Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

Has anyone tried using the Interactive Mapping Tool on the various Commissions websites?

Has anyone got it to work?

[Krago]

Also, does anyone have a link to observe the Nova Scotia Virtual Hearing tonight?  I didn't realize that you had to request a link one week in advance.

[Krago]

The Newfoundland and Labrador Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission has released its initial proposal:

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nl/prop/index_e.aspx

[MaxQue]

The proper French name for Cape Spear is Cap d'Espoir. Useless commission.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not many changes proposed, and all the changes make sense except they decided to re-name three of the ridings for some reason.

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity becomes Terra Nova–The Peninsulas 🤮 The thinking here I guess is that now that all of the west coast of Conception Bay is in the riding, the old name doesn't represent the district anymore. Bonavista—Burin—Trinity—Conception is too long, I get it. Bonavista—Burin—Bay de Verde might make more sense, as it includes the names of all three peninsulas in the riding, where most of the population lives.

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame becomes Notre Dame–Bay d'Espoir. This is an improvement as I hate the fact that they just threw in the name "Central" there. Central what? I'm not sure if Bay d'Espoir or Coast of Bays is a better name for the southern part of the riding, so not sure if that is an improvement. The Central part of the riding should be covered in the name though, as that's where most of the population lives. Coast of Bays—Exploits—Notre Dame might do this, though it leaves out Gander (though Bonavista—Exploits was the name of the riding in 2004, and it included Gander, but it was quickly re-named Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, probably because Gander was excluded).  Once upon a time Gander—Grand Falls was the name of the riding before it included Bay d'Espoir or the Baie Verte peninsula, though throwing that in there would make the riding name too long, and I'm sure people in Windsor would be upset.

St. John's South—Mount Pearl becomes Cape Spear 🤮 This is the most useless change. It would be a good name if there were no alternatives, but I see nothing wrong with the current name.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't understand why you'd decide that St John's South is the riding that needs renaming when St John's East is plainly not a riding mostly made up of eastern bits of St John's.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't understand why you'd decide that St John's South is the riding that needs renaming when St John's East is plainly not a riding mostly made up of eastern bits of St John's.

Also looking at the map, why keep SJ East but not South? This effectively says "were keeping the seats named after the city, but not really," making it seem like there only is one side of the city.

[Hatman 🍁]

The orientation of St. John's is weird, but it's always been divided this way, more or less. The east end of the city looks more north on maps, but people call it the east end (if you look at the provincial map, it kind of makes more sense, you kind of have to think about where the population is, especially before suburbanization). They attempted to re-name the riding St. John's North in 2004 (at the same time, St. John's West became St. John's South), but I assume there was opposition, because it went back to being called St. John's East (though, St. John's South has kept its new name ever since).

[the506]

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame becomes Notre Dame–Bay d'Espoir. This is an improvement as I hate the fact that they just threw in the name "Central" there. Central what?

The area around GFW and Gander is often just called "Central".

[Njall]

Since the riding builder now has election data, I wanted to see how the Alberta commission's maps for Edmonton and Calgary would have voted in 2021. I couldn't get the exact boundaries in a couple of places but I think I got pretty close.

In Edmonton, I was somewhat surprised to see that the new Mill Woods voted essentially the same way as the old Mill Woods, since the Liberals tend to do better in the eastern part of the old Mill Woods.

Gateway, Riverbend, West, and Winterburn all basically voted the same way as last time and as each other, with the CPC at 43-45% and the LPC and NDP neck-and-neck in the mid-20s. Strathcona was also basically unchanged, shifting maybe 1% towards the CPC at the NDP's expense.

Manning changed less than I expected given the boundary shift. There was a change of maybe 2% from the LPC to NDP, so the CPC margin would have been a little closer, but they still would have beaten the NPD by about 3,500 votes.

As expected, the CPC would have beaten the NDP in the new Griesbach, at a margin of 40%-35%. Given the relative closeness, I wouldn't necessarily write off Desjarlais if he ran for re-election here as an incumbent, but he would start as the underdog.

Finally, in Centre, Boissonnault would have won by an even narrower margin than 2021 at 185 votes, but the territory absorbed from Griesbach would have had the NDP in second place at 32% and the CPC in third at 29%. Still a three-way race, but with the NDP slightly up at the CPC's expense compared to the old Centre.

In Calgary, Shepard, Midnapore, Heritage, Signal Hill, Crowchild, and Nose Hill are all boring at 55-60% CPC. The new Forest Lawn is close behind at 53% CPC.

Centre and Confederation are both basically unchanged from 2021. Progressive candidates collectively got about 49% in both ridings, but were far from unified behind a single candidate. (As an aside, I also tested two versions of the cross-river Calgary Centres that we've been playing with in this thread and the CPC would have still won by about 10 points, with 43%. It looks like at least in 2021, crossing the river would have made the riding about 6% friendlier for progressives, but the LPC would have still needed a little more than half of the NDP's vote share to win.

Finally, in the northeast, the new Skyview would have been a 44%-34% CPC victory over the LPC. It would be friendlier to the LPC than Centre or Confederation, but still likely unwinnable except in a wave election. And as expected, McKnight would be the Liberals' best bet in Calgary. They would have beaten the CPC by 10 points (44%-34%) in 2021, which is up from the 6-point margin of victory in the old Skyview, and even in the 2019 the CPC would have been held to 50%.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Since the riding builder now has election data, I wanted to see how the Alberta commission's maps for Edmonton and Calgary would have voted in 2021. I couldn't get the exact boundaries in a couple of places but I think I got pretty close.

In Edmonton, I was somewhat surprised to see that the new Mill Woods voted essentially the same way as the old Mill Woods, since the Liberals tend to do better in the eastern part of the old Mill Woods.

Gateway, Riverbend, West, and Winterburn all basically voted the same way as last time and as each other, with the CPC at 43-45% and the LPC and NDP neck-and-neck in the mid-20s. Strathcona was also basically unchanged, shifting maybe 1% towards the CPC at the NDP's expense.

Manning changed less than I expected given the boundary shift. There was a change of maybe 2% from the LPC to NDP, so the CPC margin would have been a little closer, but they still would have beaten the NPD by about 3,500 votes.

As expected, the CPC would have beaten the NDP in the new Griesbach, at a margin of 40%-35%. Given the relative closeness, I wouldn't necessarily write off Desjarlais if he ran for re-election here as an incumbent, but he would start as the underdog.

Finally, in Centre, Boissonnault would have won by an even narrower margin than 2021 at 185 votes, but the territory absorbed from Griesbach would have had the NDP in second place at 32% and the CPC in third at 29%. Still a three-way race, but with the NDP slightly up at the CPC's expense compared to the old Centre.

In Calgary, Shepard, Midnapore, Heritage, Signal Hill, Crowchild, and Nose Hill are all boring at 55-60% CPC. The new Forest Lawn is close behind at 53% CPC.

Centre and Confederation are both basically unchanged from 2021. Progressive candidates collectively got about 49% in both ridings, but were far from unified behind a single candidate. (As an aside, I also tested two versions of the cross-river Calgary Centres that we've been playing with in this thread and the CPC would have still won by about 10 points, with 43%. It looks like at least in 2021, crossing the river would have made the riding about 6% friendlier for progressives, but the LPC would have still needed a little more than half of the NDP's vote share to win.

Finally, in the northeast, the new Skyview would have been a 44%-34% CPC victory over the LPC. It would be friendlier to the LPC than Centre or Confederation, but still likely unwinnable except in a wave election. And as expected, McKnight would be the Liberals' best bet in Calgary. They would have beaten the CPC by 10 points (44%-34%) in 2021, which is up from the 6-point margin of victory in the old Skyview, and even in the 2019 the CPC would have been held to 50%.

Calgary's an anomaly in how the downtown core and surrounding areas are NOT the most favourable turf for the left. I guess Vancouver too has a situation where the East Hastings/Sunrise area (the VanEast riding, basically) gives more support to the centre-left than downtown, which makes sense considering Vancouver East is pretty low-income and downtown Vancouver is full of very wealthy people - though this is less noticeable, because both Vancouver Centre and East always vote for the centre-left with big margins. Vancouver-False Creek provincially is the only "real" indicator of this. Elsewhere in Canada though, this is basically never the case. Even in Edmonton, it's clear that the downtown area and Strathcona are the most left-wing parts.

I guess what makes Calgary unique is that downtown Calgary is largely based on oil wealth - but a more "white-collar" oil wealth which lends itself to a more 'PC' conservatism, as opposed to the "blue-collar" oil wealth of Fort Mac which lends itself to a more 'Wildrose' conservatism. As for northeast Calgary, especially the areas comprising the proposed McKnight riding, is lower-income than the rest of Calgary, and overwhelmingly populated by recent immigrants and minorities, making it favourable Liberal turf. What's even weirder is that northwest Calgary also has a large immigrant/minority presence, smaller than northeast but still significant in the areas consisting the Nose Hill and Crowchild ridings, but there's little evidence of that vote pushing those areas left. My assumption would be that the minorities/immigrants in northwest are generally higher-income and more assimilated into the mainstream politics of Alberta, ergo more conservative. Most of Calgary south of downtown and Forest Lawn seems very much like the old stereotype of Calgary, very white, pretty wealthy, and Tory uber alles, and that is reflected in it being the bluest part of the city.

[Njall]

Since the riding builder now has election data, I wanted to see how the Alberta commission's maps for Edmonton and Calgary would have voted in 2021. I couldn't get the exact boundaries in a couple of places but I think I got pretty close.

In Edmonton, I was somewhat surprised to see that the new Mill Woods voted essentially the same way as the old Mill Woods, since the Liberals tend to do better in the eastern part of the old Mill Woods.

Gateway, Riverbend, West, and Winterburn all basically voted the same way as last time and as each other, with the CPC at 43-45% and the LPC and NDP neck-and-neck in the mid-20s. Strathcona was also basically unchanged, shifting maybe 1% towards the CPC at the NDP's expense.

Manning changed less than I expected given the boundary shift. There was a change of maybe 2% from the LPC to NDP, so the CPC margin would have been a little closer, but they still would have beaten the NPD by about 3,500 votes.

As expected, the CPC would have beaten the NDP in the new Griesbach, at a margin of 40%-35%. Given the relative closeness, I wouldn't necessarily write off Desjarlais if he ran for re-election here as an incumbent, but he would start as the underdog.

Finally, in Centre, Boissonnault would have won by an even narrower margin than 2021 at 185 votes, but the territory absorbed from Griesbach would have had the NDP in second place at 32% and the CPC in third at 29%. Still a three-way race, but with the NDP slightly up at the CPC's expense compared to the old Centre.

In Calgary, Shepard, Midnapore, Heritage, Signal Hill, Crowchild, and Nose Hill are all boring at 55-60% CPC. The new Forest Lawn is close behind at 53% CPC.

Centre and Confederation are both basically unchanged from 2021. Progressive candidates collectively got about 49% in both ridings, but were far from unified behind a single candidate. (As an aside, I also tested two versions of the cross-river Calgary Centres that we've been playing with in this thread and the CPC would have still won by about 10 points, with 43%. It looks like at least in 2021, crossing the river would have made the riding about 6% friendlier for progressives, but the LPC would have still needed a little more than half of the NDP's vote share to win.

Finally, in the northeast, the new Skyview would have been a 44%-34% CPC victory over the LPC. It would be friendlier to the LPC than Centre or Confederation, but still likely unwinnable except in a wave election. And as expected, McKnight would be the Liberals' best bet in Calgary. They would have beaten the CPC by 10 points (44%-34%) in 2021, which is up from the 6-point margin of victory in the old Skyview, and even in the 2019 the CPC would have been held to 50%.

Calgary's an anomaly in how the downtown core and surrounding areas are NOT the most favourable turf for the left. I guess Vancouver too has a situation where the East Hastings/Sunrise area (the VanEast riding, basically) gives more support to the centre-left than downtown, which makes sense considering Vancouver East is pretty low-income and downtown Vancouver is full of very wealthy people - though this is less noticeable, because both Vancouver Centre and East always vote for the centre-left with big margins. Vancouver-False Creek provincially is the only "real" indicator of this. Elsewhere in Canada though, this is basically never the case. Even in Edmonton, it's clear that the downtown area and Strathcona are the most left-wing parts.

I guess what makes Calgary unique is that downtown Calgary is largely based on oil wealth - but a more "white-collar" oil wealth which lends itself to a more 'PC' conservatism, as opposed to the "blue-collar" oil wealth of Fort Mac which lends itself to a more 'Wildrose' conservatism. As for northeast Calgary, especially the areas comprising the proposed McKnight riding, is lower-income than the rest of Calgary, and overwhelmingly populated by recent immigrants and minorities, making it favourable Liberal turf. What's even weirder is that northwest Calgary also has a large immigrant/minority presence, smaller than northeast but still significant in the areas consisting the Nose Hill and Crowchild ridings, but there's little evidence of that vote pushing those areas left. My assumption would be that the minorities/immigrants in northwest are generally higher-income and more assimilated into the mainstream politics of Alberta, ergo more conservative. Most of Calgary south of downtown and Forest Lawn seems very much like the old stereotype of Calgary, very white, pretty wealthy, and Tory uber alles, and that is reflected in it being the bluest part of the city.

I personally attribute a lot of northeast Calgary's political uniqueness to its demographics and relative isolation, for lack of a better phrase. The northeast is not only uniquely-heavily populated by recent immigrants and minorities, but even more specifically, there is a distinct concentration of South Asian residents, including a large number of Punjabi Sikhs. If you look at neighbourhoods like Saddle Ridge, you'll see that the populations are around 60% South Asian and under 10% white - in other words, numbers you might stereotypically expect to see in parts of Brampton or Surrey. Due to their size and presence, ethnocultural communities in the northeast are the closest-knit that I've seen in Calgary. And when I reference isolation, I'm not just talking about geography (due to the airport and industrial areas), but also linguistically and culturally. I've seen statistics that in multiple northeast communities, up to 10% of residents are unable to converse in English, and many more speak languages other than English whenever possible. When you compare this to the rest of the city, even where immigration numbers are high, you have a much higher degree of different ethnic groups intermingling and generally assimilating into the default political landscape in their area.

I'd also say that although the Liberals certainly have a stronger base in the northeast than in the rest of Calgary, candidate quality and connections to the area are more important than average in the northeast. We saw this in the victories of Darshan Kang and George Chahal in 2015 and 2021, but this also applied to former PC MLA Manmeet Bhullar's victories, even in the 2015 NDP wave. The 2019 federal election was probably a lost cause for the Liberals regardless, but the nail in the coffin if there was one would have been picking Nirmala Naidoo, who was from the northwest and didn't really have ties to the local community.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Since the riding builder now has election data, I wanted to see how the Alberta commission's maps for Edmonton and Calgary would have voted in 2021. I couldn't get the exact boundaries in a couple of places but I think I got pretty close.

In Edmonton, I was somewhat surprised to see that the new Mill Woods voted essentially the same way as the old Mill Woods, since the Liberals tend to do better in the eastern part of the old Mill Woods.

Gateway, Riverbend, West, and Winterburn all basically voted the same way as last time and as each other, with the CPC at 43-45% and the LPC and NDP neck-and-neck in the mid-20s. Strathcona was also basically unchanged, shifting maybe 1% towards the CPC at the NDP's expense.

Manning changed less than I expected given the boundary shift. There was a change of maybe 2% from the LPC to NDP, so the CPC margin would have been a little closer, but they still would have beaten the NPD by about 3,500 votes.

As expected, the CPC would have beaten the NDP in the new Griesbach, at a margin of 40%-35%. Given the relative closeness, I wouldn't necessarily write off Desjarlais if he ran for re-election here as an incumbent, but he would start as the underdog.

Finally, in Centre, Boissonnault would have won by an even narrower margin than 2021 at 185 votes, but the territory absorbed from Griesbach would have had the NDP in second place at 32% and the CPC in third at 29%. Still a three-way race, but with the NDP slightly up at the CPC's expense compared to the old Centre.

In Calgary, Shepard, Midnapore, Heritage, Signal Hill, Crowchild, and Nose Hill are all boring at 55-60% CPC. The new Forest Lawn is close behind at 53% CPC.

Centre and Confederation are both basically unchanged from 2021. Progressive candidates collectively got about 49% in both ridings, but were far from unified behind a single candidate. (As an aside, I also tested two versions of the cross-river Calgary Centres that we've been playing with in this thread and the CPC would have still won by about 10 points, with 43%. It looks like at least in 2021, crossing the river would have made the riding about 6% friendlier for progressives, but the LPC would have still needed a little more than half of the NDP's vote share to win.

Finally, in the northeast, the new Skyview would have been a 44%-34% CPC victory over the LPC. It would be friendlier to the LPC than Centre or Confederation, but still likely unwinnable except in a wave election. And as expected, McKnight would be the Liberals' best bet in Calgary. They would have beaten the CPC by 10 points (44%-34%) in 2021, which is up from the 6-point margin of victory in the old Skyview, and even in the 2019 the CPC would have been held to 50%.

Calgary's an anomaly in how the downtown core and surrounding areas are NOT the most favourable turf for the left. I guess Vancouver too has a situation where the East Hastings/Sunrise area (the VanEast riding, basically) gives more support to the centre-left than downtown, which makes sense considering Vancouver East is pretty low-income and downtown Vancouver is full of very wealthy people - though this is less noticeable, because both Vancouver Centre and East always vote for the centre-left with big margins. Vancouver-False Creek provincially is the only "real" indicator of this. Elsewhere in Canada though, this is basically never the case. Even in Edmonton, it's clear that the downtown area and Strathcona are the most left-wing parts.

I guess what makes Calgary unique is that downtown Calgary is largely based on oil wealth - but a more "white-collar" oil wealth which lends itself to a more 'PC' conservatism, as opposed to the "blue-collar" oil wealth of Fort Mac which lends itself to a more 'Wildrose' conservatism. As for northeast Calgary, especially the areas comprising the proposed McKnight riding, is lower-income than the rest of Calgary, and overwhelmingly populated by recent immigrants and minorities, making it favourable Liberal turf. What's even weirder is that northwest Calgary also has a large immigrant/minority presence, smaller than northeast but still significant in the areas consisting the Nose Hill and Crowchild ridings, but there's little evidence of that vote pushing those areas left. My assumption would be that the minorities/immigrants in northwest are generally higher-income and more assimilated into the mainstream politics of Alberta, ergo more conservative. Most of Calgary south of downtown and Forest Lawn seems very much like the old stereotype of Calgary, very white, pretty wealthy, and Tory uber alles, and that is reflected in it being the bluest part of the city.

I personally attribute a lot of northeast Calgary's political uniqueness to its demographics and relative isolation, for lack of a better phrase. The northeast is not only uniquely-heavily populated by recent immigrants and minorities, but even more specifically, there is a distinct concentration of South Asian residents, including a large number of Punjabi Sikhs. If you look at neighbourhoods like Saddle Ridge, you'll see that the populations are around 60% South Asian and under 10% white - in other words, numbers you might stereotypically expect to see in parts of Brampton or Surrey. Due to their size and presence, ethnocultural communities in the northeast are the closest-knit that I've seen in Calgary. And when I reference isolation, I'm not just talking about geography (due to the airport and industrial areas), but also linguistically and culturally. I've seen statistics that in multiple northeast communities, up to 10% of residents are unable to converse in English, and many more speak languages other than English whenever possible. When you compare this to the rest of the city, even where immigration numbers are high, you have a much higher degree of different ethnic groups intermingling and generally assimilating into the default political landscape in their area.

I'd also say that although the Liberals certainly have a stronger base in the northeast than in the rest of Calgary, candidate quality and connections to the area are more important than average in the northeast. We saw this in the victories of Darshan Kang and George Chahal in 2015 and 2021, but this also applied to former PC MLA Manmeet Bhullar's victories, even in the 2015 NDP wave. The 2019 federal election was probably a lost cause for the Liberals regardless, but the nail in the coffin if there was one would have been picking Nirmala Naidoo, who was from the northwest and didn't really have ties to the local community.

Another indicator is population density. The Forest Lawn-Saddle Ridge corridor generally has a higher level of population density than most of the city's sprawling suburbia, which usually correlates with more centre-left politics. Having grown up partly in Calgary and having family there, there's a certain attachment to the conservative brand and repulsion to the Liberal brand among "old-stock Albertans", even ones who aren't particularly conservative in ideology. Kinda similar to how many Quebecers with fundamentally conservative views don't identify as such and don't vote CPC because they're socialized to dislike that brand. I assume new arrivals in Calgary, especially those who live in the isolated northeast, haven't been socialized in the "thou shalt vote Tory" culture, and are more likely to "shop around"

[Krago]

I had my fifteen minutes of fame at the Saskatchewan Virtual Hearing today.

Zach Jeffries, a Saskatoon city councillor who hasn't updated his website in two years gave a shout out to RidingBuilder and TalkElections.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had my fifteen minutes of fame at the Saskatchewan Virtual Hearing today.

Zach Jeffries, a Saskatoon city councillor who hasn't updated his website in two years gave a shout out to RidingBuilder and TalkElections.

Nice! Any more details? Do people like the new Saskatoon Centre riding?

[Krago]

I had my fifteen minutes of fame at the Saskatchewan Virtual Hearing today.

Zach Jeffries, a Saskatoon city councillor who hasn't updated his website in two years gave a shout out to RidingBuilder and TalkElections.

Nice! Any more details? Do people like the new Saskatoon Centre riding?

A lot of the usual suspects (I was the insufferable know-it-all).  

I had sent a link (https://www.bit.ly/Canada343) to my map to the Commissioners, so they already knew what I was going to show them.  The only question I received was whether there were any 'rurban' seats in my proposal.  I gave a long answer that could be summed up as 'not really'.

There was a Saskatoon hippie that liked Saskatoon Centre and wanted to add the University.

There was an irrigation expert who wanted to put Moose Jaw in the same riding as the various irrgation projects in central Saskatchewan.  He also wanted to rename 'Lake Centre' as 'Irrigation Centre'.

There was a woman from the Weyburn Chamber of Commerce who complained about Souris--Moose Mountain including the Regina suburbs.  She had just been hired three days earlier and read from a prepared statement.

There was a Ned Flanders-lookalike from Rosthern (home of the Rosthern Penis) who wanted the towns surrounding Saskatoon to be included in rurban ridings with neighbourhoods within the city, the way God intended.

There was Zach Jeffries, the city councillor from Saskatoon Ward 10.  He wanted to create a donut riding around the city, and included the newest subdivisions on the outer edge of Saskatoon for population balance.  He also disagreed with crossing the South Saskatchewan River, so who knows how he was going to divide the 'old' part of the city.

There was some cranky dude from Meadow Lake who claimed the Commissioners were handpicked by Justin Trudeau, and he probably wrote their initial proposal for DMCR.

And finally there was some other guy who had a 'very short presentation' and talked about himself for ten minutes.  I have no idea what he wanted.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thank you for this. I want to know what to expect if and when I decide to do a presentation in Ottawa. Will you be attending other virtual hearings?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I had my fifteen minutes of fame at the Saskatchewan Virtual Hearing today.

Zach Jeffries, a Saskatoon city councillor who hasn't updated his website in two years gave a shout out to RidingBuilder and TalkElections.

Nice! Any more details? Do people like the new Saskatoon Centre riding?

A lot of the usual suspects (I was the insufferable know-it-all).  

I had sent a link (https://www.bit.ly/Canada343) to my map to the Commissioners, so they already knew what I was going to show them.  The only question I received was whether there were any 'rurban' seats in my proposal.  I gave a long answer that could be summed up as 'not really'.

There was a Saskatoon hippie that liked Saskatoon Centre and wanted to add the University.

There was an irrigation expert who wanted to put Moose Jaw in the same riding as the various irrgation projects in central Saskatchewan.  He also wanted to rename 'Lake Centre' as 'Irrigation Centre'.

There was a woman from the Weyburn Chamber of Commerce who complained about Souris--Moose Mountain including the Regina suburbs.  She had just been hired three days earlier and read from a prepared statement.

There was a Ned Flanders-lookalike from Rosthern (home of the Rosthern Penis) who wanted the towns surrounding Saskatoon to be included in rurban ridings with neighbourhoods within the city, the way God intended.

There was Zach Jeffries, the city councillor from Saskatoon Ward 10.  He wanted to create a donut riding around the city, and included the newest subdivisions on the outer edge of Saskatoon for population balance.  He also disagreed with crossing the South Saskatchewan River, so who knows how he was going to divide the 'old' part of the city.

There was some cranky dude from Meadow Lake who claimed the Commissioners were handpicked by Justin Trudeau, and he probably wrote their initial proposal for DMCR.

And finally there was some other guy who had a 'very short presentation' and talked about himself for ten minutes.  I have no idea what he wanted.

What's the logic for your arrangements around Regina? It looks me like Regina and Qu'Appelle still work fairly well for three ridings, so why did you choose to swap the latter out for Moose Jaw?

[Krago]

The “Qu’Appelle” part of Regina—Qu’Appelle is mostly small town and rural. Moose Jaw is urban.

I combined Moose Jaw with Regina - and the surrounding rural municipalities - to create three seats that are almost entirely urban.

[TwinGeeks99]

Here's my crack at British Columbia:

Full View


Okanagan/Kamloops


Vancouver Island


Lower Mainland


Metro Vancouver


2019 Election Results:
Conservatives - 18
New Democrats - 13
Liberals - 10
Greens - 2

2021 Election Results:
Liberals - 15
Conservatives - 14
New Democrats - 13
Greens - 1

2019 -> 2021 Flips:

CON -> LIB:
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Richmond East—Queensborough
Richmond West
Vancouver Granville

NDP -> LIB:
Burnaby North—Port Moody

GRN -> NDP:
Nanaimo

2019 Close Races (Within 2,000 votes):
Fleetwood—Port Kells: CON wins by 112 over LIB
Westwood—Port Coquitlam: LIB wins by 224 over CON
Coquitlam: NDP wins by 263 over CON
Burnaby North—Port Moody: NDP wins by 342 over LIB
Vancouver Granville: CON wins by 1,134 over LIB
Surrey—Cloverdale: LIB wins by 1,654 over CON

2021 Close Races (Within 2,000 votes):
Nanaimo: NDP wins by 589 over CON
Burnaby North—Port Moody: LIB wins by 946 over NDP
Richmond West: LIB wins by 1,171 over CON
South Surrey—White Rock: CON wins by 1,993 over LIB

Honorable mention:
Vancouver Granville: LIB wins by 2,086 over CON

All districts are within 10% except for Skeena—Bulkley Valley, which was unchanged.

[Krago]

The proposed Quebec map has been released.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/qc/prop/index_e.aspx

Who had “Manicouagan—Kawawachikamach—Uapishka” in the pool?

[MaxQue]

The proposed Quebec map has been released.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/qc/prop/index_e.aspx

Who had “Manicouagan—Kawawachikamach—Uapishka” in the pool?

It's a pile of trash. Just look at those villages around Gatineau that are split because they use roads as boundaries instead of municipal limits.

[MaxQue]

Using the Riding Builder, it would result in BQ+2, Lib-2 (Châteauguay and Gaspésie).

[TwinGeeks99]

Using the Riding Builder, it would result in BQ+2, Lib-2 (Châteauguay and Gaspésie).

And this would be enough to tip the balance such that the Bloc now wins the plurality of seats in Quebec despite losing the provincewide vote. (Because of course the Liberals rack up big margins in Montreal and the Outaouais)

[Poirot]

The proposed Quebec map has been released.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/qc/prop/index_e.aspx

Who had “Manicouagan—Kawawachikamach—Uapishka” in the pool?

It's a pile of trash. Just look at those villages around Gatineau that are split because they use roads as boundaries instead of municipal limits.

I don't understand why the new Laurentides-Labelle goes that much south in Outaouais. It has part of La Pêche and Val-des-Monts, up to Mont-Laurier but avoiding Maniwaki and back down to Sainte-Agathe. Maybe it has to do with natives near Maniwaki having links to Pontiac more than Laurentides because to join Hautes-Laurentides with Outaouais I would take the most nothern part of Vallée de la Gatineau and avoid going too much south. The name is probably not appropriate anymore.