2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[muon2]

Moran up by 1 47-46


I think most if it is do to Sedgwick county coming in for Tiarht. Nearly all of Johnson is out but the 1 precinct we have has Moran up by 8. Moran is winning Douglas county by 20 points if that is any indication of how Johnson will vote.

I agree that the counties outside their respective CDs are going to tell for this election. Johnson is the big prize, and it's just now coming in at 0.2%.

[muon2]

Well the top line precincts out number must be a typo or something. Sedgwick is all in, and Moran has a 3,000 vote lead. A few small counties are not in at all, and it may matter a lot where they are, since this race seem driven by geography to a substantial extent, which is not surprising between two competing congressmen.

Most of the more populated counties that have yet to report are from western Kansas, besides Butler and Riley.

Sumner   0/42   

Sumner is just south of Wichita and in the T man's district. Just saying. Moran leads by 1,000 votes are so. Sumner in case you all are not aware of it, has the highest wheat production in the United States of any county, or did when I read this factlet about 20 years ago or whatever. It is wheat fields from county line to county line, with very little interruption.

Sumner and Butler should go for T, while Riley and Reno are out still for M. Similar populations, so it's hard to see who gets the better turnout at this stage.

[muon2]

Well the top line precincts out number must be a typo or something. Sedgwick is all in, and Moran has a 3,000 vote lead. A few small counties are not in at all, and it may matter a lot where they are, since this race seem driven by geography to a substantial extent, which is not surprising between two competing congressmen.

Most of the more populated counties that have yet to report are from western Kansas, besides Butler and Riley.

Sumner   0/42   

Sumner is just south of Wichita and in the T man's district. Just saying. Moran leads by 1,000 votes are so. Sumner in case you all are not aware of it, has the highest wheat production in the United States of any county, or did when I read this factlet about 20 years ago or whatever. It is wheat fields from county line to county line, with very little interruption.

Sumner and Butler should go for T, while Riley and Reno are out still for M. Similar populations, so it's hard to see who gets the better turnout at this stage.

Politico has Riley at 100% and Butler at 98% now. M's lead is about 1700 now by their count.

Don't be fooled by the numbers of precincts.

Reno and Riley both have over 60,000.

Sumner has around 25,000.

But Riley has a much lower turnout compared to population.

[muon2]

A big batch of Moran's counties just came in including part of Reno - he's up almost 6K.

[muon2]

Benishek will end up ahead by somewhere around this margin.

You are familiar with the five precincts eh? 

I'm not, but projecting the current counts in those counties would lead me to expect them to cancel out.

[muon2]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

27,058  27,160

B's lead seem to have expanded to 102 votes, without any more precincts coming in. And there you have it. Two precincts still out in Bay County, which Allen is carrying by a bit. Those two precincts won't generate a 100 vote margin however, I don't think. So Allen needs some votes to come in or something like for B without any more precincts coming in. Stay tuned.

And maybe there are some late absentees or overseas votes left to be counted anyway. I assume there will be a recount.

Well the last two precincts came in, and there was no vote change! No precincts come in and the vote changes, and then precincts come in, and there is no vote change. Fancy that. So the TP man has a final 102 vote lead for the night, it seems. Of course, it may be the last two precincts in Bay came in, and favored the guy otherwise losing the county, the obverse of Iosco, but the input guy forgot to change the precincts counted number.

Total   508/508   27,058 27,160

And now this morning, Benishek's vote total went down without any change for Allen (27,070 to 27,058). That leaves Benishek with a 12 vote lead. Michigan has an automatic recount provision, and I would assume this is close enough, if the law applies to congressional primaries.

[muon2]

The early voting results in Tennessee usually mean a lot, just FYI.

I think the TN DoS website is crashed, but before it did, I had the following results in the Governor's race:

Haslam 46,251   
Ramsey 23,294   
Wamp 20,273
Kirkpatrick 750   
Marceaux 236   

The AP results are lagging.

This is a new feature for the TN SoS. It looks like they didn't shake it down enough before the roll out.

[muon2]

I have 71/325 in, O'Donnell 6831 (55.9%), Castle 5381 (44.1%).

[muon2]

At 119/325 in, O'Donnell 11695 (55.4%), Castle 9369 (44.6%). There is virtually no movement since the 71/325 update. Unless there's an unusual pocket out there it looks like the margin should hold.

[muon2]

Now 153/325 in, O'Donnell 15145 (55.4%), Castle 12186 (44.6%). Exact same percentages.

[muon2]

215/325 54.6% O'Donnell

It's over folks.

22006 to 18313

[muon2]

With 263/325: O'Donnell 26102 (54.0%), Castle 22210 (46.0%).

[muon2]

With 278/325: O'Donnell 27674 (53.7%), Castle 23874 (46.3%).

 and CNN just called it.

[muon2]

Tightened up a bit: 320/325, 53.2 O'Donnell. Urquhart narrowly takes the DE-AL nomination, 48.8 to 47.5.

Last precincts were probably from inner Wilmington, which is quite black as I recall.

I'll change my tune here after looking at cinyc's map - looks like more of a rural vs. suburban contest.  Has not been the traditional tea party structure so far, but O'Donnell is not the typical tea party candidate

Here in IL the Tea Party seems to have the most activity in the outer suburbs. Suburban Will County is a particular hotbed.

[muon2]

Should I even be a republican anymore?

Nope.  The party will never see my vote again.  Tonight was the backbreaker. 

Never is pretty extreme. I survived the 2004 placement of Alan Keyes on the IL ballot for US Sen. Give it 6 years and things will look quite different.

[muon2]

Tightened up a bit: 320/325, 53.2 O'Donnell. Urquhart narrowly takes the DE-AL nomination, 48.8 to 47.5.

Last precincts were probably from inner Wilmington, which is quite black as I recall.

I'll change my tune here after looking at cinyc's map - looks like more of a rural vs. suburban contest.  Has not been the traditional tea party structure so far, but O'Donnell is not the typical tea party candidate

Here in IL the Tea Party seems to have the most activity in the outer suburbs. Suburban Will County is a particular hotbed.

Your primaries were so early, like literally five months ago, it's interesting.  Hard to believe Kirk wouldn't have had a slightly harder time (but still won) if his primary were right about now.

Actually 7 months ago, but who's counting.

[muon2]

Tightened up a bit: 320/325, 53.2 O'Donnell. Urquhart narrowly takes the DE-AL nomination, 48.8 to 47.5.

Last precincts were probably from inner Wilmington, which is quite black as I recall.

I'll change my tune here after looking at cinyc's map - looks like more of a rural vs. suburban contest.  Has not been the traditional tea party structure so far, but O'Donnell is not the typical tea party candidate

Here in IL the Tea Party seems to have the most activity in the outer suburbs. Suburban Will County is a particular hotbed.

Your primaries were so early, like literally five months ago, it's interesting.  Hard to believe Kirk wouldn't have had a slightly harder time (but still won) if his primary were right about now.

Yeah, really a missed opportunity there. Did the tea party put any money or resources or endorsements into taking down Kirk?

The word was definitely out in December and January. Here's a post on RedState form Jan.

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[muon2]

    Lamontagne is now leading by 43-37. Ayotte is finally cutting into his vote margin, bringing it down to 2,500 votes. 20.9% of precincts are in.

About 2400 vote difference with 21.3% in. The margin in Hillsborough is closing up. Perhaps her home of Nashua is reporting.

[muon2]

Oh NOEZ! Some people in another state chose a primary candidate I dislike! I'm so CONCERNED!

If you're a partisan it is concerning when it means basically throwing away a free seat.

Yeah, but it's basically the equivalent of someone like Zell Miller being primaried. Ideological purity is allowed to trump electability when the nominated candidate is essentially worthless to your goals.

The focus on legislative votes overlooks the first and most important vote. That's the one that organizes the body for the next two years. Committees are a critical and often overlooked part of the legislative process. Party control of the committees makes or breaks bills. Yes, there's a filibuster in the Senate, but tying bad bills up in committee is far more effective than bringing them to a floor fight. Bringing good alternatives out of committee to the floor is far more useful than posting the idea on a web site.

So that first vote by a Senator may set the entire agenda for Congress. That first vote doesn't mean so much if it's between 40 and 41 out of 100, or even 46 and 47. But if it ends up between vote 50 and vote 51, that's huge.

[muon2]

Ayotte is holding an 800 vote lead with 70% in. This will be hard to call until basically all the vote is counted.