%   LIB
McMillan   11.8%   LIB
Canning   11.8%   LIB
Forrest   11.8%   LIB
Cowper   11.7%   NAT
Wright   11.6%   LNP
Hume   11.4%   LIB
Macarthur   11.4%   LIB
Hughes   11.2%   LIB
Flinders   11.0%   LIB
Goldstein   10.5%   LIB
Kooyong   10.4%   LIB
Sturt   10.0%   LIB
Stirling   10.0%   LIB

LNP Fairly Safe

Wannon   9.8%   LIB
Paterson   9.7%   LIB
Higgins   9.7%   LIB
Bowman   9.0%   LNP
Hinkler   8.9%   LNP
Pearce   8.5%   LIB
Ryan   8.0%   LNP
Aston   8.0%   LIB
Fisher   7.9%   LNP#
Bennelong   7.6%   LIB
Dawson   7.5%   LNP
Boothby   7.2%   LIB
Cowan   7.2%   LIB
Longman   6.6%   LNP
Casey   6.6%   LIB
Dickson   6.2%   LNP
Swan   5.8%   LIB
Herbert   5.7%   LNP
Leichhardt   5.4%   LNP

LNP Marginal

Flynn   4.7%   LNP
Macquarie   4.6%   LIB
Dunkley   4.6%   LIB
Hasluck   4.5%   LIB
Brisbane   4.3%   LIB
Durack   4.2%   LIB^

*Swing required for Labor to win 2016*

Forde   4.1%   LNP
Bass   3.8%   LIB
Corangamite   3.7%   LIB
La Trobe   3.4%   LIB
Bonner   3.1%   LNP
Lindsay   2.8%   LIB
Page   2.7%   NAT
Gilmore   2.5%   LIB
Deakin   2.4%   LIB
Braddon   2.2%   LIB
Robertson   2.1%   LIB
Banks   1.9%   LIB
Hindmarsh   1.9%   LIB
Indi   1.8%   LIB^*
Lyons   1.2%   LIB+
O'Connor   1.2%   LIB^+
Solomon   1.0%   CLP*
Dobell   0.6%   LIB*
Petrie   0.5%   LNP*
Reid   0.4%   LIB*
Eden-Monaro   0.2%   LIB*
      
Other:

Other Safe

Denison   15.2%   IND

Other Fairly Safe

Melbourne   5.0%   GRN

Other Marginal

Kennedy   2.5%   KAP
Fairfax   0.9%   PUP*

Notes:

* Indicates "in doubt" (according to ABC's computer)
+ Indicates "likely" (i.e. probably safe) (according to ABC's computer)
^ Indicates a "non-traditional contest"
Bold indicates a seat changing hands.

Seats with #:

Mallee: Although the Nationals are heavily leading on a 2PP with Labor, the Liberals have come second, and it was not counted that way.
Fisher: PUP are only 3 points behind the ALP, and the LNP primary vote is on 43%, so it is theoretically possible that if they overtake the ALP the PUP will win.

Any mistakes? Anything I've missed?

[morgieb]

Who did lost 2010 Green voters go for this year? On that line, I understand why a lot of people have come to strongly dislike the Greenies since 2010, but why would people who actually voted for them in 2010 dislike them now, enough to go for other parties?

I imagine Palmer would've soaked up some of the protest vote that would usually go to the Greens.

[morgieb]

This question may have been asked and answered before, but: What does "below/above the line" mean?

In voting terms, there's a line in between the group tickets, and the individual candidates. Voting above the line means you put a "1" next to your preferred ticket, whereas below means you rank all the candidates running in the Senate of your state from 1-110 (in terms of NSW).