2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

I do want to point out that the Free Press already says Kilpatrick has lost.  We'll see.

http://www.freep.com/article/20100803/NEWS15/100803079/1435/Clarke-upsets-Cheeks-Kilpatrick

In trying to infer how much of the white vote is in, this data point isn't very helpful is it?  

U.S. House - District 13 - GOP Primary
Eastern Wayne
Uncontested race, no results will be reported.
County   Precincts   J. Hauler
(GOP)
Total   0/0   0
0%

I'm not sure what race you're looking at, but Wayne County Michigan's election results are here, which may or may not be more up-to-date than the AP count:
http://www.waynecounty.com/documents/elections_docs/CAND_LST.pdf

Edited to add: You can infer what's out from the county convention races.  It's not the Pointe.

[cinyc]

Kansas R Senate results by county so far (Moran win/leading Blue; Tiahrt win/leading Red; No results Gray):

[cinyc]

MI-1 Republican Benishek 27,070 [38%] Allen 27,058 [38%]):

[cinyc]

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

I doubt it.  Some of the regional polarization might be explained by TV market - the Marquette and Wisconsin markets versus Traverse City.  I'll try to do more analysis if I have time tonight.

[cinyc]

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

I doubt it.  Some of the regional polarization might be explained by TV market - the Marquette and Wisconsin markets versus Traverse City.  I'll try to do more analysis if I have time tonight.

I got the impression Benishek won the UP vote based on regionalism. I would think that if Allen pulls this out in a recount, especially with SEIU help, the UP vote might not be there for him in the general.

For whatever reason, Benishek won the western UP (Marquette market) but not parts of the eastern UP (Traverse City market).  He also won Alpena County, which is in its own TV market.  I want to do an analysis of the margin in various counties before concluding anything definitive, though.

Where in the district is the Democratic candidate from, anyway?

[cinyc]

http://107.housedems.com/district-map/

Cheboygan County (part)
Koehler township
Tuscarora township
Chippewa County
Emmet County
Mackinac County
 

Thanks.  He appears to be from Chippewa County (Sault Ste. Marie area), which is in the Eastern UP and Traverse City TV market.  Allen is more or less from the same area, but on the Lower Peninsula (the Emmet County part of McDowell's district).  Benishek is from Iron County in the Western UP on the Wisconsin border.

Whether someone from Chippewa County has a better chance of picking up the Western UP than someone from Emmet County is probably debateable.  Stupak was from the Western UP, FWIW.

[cinyc]

So wait, Allen lives outside the district, right? Doesn't that mean that he lost because he (and, presuming he's married, his wife) couldn't vote for himself? I realize that the final count will probably not end in a 1-vote margin for Benishek, but it's still a wonderful thought.

Anyway, here are some quick and dirty maps of a few of the House primaries:

No.  Allen is from Emmet County, which is in the district.  He represents the Eastern UP and Northern LP in the Michigan Senate.

[cinyc]

But yeah, GOP chances in MI-1 certainly took a hit. Benishek would be a much weaker candidate in the general geographically considering that the majority of the population of the district lives much closer to McDowell, not to mention he's much more conservative and inexperienced thus more likely to make a gaffe and make himself the issue. If Allen ultimately wins the nomination the regionalism plays to McDowell's advantage in the UP.

Plus if there's a recount and the battle for the nomination drags on that obviously doesn't help.

Well, Stupak was as geographically removed from the center of the district as possible but somehow managed to get elected and re-elected.  Benishek would probably be the better candidate geographically for the GOP since he's a Yooper and Allen isn't.  

Red State has a geographical analysis of the MI-01 primary results that seems sound:
http://www.redstate.com/republican_michigander/2010/08/04/in-depth-analysis-on-mi-01-benishekallen-race-geography-matters/

[cinyc]

The TN Department of State also promises results tonight on their website:

http://tnsos.org/elections/Results/20100805Results.php

[cinyc]

The early voting results in Tennessee usually mean a lot, just FYI.

I think the TN DoS website is crashed, but before it did, I had the following results in the Governor's race:

Haslam 46,251   
Ramsey 23,294   
Wamp 20,273
Kirkpatrick 750   
Marceaux 236   

The AP results are lagging.

[cinyc]

Fleischmann is now less than 200 votes behind Smith. Unfortunately for him, it looks like the remaining areas are going to break for Smith. DesJarlais seems to be sitting on a comfortable 6-point lead. That Palin-backed candidate in TN-05 is doing pretty well in Davidson, but not enough to win. It's now Zelenik-Tracy-Black in TN-06. Edit: Black back in the lead. This is ridiculous.

Yeah, it looks like Hall is going to win in TN-05 with less than 30% of the vote.   Heck, it might even be less than 25%.   Will there be any runoffs?

[cinyc]

More are voting in the GOP primary than the Dem primary in TN-5? It seems that folks are not interested in voting in Dem primaries when they have a choice, just about everywhere lately. What that portends remains to be seen I guess.

The TN-5 Democratic primary doesn't seem like it was effectively contested.  The incumbent will win with 85+% of the vote.

[cinyc]

Per Cinyc's map, I always get curious about these little islands in regional races, in this case, Henderson and Decatur. Why? I note in passing that Henderson was a pro union island in a rebel sea back when. Whatever.

I deleted the map to check data integrity when I noticed a precinct that had 0% reporting yet showed results.  Turned out, that was due to early voting.   Given that, I assume the data's correct.  Here's a repost:

TN-R Gov
(Haslam 48%, Wamp 29%, Ramsey 22%, Haslam-Ramsey exact tie, No Data)

[cinyc]

Per Cinyc's map, I always get curious about these little islands in regional races, in this case, Henderson and Decatur. Why? I note in passing that Henderson was a pro union island in a rebel sea back when. Whatever.

It seems like an area of the state (perhaps TV market) where it was a true three-way race.  Ramsey barely took over the lead in neighboring Hardin County, which shifted the color to redish.

Anyway, with 2130/2177 reporting:


Generally, Wamp won the Chatanooga area, Ramsey the Tri-Cities area and Haslam most of the rest of the state.

[cinyc]

Regarding TV markets, is there a TV station in Jackson or something?  I once saw a movie in Jackson. It was the first time I saw a separate glassed in section, where mother's could take their crying babies.

Yeah, there's a Jackson TV market.  Last I checked, Henderson and Hardin are in it.  Decatur technically isn't (though it could be in the Jackson TV station's area of influence).

Tennessee TV markets, FWIW:

[cinyc]

Oh right, today's election day.

The YouTube guy didn't win?  The gospel singer from frog jump or whatever it's called easily won?  Cohen creamed his opponent?  

Next thing you're going to tell me is that Arizona's GOP primary is going to be boring as well.  Sure, Hayworth is roadkill and all of Brewer's opponents seem to have dropped out and endorsed her, but...yeah, okay, that'll be a sleeper too


It seems like viral videos have formed an extremely poor basis for campaigns this cycle.  That one guy who plays dress-up in his basement talking about revolution lost, that crazy guy lost today, etc.  I guess Demon Sheep won, but I don't think that really mattered.

Who's going to elect sneezing panda in 2012 now??

We have Connecticut next week, which may have a few interesting races.  The gubernatorial ad war is heating up, even in the NYC market.  Colorado and Minnesota are up next week, too,  I think.

[cinyc]

How do you make/where do you get these maps?

I'm getting a little more high tech.  MapWindow GIS, directly from a spreadsheet of the AP data.  County (and other) vector data courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau. 

I still can't figure out the RGB values for the typical Atlas coloring, though - and I'm not exactly great with color shading by eye.

Hopefully, I'll have enough time this week to try to use Connecticut as my first test run for the November package.    I have to get the maps and data in order.  If things go as planned, it should be Massachusetts special election-level epic.

[cinyc]

Oh, I mixed up the numbers for Lamont-Malloy. It's 45-42, not 45-24.

Lamont-Malloy should be an interesting one.  Lamont is running ads on NYC local TV. I've yet to see a Malloy ad.  Same for Foley on the Republican side (has aired ads in NYC) versus Fedele and Griebel (have not) and McMahon (has aired a ton of ads in NYC) versus Schiff and Simmons (none), for that matter.  

[cinyc]

CT just closed.  No results yet.

[cinyc]

Not surprisingly, Simmons is winning his old CD.  McMahon is winning everywhere else:



I see no other real pattern in the results thus far.

[cinyc]

There's a TV market disparity so far (which I'd expect, since McMahon was heavily advertising in NYC and the others weren't).  But it's too early to tell if it's significant.



There's also a major TV market disparity in the Republican Governor's race, with Griebel (who?) getting slaughtered in the NYC market.

NYC Market=Fairfield County.  Hartford-New Haven=Rest of State

[cinyc]

FWIW, a crappy last-minute model that I only had time to create for the CT Dem Gov race has Malloy winning it 52.6-47.4. 

We'll see if that works.  I doubt it.

[cinyc]

CT-Sen R by town so far (McMahon Blue, Schiff Green, Simmons Red):

[cinyc]

FWIW, in the CT-Rep Gov Race Griebel seems to be doing his best in thee less-educated towns.  Foley, the opposite:

[cinyc]

In the CT House races, Brickley will win CT-01 and Debicella CT-04.  Then there's these two races.  Peckinpaugh has a solid lead in CT-02, but CT-05 is really close - a true three-way horse race.