The map as it stands now-

[Josh/Devilman88]

Strong Obama: 181 EVs
Lean Obama: 50 EVs
Slight Obama: 24 EVs
Toss-up: 63 EVs
Silght Rep: 58 EVs
Lean Rep: 39 EVs
Strong Rep: 123 EVs

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Strong Obama: 181 EVs
Lean Obama: 50 EVs
Slight Obama: 24 EVs
Toss-up: 63 EVs
Silght Rep: 58 EVs
Lean Rep: 39 EVs
Strong Rep: 123 EVs

I think this map is the best one so far that I have seen. Nevada usually is close to the national average. This year Obama had everything going for him plus something else-McCain only visited the state once in the last 2 weeks of the campaign I believe and had one of the worst on the ground organixation in NV as well as other states I have ever seen. If the GOP learns how to organise again it would be in the same catgory as CO within 2pts of Nat average just like in 2004.

[Blazers93]

Map as it stands now considering results vs. national average, demographics and trends.

90% Dem: wtf Dem
60% Dem: Strong Dem
50% Dem: Solid Dem
40% Dem: Lean Dem
30% Dem: Slight Dem
Tossup: Tossup
30% Rep: Slight Republican
40% Rep: Lean Republican
50% Rep: Solid Republican
60% Rep: Strong Republican

[Lunar]

Lamrock, if you are comparing things to their national average, should Iowa and Colorado cease to be solidly colored Democratic?  I mean, subtract Obama's national total from those states and it results in a number noticeably lower than Bush's national average minus his number in a number of states Obama dominated in.  Be open minded.

I mean, I'm going to assume that if the candidate next year for the GOP won the Iowa primary (highly likely), they'd had a great organization and appeal in the state.  McCain ignored Iowa.

[Blazers93]

Well, those states went 2-3 points towards Obama from the National Average. Colorado remains slight dem, and I suppose Iowa would logically be slight or toss-up as well. I thought Iowa was won by the same margin as New Mexico.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Yes Missouri voted for McCain, but I don't think Missouri is that Republican. I'd change it to Slight Republican and change Nevada to Slight Democrat. But other than that i'd say that's about right.

[big bad fab]

248 - 200 - 90

But remember "slight" states won't be all slight at the same time, depending on the GOP candidate (business, centrist, evangelical, MidWesterner,...) and depending on successes and failures of Obama (foregin policy, the economy, health care, "values" and cultural issues, immigration,...).

And there is a difference between each group of slight states, depending on the trend of each of them (e.g., AZ trending Dem, MO trending GOP / NV trending Dem, MN trending GOP)

[Holmes]

Why do people consider Pennsylvania a toss-up? I have never seen anything in that state to prove it. Obama lets McCain run loose there for weeks and he gets spanked, Murtha wins re-election pretty easily... the only thing that doesn't help is Specter, and Obama didn't win as big as Clinton in 96.

Other than that I basically agree, it must take a huge GOTV effort in Sarpy to win Omaha.

[Person Man]

Why do people consider Pennsylvania a toss-up? I have never seen anything in that state to prove it. Obama lets McCain run loose there for weeks and he gets spanked, Murtha wins re-election pretty easily... the only thing that doesn't help is Specter, and Obama didn't win as big as Clinton in 96.

Other than that I basically agree, it must take a huge GOTV effort in Sarpy to win Omaha.

Although, if there was an actual tie in the PV, with NO idiosynchratic state swings, this is what would happen-