2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

NH with 201 of 301 and Ayotte up by 715:

[muon2]

Ayotte is holding an 800 vote lead with 70% in. This will be hard to call until basically all the vote is counted.

[Sam Spade]

Unless something weird is out there, I suspect Ayotte wins.  She's up by 700 now.

Torie is right - turnout on the Republican side seems a little low.  Probably hurt Lamontagne.

[nhmagic]

That's not true NCYank.  Denny f-in Hastert, Trent Lott, Tom Delay, Livingston, Dole, Frist (who supports Obamacare) and porker Mitch McConnell spent our way out of office, added new regulations and FDR-like invasions of freedom like the Patriot Act (which Obama quietly but enthusiastically supports).  The leadership doesn't just consist of those individuals however.  It also consists of entrenched individuals like Snowe, Collins, McCain and now Grahamnesty.  They were all working together not just to simply pass moderate policy (as something like a middle class tax cut would have been), but to add BRAND NEW entitlements and put a very liberal immigration plan together for pete's sake.

Most of them are Conservatives who lost their way.


Its hard to put them in the same group with Castle, Simmons, Kirk, Chafee. They may annoy you on issues but they certainly were not "in charge" at the time either. Quite the opposite.

Plus my defination of conservative differs from yours substantially, especially on defense. Some of the people who lost to the Tea Party like Norton, and Grayson were fine on Immigration and every other issue to be considered Hard Core Conservatives by myself and perfectly adequate ideologically. I am not an anti-war zealot, but I will agree Iraq was a mistake in hindsight, unless you have a time machine though so we could know then what we do now. I supported the Patriot Act, also. This is all the more surprising considering I was firmly opposed to the Iraq war in 2003.

NCYank what is the difference between a conservative who has lost their way and a liberal?  Those individuals have certainly not found their way back and do not deserve leadership.  That's why O'Donnell's victory was so important as a symbol.  It revealed how much they are against conservatives (whether of my stripe or yours).  They immediately announced that they were dropping financial support for her in the race - I guess that one couldn't wait for a quiet press release a couple of weeks later.  Norton is one of the few establishment endorsed individuals this cycle who has endorsed her winning opponent and held decent views.  Grayson has been such a sore loser that he hasn't even been able to endorse Paul and as he was being groomed by McConnell (who in order to win in 08 campaigned on the virtues of pork), I fully suspect that he would have been sending pork straight back home to KY.

I probably hold closer views to you than you think, but differ on the means.  The Patriot Act in a trustworthy person's hands can be a great tool to fight terrorism, yet in Obama's hands is an opening to an invasion of privacy like none other.  That's why it should not exist.  With that said, I think we need a decent defense structure that can also be offensive (particularly in Israel's case).

[Beet]

Something else I should've pointed out in response to Beet's freaking out earlier, you don't really think Joe Biden won't be doing some visits home on behalf of Coons right? It's not like his current job doesn't allow him any free time.

I'm not freaking out man. The older republicans here, jmfcst, torie, and sam see things that none of us see, and they are saying we're in deep trouble.

Honestly Brtd, your posts are just bizzare. What's your point about Biden supposed to be? That he will somehow help Coons? Do you even think he's even that popular in Delaware anymore? I mean, ever since he's joined the administration he's mostly been known for dumb comments like "summer of recovery" and "500,000 jobs". Plus he represents all the old establishment baggage that's unpopular these days. If Obama's approval rating is really 50%, he could probably help Coons more than Biden.

[Torie]

I just found out he was once photographed burning the Serbian flag outside the Serbian embassy and screaming pro-Kosovo slogans. So I hate him now.

Seems like a decent fellow.

He has Albanian ancestry. The bigots on Free Republic trashed him for that. They were about 10-1 pro Serbia, and anti Bosnia and Kosovo. I of course was in the minority, along with an retired CIA agent, who knew the region like the back of his hand. We used to PM each other, about all the vicious bigots, and some bent on near genocide. Some even wanted American troops to be killed, until JimRob decided his business model did not include the endorsing of killing American troops.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Unless something weird is out there, I suspect Ayotte wins.  She's up by 700 now.

Torie is right - turnout on the Republican side seems a little low.  Probably hurt Lamontagne.

     Agreed. The consistent erosion of Lamontagne's position as the night went on has been intriguing, to say the least. I guess it validates the hypothesis that Manchester was an area of uncommon strength for Lamontagne.

[Meeker]

NH-02 has been called for Bass

[Associate Justice PiT]

I just found out he was once photographed burning the Serbian flag outside the Serbian embassy and screaming pro-Kosovo slogans. So I hate him now.

Seems like a decent fellow.

He has Albanian ancestry. The bigots on Free Republic trashed him for that. They were about 10-1 pro Serbia, and anti Bosnia and Kosovo. I of course was in the minority, along with an retired CIA agent, who knew the region like the back of his hand. We used to PM each other, about all the vicious bigots, and some bent on near genocide. Some even wanted American troops to be killed, until JimRob decided his business model did not include the endorsing of killing American troops.

     Is pro-Serbia sentiment normal? One of my best friends is Slovenian, & as such my view of the region has been informed by someone with a strongly anti-Serbian bent.

[redcommander]

NH-02 has been called for Bass

Damn, I was hoping Horn would defeat that big spender.

[cinyc]

AP hasn't called it last I checked, but I agree with Sam - Rice should be cooked by Schneiderman.  Brodsky seems to have hurt her in Westchester.   It also looks like Paladino is getting Edwards, not Ognibene, as his running mate, given what's still out.  Bizarrely, Paladino didn't help out Ognibene much in Erie County, while Long Islanders voted for Edwards, like Lazio would have wanted.

[Torie]

I just found out he was once photographed burning the Serbian flag outside the Serbian embassy and screaming pro-Kosovo slogans. So I hate him now.

Seems like a decent fellow.

He has Albanian ancestry. The bigots on Free Republic trashed him for that. They were about 10-1 pro Serbia, and anti Bosnia and Kosovo. I of course was in the minority, along with an retired CIA agent, who knew the region like the back of his hand. We used to PM each other, about all the vicious bigots, and some bent on near genocide. Some even wanted American troops to be killed, until JimRob decided his business model did not include the endorsing of killing American troops.

     Is pro-Serbia sentiment normal? One of my best friends is Slovenian, & as such my view of the region has been informed by someone with a strongly anti-Serbian bent.

It was normal for fundamentalist Christians, who also hated Clinton, and since it was Clinton's war, that just fed the fire. I strongly supported Clinton in both endeavors. It was simply the only moral choice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just found out he was once photographed burning the Serbian flag outside the Serbian embassy and screaming pro-Kosovo slogans. So I hate him now.

Seems like a decent fellow.

He has Albanian ancestry. The bigots on Free Republic trashed him for that. They were about 10-1 pro Serbia, and anti Bosnia and Kosovo. I of course was in the minority, along with an retired CIA agent, who knew the region like the back of his hand. We used to PM each other, about all the vicious bigots, and some bent on near genocide. Some even wanted American troops to be killed, until JimRob decided his business model did not include the endorsing of killing American troops.

     Is pro-Serbia sentiment normal? One of my best friends is Slovenian, & as such my view of the region has been informed by someone with a strongly anti-Serbian bent.

The Freepers probably liked the Serbs because they were Christian unlike the Muslim Bosniaks and Albanians. My position is that they were horrendous in Bosnia but really no worse than the Croats, and were certainly the better side in Kosovo which was basically a battle between an at least semi-democratic state and a terrorist insurgency.

Of course the Croats are Catholic, but that's not really why I don't like them so much, it has more to do with their fascist sympathies and Nazi supporting.

Oddly enough, there are probably FAR more fundamentalist Christians in Albania than Serbia today.

[cinyc]

...and the AP calls NY-Dem-AG for Schneiderman.

[Torie]

We can debate the doings in the former Yugoslavia another time BRTD. The Balkans become a big hobby of mine, and I read a ton about its history, from the beginning, because it was just so fascinating - and so F'ed up.

[cinyc]

Ayotte's pulling away, up by almost 1,300 now with 238/301 in.

[Meeker]

We've hit the one hour mark... Feel free to report anytime, D.C.

[Smash255]

...and the AP calls NY-Dem-AG for Schneiderman.

Not surprising.  I would say the ending margin will be somewhere between 10,000-12,000

[cinyc]

We've hit the one hour mark... Feel free to report anytime, D.C.

Why should they?  DC seems to want to win the title of slowest counter today, but New Hampshire is really giving them a run for their money.

[Meeker]

Alright, Ayotte and Guinta are both going to win. All that's left is D.C. which can go f**ck itself. I'm out.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That's not true NCYank.  Denny f-in Hastert, Trent Lott, Tom Delay, Livingston, Dole, Frist (who supports Obamacare) and porker Mitch McConnell spent our way out of office, added new regulations and FDR-like invasions of freedom like the Patriot Act (which Obama quietly but enthusiastically supports).  The leadership doesn't just consist of those individuals however.  It also consists of entrenched individuals like Snowe, Collins, McCain and now Grahamnesty.  They were all working together not just to simply pass moderate policy (as something like a middle class tax cut would have been), but to add BRAND NEW entitlements and put a very liberal immigration plan together for pete's sake.

Most of them are Conservatives who lost their way.


Its hard to put them in the same group with Castle, Simmons, Kirk, Chafee. They may annoy you on issues but they certainly were not "in charge" at the time either. Quite the opposite.

Plus my defination of conservative differs from yours substantially, especially on defense. Some of the people who lost to the Tea Party like Norton, and Grayson were fine on Immigration and every other issue to be considered Hard Core Conservatives by myself and perfectly adequate ideologically. I am not an anti-war zealot, but I will agree Iraq was a mistake in hindsight, unless you have a time machine though so we could know then what we do now. I supported the Patriot Act, also. This is all the more surprising considering I was firmly opposed to the Iraq war in 2003.

NCYank what is the difference between a conservative who has lost their way and a liberal?  Those individuals have certainly not found their way back and do not deserve leadership.  That's why O'Donnell's victory was so important as a symbol.  It revealed how much they are against conservatives (whether of my stripe or yours).  They immediately announced that they were dropping financial support for her in the race - I guess that one couldn't wait for a quiet press release a couple of weeks later.  Norton is one of the few establishment endorsed individuals this cycle who has endorsed her winning opponent and held decent views.  Grayson has been such a sore loser that he hasn't even been able to endorse Paul and as he was being groomed by McConnell (who in order to win in 08 campaigned on the virtues of pork), I fully suspect that he would have been sending pork straight back home to KY.

I probably hold closer views to you than you think, but differ on the means.  The Patriot Act in a trustworthy person's hands can be a great tool to fight terrorism, yet in Obama's hands is an opening to an invasion of privacy like none other.  That's why it should not exist.  With that said, I think we need a decent defense structure that can also be offensive (particularly in Israel's case).

A big difference. A moderate Republican has values, usually. Chafee probably didn't, Specter didn't for sure but most do. You just don't agree with them. Those states (CT, DE, CA, ME, NY, and ILL). I don't expect states to elect people that are outside of that state's mainstream of political views. But if I have to choose between a far left Dem and somewhat liberal Moderate Republican. I want that Republican. I just don't expect him to vote on all that is brought forward. But he will get my party in controll of the committees and thus put my legislation on the floor. Even if they don't vote for it, by being their they unlock the votes of Lee, DeMint, Coburn etc because they can vote on Conservative legsilation not what Harry Reid or Chucky Cheese Schumer feels like putting up. That is the value in choosing a moderate Republican who can win over an unelectable Conservative and in this case a nutcase. It doesn't surrender my values, it strategically advances them by empower the Senators that are Conservatives from Al, NC, GA, WY, AK, UT, ID, KS, MO, OH, etc.

Now compare that to Trent Lott who for years claimed to be a Conservative, and Bill Frist who ran in 1994 as a Southern Conservative from states like MS and TN, that got into office running as conservatives in conservative states and as leaders brought us Amnesty, and pork. There are some Moderate Republicans with good scores on Immigration while "Conservatives" like Lott and Frist had D's and F's. CHRIS SHAYS, JIM GREENWORD, and even MIKE CASTLE  had B's from Americans for Better Immigration, higher then JD Hayworth's score actually. Sam Brownback, has a horrible Score on immigration, yet is considered by most as a Conservative. We were not betrayed by the Moderates, we were betrayed by the leadership. If you had reasonable and practical expectations of the Moderate Republicans beyond their primary use as warm bodies to get Republicans in control, then you would not regard their acts as "treason". They didn't betray sh**t. They are as they have always been. Most of the leadership that failed us were self-described Conservatives like Bush, Hastert, Delay, Lott and Frist. I also like Castle, Simmons, and Campbell as individual's as well. All of them had attractive qualities on a personal level. And while that may not advance anything on its own, it certainly would kill the Senate to have some more humans in there and few less robots for the camera.

If I were NRSC chair, I would have not only dropped support for candidacy but publically declared her unfitness for office. Thats why I am not NRSC Chair. You don't spend money on lost causes. The NRSC dropped support for Schafer in 2008. I really liked Schafer. But I didn't blame the NRSC, they did what they thought necessary to mediate loses and CO had become a lost cause at that point. I blamed the cycle. Here I would blame O'Donnell.

Grayson was not McConnell's clone. He was picked because he had connections to Jim Bunning and was thought to be the only one who could unite the KY GOP and not run into what McConnell did in 2008, by motivating the Conservative base. They wanted to remove Bunning but replace him with someone he knew and was "supposed" to support.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Here is another good example. "Rino" Charlie Bass joined with Jeff Flake in early 2006 in an attempt to oust the GOP leadership in the House. Blunt, Boehner, Hastert, and all of Delay's people. I wouldn't call that treason, but an attempt to restore sanity after our real traitors had run us into the ground.

Continue blaming moderates for the out touch leadership. You are going after the wrong people.

[Dan the Roman]

Guinta is performing quite poorly. Reinforces what i have heard about him running a bad campaign.

[Lief 🗽]

What a nice present to wake up to!

[Associate Justice PiT]

     NH-1 called for Guinta. Now we just need a call for NH-Sen & we are done here.