2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Verily]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

ugh, why is he wasting his time?  Does he have any sense?  DOES HE ACTUALLY THINK THAT SPLITTING THE VOTE WITH ANOTHER REPUBLICAN WILL HELP HIS CHANCES, EVEN THOUGH HE DIDN'T HAVE A CHANCE IN THE FIRST PLACE?

ugh

If the Conservative Party won less than 2% of the vote, they'd lose their automatic ballot access and die almost instantly, like what happened to the Liberal Party after 2002. He's trying to save the Conservatives.

[Hash]

Does Lamontagne have a chance of pulling back ahead with the remaining 44 polls?

[rbt48]

One would almost think that NH knew it had a good close race here and decided to drag out the drama as long as reasonably possible. 

What a stark contrast from the speed that Dixville Notch reports compared with other parts of the state!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, since the smoke has cleared here in Massachusetts, let me run down some of the key race.

Overall, surprisingly good turnout for Republicans, who had only one statewide primary (that ended in a lopsided romp).

MA-10
On the Republican side, it looks like my predictions of a Perry romp were accurate. He scored 31,361 votes -- that's 62% -- to Malone's 14,875 (29%) with a couple others bringing up the rear. In fact, Perry got more votes than the Democratic nominee, Norfolk DA Bill Keating (28,617), who narrowly edged State Sen. O'Leary (27,817). Democratic turnout barely outpaced Republican turnout, despite both sides having highly competitive primaries (and despite this being, you know, Massachusetts). That's a dead canary kind of warning in a D+5 district.

MA Attorney General
Martha Coakley was unopposed. The real news here is that Republicans were able to get someone nominated -- Jim McKenna -- via write-in ballots. (That's no small feat, considering 10,000 people had to write him in statewide.) McKenna's presence on the ballot means Republicans have fielded a candidate for every constitutional office here in Massachusetts for the first time in a long while. This race has potential, if only because McKenna is gifted with Coakley's huge negatives and benefits from a strong GOP environment nationally.

MA Treasurer
Grossman (D) won with 61%. Not much surprise here. He faces State Rep. Karyn Polito (R) in November. Grossman is the early favorite, of course, but Polito is unusually well funded for a GOP challenger.

MA Auditor
Democrats got their best nominee in Suzanne Bump, who won 50% against two opponents. On the GOP side, Mary Z. Connaughton slaughtered her opponent, Kamal Jain, with 87% of the vote. This one, I think, has the potential to be an interesting race -- Connaughton has a great message in that she's the candidate for auditor who is actually an auditor.

Elsewhere in the Commonwealth
There were a few other interesting races here and there. Golnik (R) beat Maes for the right to face Rep. Niki Tsongas (D) in MA-05. A few state reps lost their primary, including Pam Richardson (D) out in Framingham.

[Brittain33]

MA-10
On the Republican side, it looks like my predictions of a Perry romp were accurate. He scored 31,361 votes -- that's 62% -- to Malone's 14,875 (29%) with a couple others bringing up the rear. In fact, Perry got more votes than the Democratic nominee, Norfolk DA Bill Keating (28,617), who narrowly edged State Sen. O'Leary (27,817). Democratic turnout barely outpaced Republican turnout, despite both sides having highly competitive primaries (and despite this being, you know, Massachusetts). That's a dead canary kind of warning in a D+5 district.

How many people voted in the 1996 Delahunt-Johnston match? I can't find that number anywhere. That would be a good point of comparison.

Keating's going to pound Perry on his "I frisked a girl and I liked it" problem. 45,000 votes is good for a Republican primary in a Mass. congressional district, but he'll need a lot more than that to win and will have to be careful not be completely defined by his scandal if he wants to ride general Republican coattails to win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How many people voted in the 1996 Delahunt-Johnston match? I can't find that number anywhere. That would be a good point of comparison.

You didn't look hard enough! 

In the 1996 Democratic primary, 47,484 people showed up. Compare that to the GOP side, where turnout stood at 20,269 for a similarly crowded race.

Keating's going to pound Perry on his "I frisked a girl and I liked it" problem. 45,000 votes is good for a Republican primary in a Mass. congressional district, but he'll need a lot more than that to win and will have to be careful not be completely defined by his scandal if he wants to ride general Republican coattails to win.

I guess it depends on how Keating spins it. Had Perry been the one doing the strip searching, it'd be much more of a slam dunk issue.

It clearly wasn't enough to cause Perry any problem in the primary.

[Brittain33]

In the 1996 Democratic primary, 47,484 people showed up. Compare that to the GOP side, where turnout stood at 20,269 for a similarly crowded race.

It's reassuring to me that this primary drew so many more Dems. But, yeah, in this district in this year, Keating is going to have to win over a lot of independents who voted for Scott Brown over Coakley, which is doable but not a gimme.

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I have a wicked little hope that by Election Day, most people will think it was him because that's what they digest from the news.

The quotes from his supervisor etc. will make for a strong attack ad. Whether it works, we'll see.

[Torie]

You  have just got to love the Manchester Union Leader, bless it.  Here is how its front page story starts off regarding the Senate race:

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[Torie]

Karl Rove unloads on O'Donnell

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jlh1EsgS7Q&feature=player_embedded

Amazing.

Well the silver lining of watching that interview is that Hannity was well - owned by Karl - totally.  It is sad that Hannity will probably still be on the tube doing his brand of "journalism" when I depart from this mortal coil. He will just be around forever. Folks seem to lap up his agitprop as if it were a nice chilled glass of Gray Goose.

[You kip if you want to...]

I would hate to have been Beau Biden today.

[Brittain33]

I would hate to have been Beau Biden today.

Serves him right for treating this opportunity so cavalierly. If he wanted to be a U.S. Senator, he should have fought for the chance.

I'm biased, I hate the idea of Beau Biden being handed the Senate seat. Whatever good he's done in his military service and trying to build up his own career... the royalty aspect is gross.

[Badger]

Frankly, a competative Castle-Beau Biden race in November would've greatly highlighted the issue of electability in the GOP primary. Played to the average primary voter, that might have been enough of a difference for Castle to win.

[Brittain33]

Ayotte declared the winner in NH.

[cinyc]

Ayotte declared the winner in NH.

No doubt true, but by whom?

[Sam Spade]

Frankly, a competative Castle-Beau Biden race in November would've greatly highlighted the issue of electability in the GOP primary. Played to the average primary voter, that might have been enough of a difference for Castle to win.

Castle-Biden was never going to happen because neither of the parties who could make it happen wanted to.

[Brittain33]

Ayotte declared the winner in NH.

No doubt true, but by whom?

Secretary of State in NH.

[cinyc]

Ayotte declared the winner in NH.

No doubt true, but by whom?

Secretary of State in NH.

AP is still stuck on 274/301 - and hasn't declared a winner.  Is someone else showing complete returns?

Edit: I see the NH SoS has the tally at  Ayotte 53,044  Lamontagne 51,377, with no further details as to town breakdown.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I see a recount coming.

[Brittain33]

I see a recount coming.

Margin is too big for Lamontagne to risk dragging this out unless he's nuts.

[cinyc]

I see a recount coming.

Margin is too big for Lamontagne to risk dragging this out unless he's nuts.

Well, assuming the margin is under 2%, it won't cost him much - $500 or $1,000, depending on whether it's under 1%.  Right now, it appears to be in between 1 and 2% (though the exact difference depends on how many votes others received in the final tally, which we don't know).

[You kip if you want to...]

I see a recount coming.

Margin is too big for Lamontagne to risk dragging this out unless he's nuts.

He's a tea partier. The nutiness is implied.

[cinyc]

A new NH law requires the margin be within 1.5% of the total ballots cast in the primary in order to be eligible for recount.   Lamontagne is almost certainly within that threshhold.  But he only has until 5PM today to decide whether to request a recount.

[cinyc]

I see a recount coming.

Margin is too big for Lamontagne to risk dragging this out unless he's nuts.

He's a tea partier. The nutiness is implied.

Coons once called himself a "bearded marxist".  The nuttiness is implied.

See how that works?

[You kip if you want to...]

I see a recount coming.

Margin is too big for Lamontagne to risk dragging this out unless he's nuts.

He's a tea partier. The nutiness is implied.

Coons once called himself a "bearded marxist".  The nuttiness is implied.

See how that works?

Marxism = "Nutty" is subjective.

[cinyc]

I see a recount coming.

Margin is too big for Lamontagne to risk dragging this out unless he's nuts.

He's a tea partier. The nutiness is implied.

Coons once called himself a "bearded marxist".  The nuttiness is implied.

See how that works?

Marxism = "Nutty" is subjective.

Tea Party = "Nutty" is subjective, except to "progressives" who think the tea party is the devil.  Marxism = "Nutty" is subjective, except to conservatives who think Marxism is the devil.