Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[FrancoAgo]

No senate electoral law can assure a majority in the Senate and "meno che mai" the same majority of Camera

[FrancoAgo]

There is no more the majority premium, we have a proportional system with 8% threshold (coalition 20% within 3%)

[FrancoAgo]

(coalition 20% within 3%)

what does that mean within this context?

Coalition threshold 20%, parties within coalition threshold 3%

[FrancoAgo]

So, my knowledge of Italian politics is very low, but is there likely to be an early GE now?

Almost certainly imo. Renzi will still control the PD, anf there is not even the remotest chance you could make a stable government without PD. I assume there will be a caretaker government and elextions in 2017, which I wouldn't be surprised if Renzi is favoured to come back in.

But if the runoff between PD and M5S for the bonus seats is in favor of M5S which is what the current polling shows would not M5S then capture a lower house majority and the PM position.  Not clear which election law the Senate race will be using though.

w/o senate majority it can't take PM position. The senate election law is clear, at moment, is a proportianal law with 8% threshold for parties (on regional level) and a 20% threshold for coalition ( 3% threshold for parties within coalition)

[FrancoAgo]

That was phrased a little dramatically, but the point is that I am very opposed to abolishing perfect bicameralism -- in the current Italian system, the Senate can override the decisions of the lower chamber, and functions as an important check on the legislative process, while part of the suggested reform is to abolish this. Under the present system, a majority of the lower-house was elected with 29.5% of the vote in 2013; while the electoral system was changed in 2015 to make this more difficult, it is still possible to win an absolute majority as long as you exceed a 40% threshold, so you can still win an absolute majority even with most of the electorate voting against you (or, in a runoff between the top-two scoring parties, with most of the electorate simply considering you a lesser of two evils).

So, yeah, allowing a minority of the electorate to elect an absolute majority of the lower chamber of parliament and then removing a check on the power of that lower chamber seems very reckless and antidemocratic to me, and I would've voted against this referendum if I lived in Italy. I'm not thrilled about triggering a general election that M5S have a decent chance to win, but at least this way when they do win (since it seems to be a question of when, not if, at this point) they won't be able to singlehandedly enact a bunch of new legislation.

In the Italian system the Senate is not a check on the legislative process is a half of the legislative process, every laws need the approve of both the chambers and approval of the same text a modification in a chamber need to back the law in the other.  
The possibility that both the chambers have same majority, from the elections, is rare so we are condamned a post elections coalition in the best hypotesis.

100% results 40,89% Yes, 59,11 No

for official resultds need many time only the courts can release official result

[FrancoAgo]

I think you need 2/3 majority in both houses to avoid referendum.  

Yes if in the 2nd pass you get 2/3 majority in both houses the referendum is avoid

p.s. 2/3 of members not of presents

[FrancoAgo]

Sicily
5300/5300

Cancelleri (M5S) 34,7%, 1 seat
Fava (Left coalition) 6,1%
Micari (PD coalition) 18,7%
Musumeci (Right coalition) 39,8%, 7 seats
La Rosa (Independist) 0,7%


2012 results for comparation

Crocetta (PD coalition, with a center right party (now with the right coalition)) 30,5%
Musumeci (Right coalition) 25,7%
Cancelleri (M5S) 18,2%
Miccichè (local Right coalition, now with the Right coalition) 15,4%
Marano (Left coalition and Di Pietro's party) 6,1%
Ferro (right populist, now with the right coalition) 1,6%
De Luca (right populist and far right, now with the right coalition) 1,2%
Sturzo 1% (independent, centrist)
Di Leo 0,2% (Communist)
Pinsone 0,2% (right populist)

[FrancoAgo]

Sicily
party list results

Forza Italia 16,4%, 12 seats
Local center right coalition 7,1%, 5 seats
UDC & allies, 7%, 5 seats
Musumeci list, 6%, 4 seats
Right coalition, 5,6% 3 seats

M5S 26,7%, 19 seats

PD 13%, 11 seats
Local center-center left coalition 6%, 2 seats
Alfano's party 4,2%, 0 seat
Micari list, 2,2%, 0 seat

Left coalition 5,2%, 1 seat

Free Sicilians (Independentist) 0,7%, 0 seat

2012 results

PD 13,4%, 14 seats (in 2012 there were 90 seats, today 70)
UDC 10,8%, 11 seats
Crocetta list with minor allies 6,2%, 5 seats

PdL 12,9%, 12 seats
Local center right party 5,9%, 4 seats
Musumeci list 5,6%, 4 seats
minor center right party 0,3%, 0 seat

M5S 14,9%, 15 seats

Lombardo's southern center right party 9,5%, 10 seats
Miccichè southern center right party 6%, 5 seats
Fini's party 4,4%, 0 seat

Di Pietro's party 3,5%, 0 seat
Left coalition 3,1%, 0 seat

Ferro's list 1,2%

Cateno's list 1,2%

Sturzo's list 0,8%

Workers' Communist party 0,1%

Pinsone list 0,1%

[FrancoAgo]

Call the coalition with D'Alema, Bersani, Grasso radical left is ridicolous, they can be called center left, they are no more leftist of the 2013 coalition.
a radical left coalition is in birth: Potere al popolo, power to the people, they started from a "centro sociale" of Naples

[FrancoAgo]

Who are they?
I am fairly active in Italian politics and never remotely heard of them...

Anyhow, Pisapia, IDV and the Greens should go with PD, as should the Radicals.
MDP, Civati and Sinistra Italiana (Fassina and co.) are running together under the "Liberi e Uguali" electoral cartel, with Senate President Pietro Grasso as their (formal) leader.
Ingroia has just formed a new party, but it will get less than 0.1%, whereas Rifondazione Comunista should run independently.
[/quote]


not so active... search potere al popolo on facebook, the CPN of PRC just yesterday or was saturday, voted for join.

the greens from today to 6th called online vote for the coalition

[FrancoAgo]

Eight thousand likes on Facebook...no wonder I had no idea they existed.

Anyhow, leftbehing, I was referring to the fact that you were already defining the issue in a "liberals vs radical left" way, when in fact Liberi e Uguali is just the result of personal hatred and not of some revolutionary platform.

i'm not referring so, you are "Part of the radical left has agreed to form a coalition with PD after some talks on policy, others (most, former members of PD) instead have rejected it based on pure, personal hatred of Matteo Renzi. The radical left is led by people such as D'Alema and Bersani, dynosaurs responsible for the worse defeats of the Italian center-left in the last years. "

[FrancoAgo]

Within 70 days we will have new elections in Italy, probably the 4th march

The president has dissolved (dismissed) the chambers

[FrancoAgo]

It's not a matter of "custom", it's a matter of whether the electoral system you use allows you to actually form cohesive majorities. The system used from 1993 to 2005 made it possible, and Renzi's proposed electoral/constitutional reform would have restored that, but since the referendum failed and the Constitutional Court threw out the runoff provision in the Italicum, we're stuck with an unworkable mess of an electoral system that will guarantee permanent "grand" coalitions.

actually the system in use in the 1994, 1996 and 2001 elections don't allow to form cohesive majorities, actually near no electoral system cad do this.
The system brought together not very homogeneous alliance and in '94 the Berlusconi's alliances had not majority in the Senate, he gained/bought it after the elections, in '96 the Prodi alliance not gained electoral majorities in neither chambers but worked a post election majority, only in the 2001 the Berlusconi alliance gained enough seats in both the chambers.

[FrancoAgo]

Ciampi and Dini were not members of parliament and Monti was not a elected members of parliament so there is not a so custom.
Governments reflected majorities presented before voting was occasionally and happened only in the 2001, 2006 and 2008.
The point it's the heavy propaganda in favour to the false custom, and the complete ignorance of large part of electorate

[FrancoAgo]

So with LeU, do voters just vote for LeU or would they vote for the various parties? The way Wikipedia presents it, it's not a coalition like the others, but I am not sure.

just vote for LeU

[FrancoAgo]

Voters may be ignorant, misinformed, but on election day they are always right, because that's how democracy works. The Dini cabinet, the Monti cabinet are affected by the same misperception because they came to power by substituting majorities that had previously come out of elections. My point is that perception is just as important as effective rules, because there will always be an emotional component to politics.

I hope to reach 20 posts so that I'll be allowed to post some maps.

Mappix i want help you to get the map quorum.
The elections of representation is only a small part how democracy works and imo is not a compulsory part, and the only elections of representation is away from a democracy.
There was not a majority come out of elections in 1994.
Pereception is important because can be easily manipulated todays more that same time ago

[FrancoAgo]

Someones has how many deputies and senators will be elected for each plurinominal college?

[FrancoAgo]

https://infogram.com/collegi-rosatellum-1gk92e7x0k37p16 (scroll down)

thx but this is not a reply to my question
this give only how many deputies for regions not for plurinominal college

[FrancoAgo]

I did not notice at first, but what do you mean when you say elections are not compulsory?

the elections of representation are not a compulsory part of democracy, it can be a democracy w/o elections of representation (representation as is commonly understood)

[FrancoAgo]

The website is out - 490 euros for a one-year subscription...

significa che stanno fuori di testa? anche in inglese?

sorry for my use of the italian

[FrancoAgo]

It was a pretty obvious consequence of the result of the constitutional referendum.

Back to the First Republic, back to a PR system. It's actually a semi-miracle that there is an uninominal component in the electoral law.

w/o the FPTP component the electoral law would have been better, and there would be not danger of a new right-wing government

[FrancoAgo]

Why did the Constitutional Court rule the concept of bonus seats to be unconstitutional? 

If you're talking of the bonus in the italicum law the Court not ruled out the bonus they ruled out the second ballot

[FrancoAgo]

Here there is the programs and full list of candidates, is in italian
http://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/trasparenza

[FrancoAgo]

^ Great summary, thanks!

Is there any VoteMatch/VoteCompass/you name it test?

here, in italian
https://www.navigatoreelettorale.it/it/#!/

[FrancoAgo]

I'm closest to PC, with LeU, M5S and PuSR also being options.

I'm a closest to LeU, but i vote Potere al Popolo,