2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Lunar]

I'm only interested in Scott's and D'Annunzio's race of the ones I follow, really.  I expect Bridgewater, Marshall, and Haley to win their races.  Lee & Cunningham would be much less of a surprise than Barrett winning, of course.

[Lunar]

Breaking News, guys:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH6_xx_w8sk&feature=player_embedded

lol!  Web Video #FAIL

Scott 65%-35% over Strom spawn with two more precints from Berkley county this time.

I'm rooting for Scott, even though that will help the national GOP, just out of basic sanity.  All of the national DC outlets referred to Scott as a "strong frontrunner" for the seat, even though his plurality wasn't that strong to begin with -- in the 30%'s right? -- and all of his opponents endorsed the racist's son.

I just hope the national GOP won't allow him to fail like Steele did talking about race issues, and that they won't think that their problems with reaching out to minorities are any less severe than they were yesterday.

[Lunar]

I voted for Scott and Haley today. I have a good feeling that at least one will win.

Haley was always a shoo-in, I mean, McMaster endorsed her, and despite his 3rd place showing, he's still a powerhouse in SC GOP politics, and Barrett only got 22% to her 49% in the first-round.

Haley could never act like she's a shoo-in, as she didn't want to depress her turn-out, but Barrett never had a chance without Haley suffering a non-fake scandal.

[Lunar]

Dorchester is now 1/6th in and Scott is winning it 75-25. He's really beating the pants off Thurmond.

Impressive, no?

Who would have, a year ago, thought that the son of Strom could EVER be soundly beaten by a black guy in a GOP primary SC-01, especially in a case like this where all of Scott's white opponents endorsed whats-his-face-son-of-the-racist?  If post-racial politics can profoundly show up in low-turnout GOP primaries in South Carolina, our country has a promising future indeed!

Remember, Scott only got like 31% in the first round -- not really that convincing of a showing.

[Lunar]

Most of these races are already over with, so I'll just keep wasting my time here for a while.

Yeah, that's why I've already jumped to my extrapolations.  I got burned doing that for the Lincoln/Halter thread too soon, but the only surprise of the night I see at this point being a mild upset of Bridgewater in Utah by the conservative grassroots...no real impact there outside of whether the GOP gets a sewage pipe for a Senator or someone eloquent who votes the exact same.

[Lunar]

Dorchester is now 1/6th in and Scott is winning it 75-25. He's really beating the pants off Thurmond.

Impressive, no?

Who would have, a year ago, thought that the son of Strom could EVER be soundly beaten by a black guy in a GOP primary SC-01, especially in a case like this where all of Scott's white opponents endorsed whats-his-face-son-of-the-racist?  If post-racial politics can profoundly show up in low-turnout GOP primaries in South Carolina, our country has a promising future indeed!

Remember, Scott only got like 31% in the first round -- not really that convincing of a showing.

I wonder how long this sentiment lasts? Especially when the GOP starts hyping Scott as their Obama. Its like their fifth or sixth now I beleive.

If anyone is the GOP's "next Obama" it's Marco Rubio until if/when Scott primaries Graham.

J.C. Watts didn't really help the GOP address their disconnect with black voters, as far as I know.  

BUT it's a very promising sign that the three of the GOP's current minority rising stars are taking place in places that were once possibly the center for racist politics (SC & LA).

[Lunar]

OTOH, boy was Cal Cunningham a real fail candidate.

Well, he was always a flop when the DSSC ----***SCREWED***--- him over, long before Marshall entered, by refusing to get behind him out of the slim hope that Etheridge and Shuler would reverse their previous statements that they wouldn't enter the race.  Marshall got into the race when there was a complete vacuum (besides Ken Lewis), and only then did the DSSC, very late in the game, decide, "Hey, let's get behind this young, veteran and elevate his profile, even if he doesn't win, he'll be a better candidate!"  

Of course, by then, it was long too late and Marshall has better connections statewide, having run so many times for statewide and for higher office before, and better name recognition.

Cal's only hope was getting into the race early and having the field cleared for him.  So this is, in my opinion, completely on the DSSC's shoulders for not realizing the obvious early enough.

[Lunar]

Yeah I assumed Halter was going to pull off the win before the returns really started hitting...

Dorchester is now 1/6th in and Scott is winning it 75-25. He's really beating the pants off Thurmond.

Impressive, no?

Who would have, a year ago, thought that the son of Strom could EVER be soundly beaten by a black guy in a GOP primary SC-01, especially in a case like this where all of Scott's white opponents endorsed whats-his-face-son-of-the-racist?  If post-racial politics can profoundly show up in low-turnout GOP primaries in South Carolina, our country has a promising future indeed!

Remember, Scott only got like 31% in the first round -- not really that convincing of a showing.

I wonder how long this sentiment lasts? Especially when the GOP starts hyping Scott as their Obama. Its like their fifth or sixth now I beleive.

If anyone is the GOP's "next Obama" it's Marco Rubio until if/when Scott primaries Graham.

J.C. Watts didn't really help the GOP address their disconnect with black voters, as far as I know.  

BUT it's a very promising sign that the three of the GOP's current minority rising stars are taking place in places that were once possibly the center for racist politics (SC & LA).

I guess that the epicenter for racial voting among whites may have shifted northwards towards places like West Virginia, PA-12, and Arkansas, which perhaps should be taken into account for any meta-analysis?  PA-12 was the only Kerry-McCain district...

What do you guys think?  

[Lunar]

OTOH, boy was Cal Cunningham a real fail candidate.

Well, he was always a flop when the DSSC ----***SCREWED***--- him over, long before Marshall entered, by refusing to get behind him out of the slim hope that Etheridge and Shuler would reverse their previous statements that they wouldn't enter the race.  Marshall got into the race when there was a complete vacuum (besides Ken Lewis), and only then did the DSSC, very late in the game, decide, "Hey, let's get behind this young, veteran and elevate his profile, even if he doesn't win, he'll be a better candidate!"  

Of course, by then, it was long too late and Marshall has better connections statewide, having run so many times for statewide and for higher office before, and better name recognition.

Cal's only hope was getting into the race early and having the field cleared for him.  So this is, in my opinion, completely on the DSSC's shoulders for not realizing the obvious early enough.

Isn't the DSCC lucky Etheridge didn't get in now?  

Though I'm not sure Marshall is much better.

Still, as I have long said, when you lose a primary, except on rare occasions, you suck more than the candidate who won.

True, true, I mean, candidate quality matters a lot here.  But Cal had a nice biography, but to have a chance against someone with such high name recognition, regardless of her actual potential to win, the gears had to start rotating a lot sooner.  The reason to run Cal wasn't to beat Burr, but rather to prime him for future statewide office.

I know you aren't a fan of Schumer, but you have to admit he knew a lot about recruitment and a running the right candidates in the right states [Rahm did as well fwiw].  North Carolina would have been entirely different if Roy Cooper was getting a personal call from Schumer every four hours.

[Lunar]

Wow, faceplant on Utah.  Lee had it in him after all!

[Lunar]

I'm not sure how I feel about the governor's race here.  Bentley seems slightly to the left of Byrne on hating all teachers unions [despite the fact that Alabama doesn't really have much in the way of required unionization of teachers or anything] but to the right of Byrne on social issues.  As SSP noted, Byrne & Bentley were the two '"sane" candidates of the four major contenders in the original primary.

Roby winning means that Bright will have to sweat a little more, and could indicate that making crazy YouTube videos isn't effective for winning Republican primaries in Alabama, after the latest victim for Ag Comish

[Lunar]

Wow, if The Ox doesn't make the run-off, that's be crazy!

I thought Deal was facing ethical issues and was too tied to Congress to do anything?  Maybe the Newt endorsement works?!

[Lunar]

Why hasn't this been called for Barnes?

[Lunar]

I live in GA-07. Woodall's had an amazingly well-organized campaign throughout the district. I wasn't aware until this thread that people outside the district didn't know that.

For what it's worth, I voted for him, as did my entire family. Also, unrelated, but Hice is a horrible person.

What's the difference between them?

[Lunar]

It is starting to look like the south might have two Republican women candidate for Governor.

Handel has a much longer way to go in her run-off than Haley did

Can't believe the Ox is in 4th

[Lunar]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end?  Certainly, his actual appearance in the run-off is a mild surprise, and pundits like to attribute such things as wins for potential presidential candidates rather than anything that happened on the ground



So, what does the Deal - Handel run-off look like?


Handel is endorsed by Jan Brewer, and Deal is running on a platform of bringing Arizona's laws to Georgia.   Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtlKzckj_5s&feature=player_embedded



How did Deal vote on TARP?



Deal seems like he has ethics toublez & a D.C. resume that will put him at a disadvantage.

[Lunar]

Oh man, this Deal ad is so gross:

http://www.youtube.com/user/thedealreel#p/a/u/1/3l2m_-PRDno


The way he says "I'm a man of my word" sounds so patronizing

[Lunar]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end?  

How well did Deal run in Newt's old CD?  Or Newt's newer CD?  

I'm not sure.  I haven't been following this race [why would I?], but I do follow D.C. politics, and thus Newt's endorsement broke the threshold to enter into my consciousness, and, I imagine, tons of D.C. reporter type peoples' minds.

The only things I ever remember reading about Nathan Deal on, say, Politico's 2010 stuff:
1) He resigned early, which helped the Democratic majority threshold in the House
2) Ethics troubles
3) Newt endorsement


But to be fair, Newt has a national persona & certainly ran ads and had fans throughout the media market(s) affecting his district.

Palin certainly played a role in Handel's surge, so I imagine that Newt will be at least modestly credited with Deal's odd late surge?  


It seems that Deal based a huge component of his campaign on opposing illegal immigration, which makes Brewer's odd endorsement of Handel even more funky.  Brewer's endorsement being funky, of course, because she hasn't even been elected to her first term yet as governor, but she's making endorsements in Georgia's race [although, admittedly, they were both Secretary of States and probably kind of knew each other].  Probably explains why Brewer's primary challengers are dropping like flies.  How many other governors running for their first full-term make endorsements in primaries on the other side of the country?

[Lunar]

Who would have been stronger against Fallin?  The Lt Gov, or the 16-year State Attorney General?

Who knows?  Fallin will need to make some missteps, it's hard to say who would be the more talented candidate to capitalize on them should they occur

[as someone who hasn't followed this race]

[Lunar]

Who would have been stronger against Fallin?  The Lt Gov, or the 16-year State Attorney General?

Who knows?  Fallin will need to make some missteps, it's hard to say who would be the more talented candidate to capitalize on them should they occur

[as someone who hasn't followed this race]

I think Jari Askins has a great shot at beating Mary Fallin.  It will be a very close race this November just like it was in 2002 between Brad Henry and Steve Largent.  That race wasn't called until Wednesday morning.

Why?

[Lunar]

Heh, I didn't realize this Youth Camp Director was going to be a Congressman until now



Note the URL for that imge:

http://images.politico.com/global/news/100728_lankford_headscratch_ap_289.jpg

[Lunar]

Well, there's still the runoff.

Yeah, but when have those done anything interesting lately?

[Lunar]

Snyder's ad campaign to victory, should he win this, will be one for the history books imo.

[Lunar]

I can't hate on the Tough Nerd too much, even if he's a Republican

[Lunar]

Am I missing anything?

Outside of it not mattering?