2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Smash255]

Didn't someone do an analysis of the Suozzi loss and find that he won the NY-04 areas but lost big in the NY-03 areas? I swear I remember reading something about that.

Even without looking deeper into it, no question about that.  Mangano is also from the NY-3 portion of Nassau (Bethpage) and represented part of that area in the County Legislature.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Didn't someone do an analysis of the Suozzi loss and find that he won the NY-04 areas but lost big in the NY-03 areas? I swear I remember reading something about that.

Considering the intent with how the districts are drawn, that hardly would be a shocker.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hawaii's primary is tonight, for those of you that want to stay up until midnight ET. I won't be.

Results pages: AP | Official

[Meeker]

Some minor problems reported at a few Hawaii polling places but nothing out of the ordinary. Budget cuts have caused some voters to go to alternate sites than they're used to and that's causing a bit of confusion.

[Meeker]

Clearly no one cares about this primary, but with the absentee vote reporting (estimated at 12.5% of the overall vote) Abercrombie leads 59%-40%. The AP has called it for him but the local station is holding back and even the Abercrombie camp doesn't seem ready to declare victory yet. I think it's pretty clear he won but maybe the Hawai'ians know something the AP and I don't.

The next results are due at 9:30 PM local time (3:30 AM EST). I plan to be sound asleep.

[Eraserhead]

Clearly no one cares about this primary,

Wow, that appears to be an understatement... I kind of figured that a couple of people would be posting about it at least.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maybe if there was something interesting people would care, like if Case and Hanabusa were at it again. Then there'd be lots of posting.

[Tender Branson]

Hawaii results (99% counted):

Governor (Dems): Abercrombie 60%, Hannemann 38%
Governor (GOP): Aiona 95%

Turnout: Dems 224.000 voters, GOP 42.000 voters

Senate (Dems): Inouye 88%
Senate (GOP): Cavasso 67%

Turnout: Dems 213.000 voters, GOP 33.000 voters

HI-01 (Dems): Hanabusa 79%
HI-01 (GOP): Djou 97%

Turnout: Dems 100.000 voters, GOP 20.000 voters

HI-02 (Dems): Hirono
HI-02 (GOP): Willoughby 47%, Wharton 46%

[Niemeyerite]

Hawaii results (99% counted):

Governor (Dems): Abercrombie 60%, Hannemann 38%
Governor (GOP): Aiona 95%

Turnout: Dems 224.000 voters, GOP 42.000 voters

Senate (Dems): Inouye 88%
Senate (GOP): Cavasso 67%

Turnout: Dems 213.000 voters, GOP 33.000 voters

HI-01 (Dems): Hanabusa 79%
HI-01 (GOP): Djou 97%

Turnout: Dems 100.000 voters, GOP 20.000 voters

HI-02 (Dems): Hirono
HI-02 (GOP): Willoughby 47%, Wharton 46%

Hanabusa can win this race without any problems given the GOP turnout.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's also the fact that anyone not on the west coast was probably in bed at the time. Anyway, I'm glad the homophobe Hanneman lost.

Hawaii appears not to have party registration, and the only primary of note was the Dem primary for Governor, so I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from the turnout.

[Dgov]

Hawaii results (99% counted):

Governor (Dems): Abercrombie 60%, Hannemann 38%
Governor (GOP): Aiona 95%

Turnout: Dems 224.000 voters, GOP 42.000 voters

Senate (Dems): Inouye 88%
Senate (GOP): Cavasso 67%

Turnout: Dems 213.000 voters, GOP 33.000 voters

HI-01 (Dems): Hanabusa 79%
HI-01 (GOP): Djou 97%

Turnout: Dems 100.000 voters, GOP 20.000 voters

HI-02 (Dems): Hirono
HI-02 (GOP): Willoughby 47%, Wharton 46%

Hanabusa can win this race without any problems given the GOP turnout.

Brown won in MA despite having something close to a 10-1 turnout deficit for the primaries.

[tpfkaw]

Hawaii results (99% counted):

Governor (Dems): Abercrombie 60%, Hannemann 38%
Governor (GOP): Aiona 95%

Turnout: Dems 224.000 voters, GOP 42.000 voters

Senate (Dems): Inouye 88%
Senate (GOP): Cavasso 67%

Turnout: Dems 213.000 voters, GOP 33.000 voters

HI-01 (Dems): Hanabusa 79%
HI-01 (GOP): Djou 97%

Turnout: Dems 100.000 voters, GOP 20.000 voters

HI-02 (Dems): Hirono
HI-02 (GOP): Willoughby 47%, Wharton 46%

Hanabusa can win this race without any problems given the GOP turnout.

Brown won in MA despite having something close to a 10-1 turnout deficit for the primaries.

But Coakley had three serious challengers, while Brown really didn't.

[Torie]

I suspect Djou will win. Yet another prediction for someone to laugh at in a few weeks.

[Dgov]

Hawaii results (99% counted):

Governor (Dems): Abercrombie 60%, Hannemann 38%
Governor (GOP): Aiona 95%

Turnout: Dems 224.000 voters, GOP 42.000 voters

Senate (Dems): Inouye 88%
Senate (GOP): Cavasso 67%

Turnout: Dems 213.000 voters, GOP 33.000 voters

HI-01 (Dems): Hanabusa 79%
HI-01 (GOP): Djou 97%

Turnout: Dems 100.000 voters, GOP 20.000 voters

HI-02 (Dems): Hirono
HI-02 (GOP): Willoughby 47%, Wharton 46%

Hanabusa can win this race without any problems given the GOP turnout.

Brown won in MA despite having something close to a 10-1 turnout deficit for the primaries.

But Coakley had three serious challengers, while Brown really didn't.

Well, Djou didn't have anything close to a serious primary, while Hanabusa still had to officially claim the mantle of the Democratic candidate.  Voting in HI is also Mail-only IIRC, which severly depresses primary turnout for uncompetitive races

[cinyc]

Well, Djou didn't have anything close to a serious primary, while Hanabusa still had to officially claim the mantle of the Democratic candidate.  Voting in HI is also Mail-only IIRC, which severly depresses primary turnout for uncompetitive races

The special election was mail-in only to save money.  But I'm pretty sure regularly scheduled primaries and general elections are not.

[Meeker]

Well, Djou didn't have anything close to a serious primary, while Hanabusa still had to officially claim the mantle of the Democratic candidate.  Voting in HI is also Mail-only IIRC, which severly depresses primary turnout for uncompetitive races

The special election was mail-in only to save money.  But I'm pretty sure regularly scheduled primaries and general elections are not.

Correct.

[Mr.Phips]

Hawaii results (99% counted):

Governor (Dems): Abercrombie 60%, Hannemann 38%
Governor (GOP): Aiona 95%

Turnout: Dems 224.000 voters, GOP 42.000 voters

Senate (Dems): Inouye 88%
Senate (GOP): Cavasso 67%

Turnout: Dems 213.000 voters, GOP 33.000 voters

HI-01 (Dems): Hanabusa 79%
HI-01 (GOP): Djou 97%

Turnout: Dems 100.000 voters, GOP 20.000 voters

HI-02 (Dems): Hirono
HI-02 (GOP): Willoughby 47%, Wharton 46%

Hanabusa can win this race without any problems given the GOP turnout.

Brown won in MA despite having something close to a 10-1 turnout deficit for the primaries.

Brown didnt have the former Congressman of his district dominating at the top of the ticket. 

[WMS]

In order, then...

Lynch is presumably a conservadem because he voted against Obamacare.

It's not quite that simple, from this little bit he criticized it from both the left and right. Then again, so did I.

We're a bit more tolerant of dissenting opinions than the GOP then clearly.

But only a bit. There is definitely an effort by the NARAListas to drive out the pro-lifers if they can, however (didn't Stupak get a challenge before he dropped out?) - true in NM, as well, complete with murky applications of non-profit law. And then there's the official party platforms...

Lynch got his primary challenge because of his vote on healthcare. Dennigan also didn't really mention Langevin's pro-life stances during the campaign. Neither of these races had anything to do with abortion.

But I bet that was an underlying reason for why they keep getting primary challenges, hmm? Especially with Langevin (I recall the NARAListas screaming at the very thought of Langevin getting the nod to run against Chafee in 2006)...

I didn't say anything about Langevin's ideology? And Lynch is pretty conservative for a guy in a safe Dem district.

- MA-09 (D) - Conservadem Stephen Lynch faces a challenge from the left in attorney Mac D'Alessandro. Lynch, of course, has a large cash advantage.

Right there. Ah, this does keep coming up with him, but as Al put it...

Though not really for that district. In any case, that he could even be thought as such is an indication of how the meaning of the term 'conservative democrat' has shifted almost out of recognition over the past couple of decades.

I mean, seriously. I see this as another sign of the increasing radicalization of both parties, a process which has been going on for a while, but is increasing...

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

People don't dislike Lynch because of his stance on abortion, it was more his no vote on healthcare, when he didn't need to vote no.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I suspect Djou will win. Yet another prediction for someone to laugh at in a few weeks.

I'm still with you on that, Torie.

[Meeker]

Lynch got his primary challenge because of his vote on healthcare. Dennigan also didn't really mention Langevin's pro-life stances during the campaign. Neither of these races had anything to do with abortion.

But I bet that was an underlying reason for why they keep getting primary challenges, hmm? Especially with Langevin (I recall the NARAListas screaming at the very thought of Langevin getting the nod to run against Chafee in 2006)...

No, it really wasn't the reason at all this year. You clearly haven't been following these races at all and shouldn't comment on something you don't know anything about.

Some of your responses to the other posters are also bizarre but I'll let them take care of those.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In order, then...

I didn't say anything about Langevin's ideology? And Lynch is pretty conservative for a guy in a safe Dem district.

- MA-09 (D) - Conservadem Stephen Lynch faces a challenge from the left in attorney Mac D'Alessandro. Lynch, of course, has a large cash advantage.

Right there. Ah, this does keep coming up with him, but as Al put it...

I think all those emoticons have affected your reading comprehension. Read again carefully.

[WMS]

People don't dislike Lynch because of his stance on abortion, it was more his no vote on healthcare, when he didn't need to vote no.

I'll partially agree - there certainly are those who dislike him for that stance, but his vote on healthcare has higher salience this year. And Lynch has faced problems for quite a while past this year...

No, it really wasn't the reason at all this year. You clearly haven't been following these races at all and shouldn't comment on something you don't know anything about.

Some of your responses to the other posters are also bizarre but I'll let them take care of those.

Arrogant little prick, aren't you? If you had paid attention to what I said, I was referring to the overall trend of them getting primary challenges and not just for this year. I'll agree that the immediate salience of the abortion issue for this year is certainly less, but as part of the long-term trend it is certainly a reason those two get primary challenges. Now, instead of having a reasoned discussion you decided to be an ass about it, so what say you improve your attitude a bit, eh?

I think all those emoticons have affected your reading comprehension. Read again carefully.

Ah, I misunderstood the part about Langevin. I admit I'm wrong in mistaking your comments about Lynch (who is still not a conservadem - Gene Taylor he is not) for those on Langevin. Sorry for the confusion on that point.

[Meeker]

No, it really wasn't the reason at all this year. You clearly haven't been following these races at all and shouldn't comment on something you don't know anything about.

Some of your responses to the other posters are also bizarre but I'll let them take care of those.

Arrogant little prick, aren't you? If you had paid attention to what I said, I was referring to the overall trend of them getting primary challenges and not just for this year. I'll agree that the immediate salience of the abortion issue for this year is certainly less, but as part of the long-term trend it is certainly a reason those two get primary challenges. Now, instead of having a reasoned discussion you decided to be an ass about it, so what say you improve your attitude a bit, eh?

Haha, whatever man. You came in here talking out of your ass about something you didn't know anything about and when you got called out on it you just resorted to personal attacks. Have a good day.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bumping for the very last primary, the LA-03 runoff. There's also an open primary for Lt. Governor. Results will be here tomorrow starting 9 PM Eastern.