2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[SvenssonRS]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

Right so America loses a valuable voice in the senate that has actually worked to solve important issues such as giving health care coverage to uninsured children and putting us on a path to energy independence, and will likely be replaced by a hyper partisan Palin clone that will be unwilling to get anything done the last two years of Obama's term. Sorry sounds like the country will be in a worse off place unless Murkowski endorses McAdams, runs a write-in, or meets with the Libertarians and agrees to make concessions to them if she is their nominee. This isn't turning out to be another 1994. In 1994 Moderates, Neo-Cons, Paleo-Cons, and Libertarian Conservatives actually worked together to accomplish a common goal of ousting Democratic control of congress. The Republicans are plagued by infighting, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, etc., that is severely compromising their chances this fall.

I find the idea that the Republicans are failing a bit hard to believe, Red, I'm sorry. Have you paid attention to polling in the last three months? It's almost a straight flood of blue numbers. It's a well done thing that the Tea Party is winning only in the states where they can actually win a general election, isn't it? Where have they won this year? Utah, Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, some assorted house districts in which they can easily win anyway...why are you even complaining about that? The only reason they they even exist in New York is because that state's GOP has been effectively KIA for years now, and I suspect it is going to remain that way for a long time.

Honestly, I think you're seeing a different Murkowski to the one I am. She was a consistent warmonger, was pathetically weak on the disaster of an HCR bill, had terrible environmental policies...how are we losing a good voice in the Senate? Honestly, tell me how? Miller, at least, wants us out of the joke-frigging-tastic wars we're in. I'd call that one hell of an improvement.

[redcommander]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

Right so America loses a valuable voice in the senate that has actually worked to solve important issues such as giving health care coverage to uninsured children and putting us on a path to energy independence, and will likely be replaced by a hyper partisan Palin clone that will be unwilling to get anything done the last two years of Obama's term. Sorry sounds like the country will be in a worse off place unless Murkowski endorses McAdams, runs a write-in, or meets with the Libertarians and agrees to make concessions to them if she is their nominee. This isn't turning out to be another 1994. In 1994 Moderates, Neo-Cons, Paleo-Cons, and Libertarian Conservatives actually worked together to accomplish a common goal of ousting Democratic control of congress. The Republicans are plagued by infighting, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, etc., that is severely compromising their chances this fall.

I find the idea that the Republicans are failing a bit hard to believe, Red, I'm sorry. Have you paid attention to polling in the last three months? It's almost a straight flood of blue numbers. It's a well done thing that the Tea Party is winning only in the states where they can actually win a general election, isn't it? Where have they won this year? Utah, Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, some assorted house districts in which they can easily win anyway...why are you even complaining about that? The only reason they they even exist in New York is because that state's GOP has been effectively KIA for years now, and I suspect it is going to remain that way for a long time.

Honestly, I think you're seeing a different Murkowski to the one I am. She was a consistent warmonger, was pathetically weak on the disaster of an HCR bill, had terrible environmental policies...how are we losing a good voice in the Senate? Honestly, tell me how? Miller, at least, wants us out of the joke-frigging-tastic wars we're in. I'd call that one hell of an improvement.

Republicans should have been stronger on creating their own viable healthcare bill, and you didn't answer my question about O'Donnell challenging Castle.

[SvenssonRS]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

Right so America loses a valuable voice in the senate that has actually worked to solve important issues such as giving health care coverage to uninsured children and putting us on a path to energy independence, and will likely be replaced by a hyper partisan Palin clone that will be unwilling to get anything done the last two years of Obama's term. Sorry sounds like the country will be in a worse off place unless Murkowski endorses McAdams, runs a write-in, or meets with the Libertarians and agrees to make concessions to them if she is their nominee. This isn't turning out to be another 1994. In 1994 Moderates, Neo-Cons, Paleo-Cons, and Libertarian Conservatives actually worked together to accomplish a common goal of ousting Democratic control of congress. The Republicans are plagued by infighting, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, etc., that is severely compromising their chances this fall.

I find the idea that the Republicans are failing a bit hard to believe, Red, I'm sorry. Have you paid attention to polling in the last three months? It's almost a straight flood of blue numbers. It's a well done thing that the Tea Party is winning only in the states where they can actually win a general election, isn't it? Where have they won this year? Utah, Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, some assorted house districts in which they can easily win anyway...why are you even complaining about that? The only reason they they even exist in New York is because that state's GOP has been effectively KIA for years now, and I suspect it is going to remain that way for a long time.

Honestly, I think you're seeing a different Murkowski to the one I am. She was a consistent warmonger, was pathetically weak on the disaster of an HCR bill, had terrible environmental policies...how are we losing a good voice in the Senate? Honestly, tell me how? Miller, at least, wants us out of the joke-frigging-tastic wars we're in. I'd call that one hell of an improvement.

Republicans should have been stronger on creating their own viable healthcare bill, and you didn't answer my question about O'Donnell challenging Castle.

Because it held no water in this argument. There's a difference between crazies like O'Donnell and Angle and respectable men like Miller.

Also, Red? Paul Ryan's roadmap.

[cinyc]

Is my impression right, that what sank Murk was not so much the size of the swing HD by HD from what went before vis a vis the this absentee count, but the turnout differentials, with areas Miller is relatively strong in, having a much higher absentee turnout?  If so, that is relatively unusual, that late ballot turnout differentials were the key variable.

Well, the precinct pdfs are up.  Based on that, we know this:

Unless I made a cut-and-paste mistake (unlikely, since everything but one thing adds up), today's 11,960 votes can be broken down as follows:

-9,591 Absentees  

They broke 51-49 Murkowski.  Only the bush districts 37-40 are missing an absentee count.  Excluding the bush districts (including HD 6 from both the absentee and election day count, for simplicity), Miller won the election day tally in the reporting districts 52-48.  Murkowski performed 3 points better in the absentee than the election day precinct+early vote count, but 2 points worse than the election day early vote count - a margin she needed to keep up to win.  In particular, she didn't improve much on her election day percentages in the Southeast or Kenai, which did her in.

As a percentage of the election day precinct+early vote count, absentees were above average (10.3%)  in Kenai (18.6%) and the Mat-Su (10.6%).  They were about average in the Southeast and Anchorage (10.0%), and way below average in Fairbanks (7.53%).

-1,356 Question votes.  

They broke 57-43 Miller.  They are largely from Miller-friendly areas (SOME Fairbanks HDs, SOME Kenai HDs) plus Southeast Alaska.  Miller took 57% of the Question votes - but won only 53% of the election day precinct+early vote count in the reporting HDs  - a 4 point swing to Miller, largely due to Fairbanks.

-407 new Early votes.

These were probably cast on election day.  They also broke 57-43 Miller.  A direct comparison is difficult because not every HD has ready access to early voting.  But Miller significantly ourperformed his early vote percent reported on election day (46-54) AND the overall election day precinct+early vote for the regions that have some meaningful early voting (51% or 52% Miller, depending on what you exclude).  Almost half of these were from the Mat-Su, a Miller stronghold (and way out of proportion with the Mat-Su's usual statewide percentage).

-327 votes from the missing Anchorage precinct.

These were split 176-151 Murkowski, in line with the rest of HD 30.

-279 votes unaccounted for by me.

I have no idea from whence these additional votes came (recanvass? foul up on my spreadsheet?), but they broke 60-40 Murkowski.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

Right so America loses a valuable voice in the senate that has actually worked to solve important issues such as giving health care coverage to uninsured children and putting us on a path to energy independence, and will likely be replaced by a hyper partisan Palin clone that will be unwilling to get anything done the last two years of Obama's term. Sorry sounds like the country will be in a worse off place unless Murkowski endorses McAdams, runs a write-in, or meets with the Libertarians and agrees to make concessions to them if she is their nominee. This isn't turning out to be another 1994. In 1994 Moderates, Neo-Cons, Paleo-Cons, and Libertarian Conservatives actually worked together to accomplish a common goal of ousting Democratic control of congress. The Republicans are plagued by infighting, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, etc., that is severely compromising their chances this fall.

I find the idea that the Republicans are failing a bit hard to believe, Red, I'm sorry. Have you paid attention to polling in the last three months? It's almost a straight flood of blue numbers. It's a well done thing that the Tea Party is winning only in the states where they can actually win a general election, isn't it? Where have they won this year? Utah, Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, some assorted house districts in which they can easily win anyway...why are you even complaining about that? The only reason they they even exist in New York is because that state's GOP has been effectively KIA for years now, and I suspect it is going to remain that way for a long time.

Honestly, I think you're seeing a different Murkowski to the one I am. She was a consistent warmonger, was pathetically weak on the disaster of an HCR bill, had terrible environmental policies...how are we losing a good voice in the Senate? Honestly, tell me how? Miller, at least, wants us out of the joke-frigging-tastic wars we're in. I'd call that one hell of an improvement.

Republicans should have been stronger on creating their own viable healthcare bill, and you didn't answer my question about O'Donnell challenging Castle.

Delaware is a different state, a blue state. And O'Donnell is a nutcase.

And Castle isn't that bad on a lot of issues, certainly not bad enough on the mix of issues I care about.

[Meeker]

Final Washington primary numbers can be found over here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Updated OP with upcoming primary info for the last time.

[Meeker]

The New York Times is backing one of Rangel's primary challengers, Joyce Johnson. They also recommend keeping Carolyn Maloney.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/04/opinion/04sat1.html?ref=opinion

[Torie]

The New York Times is backing one of Rangel's primary challengers, Joyce Johnson. They also recommend keeping Carolyn Maloney.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/04/opinion/04sat1.html?ref=opinion

I wonder how many voters change their vote based on what the NY Times thinks. When it comes to the LA Times, I think the answer is asymptotically close to zero.

[Lief 🗽]

The New York Times is backing one of Rangel's primary challengers, Joyce Johnson. They also recommend keeping Carolyn Maloney.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/04/opinion/04sat1.html?ref=opinion

I wonder how many voters change their vote based on what the NY Times thinks. When it comes to the LA Times, I think the answer is asymptotically close to zero.

Really? I think newspaper endorsements are most important in low turnout, low information elections like primaries. Maybe not when one of the candidates is an important Congressman, but I generally base at least some of my primary vote on who my newspaper of choice endorsed, and I'm probably an above average informed voter.

[Torie]

The New York Times is backing one of Rangel's primary challengers, Joyce Johnson. They also recommend keeping Carolyn Maloney.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/04/opinion/04sat1.html?ref=opinion

I wonder how many voters change their vote based on what the NY Times thinks. When it comes to the LA Times, I think the answer is asymptotically close to zero.

Really? I think newspaper endorsements are most important in low turnout, low information elections like primaries. Maybe not when one of the candidates is an important Congressman, but I generally base at least some of my primary vote on who my newspaper of choice endorsed, and I'm probably an above average informed voter.

Well for down ballot races, maybe, and in particular for judges. But for Governor or federal offices?  When it comes to school board races, I find out who the teachers' union is supporting, and vote against those candidates. So outside endorsements can matter, I admit.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

She's run twice before, for Assembly and City Council. Maybe next she'll run for Senator.

I'd vote for Tasini (admittedly, I usually favor the candidate willing to put gay rights prominently on their issues page), but he's probably too white to win a primary in NY-15.

[cinyc]

She's run twice before, for Assembly and City Council. Maybe next she'll run for Senator.

I'd vote for Tasini (admittedly, I usually favor the candidate willing to put gay rights prominently on their issues page), but he's probably too white to win a primary in NY-15.

Harlem is changing.  NY-15 is much more white than it used to be.  In a crowded primary, a white could win.

But Rangel will probably pull it out.  If he doesn't, I hope he loses to Adam Clayton Powell IV just for the irony of it all.  The circle will have become complete.

[cinyc]

Alaska updated their numbers today.  If I'm not mistaken, this should be the final unofficial tally:

Miller, Joe              REP    55847    50.92%
Murkowski, Lisa    REP    53834    49.08%

Miller +2,013

The votes counted after election day favored Miller, not Murkowski.  She was right to concede.

Someone asked upthread why there was such a dropoff from the number of people who voted in the Democratic Governor's Race versus the Democratic US Senate race.  No doubt this was in part due to candidates with better name recognition running for Governor.  But one thing we all overlooked after election day is that there was an AIP candidate running in the combined Democratic-Libertarian-AIP Governor's primary, but not the Senate primary.  Perhaps many AIP members who took that ballot decided to vote for their Gubernatorial candidate and abstain from voting for anyone for Senate.  That could have been worth about 4,000 votes.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What is expected to happen in NY-01, NY-13, and NY-23 GOP primaries?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Vermont recount confirmed Shumlin's win. He increased his margin by 6 votes. It was also one of the most genteel recounts ever (in true Vermont fashion); Shumlin and Racine spent the last couple weeks campaigning together across the state.

[xavier110]

What is expected to happen in NY-01?

I'm in NY-01, and it's a complete toss-up.

Altschuler has tons of money, but he has taken a beating from both Demos & Cox for being a Green Party voter, a carpetbagger, and an outsourcer. Cox has the party machine backing him (thanks dad!); some of his volunteers visited my parents earlier this week. Demos (my father's choice) is the one with actual ties to the district, and he's gained a lot of momentum over the past week, earning endorsements from Limbaugh and National Review.

Altschuler already has the Conservative line, although Cox is running a write-in campaign in the Conservative primary. It would be rather disastrous if the GOP candidate were not the recipient of the Conservative line.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A couple polls of next week's primaries...

In New York, Siena has Lazio in a tie with Paladino, ahead by only 1 point (43-42). Upstate Republicans favor Paladino, while Lazio is ahead with downstate Republicans.

Schneiderman and Rice are the top two Dems for Attorney General, at 25-23 respectively. Sean Coffey is a distant third with 13%.

For Senate, Joseph DioGuardi is leading with 29%, to 14% for Malpass and 11% for Blakeman. Kirsten Gillibrand is crushing Gail Goode, unsurprisingly, by a 63-12 margin. In the Republican primary for Schumer's seat, Jay Townsend leads Gary Berntsen 25-17.

In Hawaii (insert standard disclaimer about Hawaii polling here), Abercrombie is beating Hanneman 48-31.

[Tender Branson]

The Vermont recount confirmed Shumlin's win. He increased his margin by 6 votes. It was also one of the most genteel recounts ever (in true Vermont fashion); Shumlin and Racine spent the last couple weeks campaigning together across the state.

Time for a General Election poll there then.

(Currently I'd rate it as "Lean GOP")

[Hash]

(Currently I'd rate it as "Lean GOP")

From the week I was there, Dubie was clearly owning in the sign war and on the airwaves. Even in uber-Democratic Lamoille and Chittenden Counties.

He seems to be going on a low-taxes, create-jobs moderate line, unlike Welch's opponent for the House.

[tpfkaw]

I think New York Republicans should be hoping at this point that the gubernatorial candidates split the Republican and Conservative ballot lines, then that the Conservative candidate comes in second, meaning that the NY Conservative Party would replace the NYGOP as a "major party."

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think New York Republicans should be hoping at this point that the gubernatorial candidates split the Republican and Conservative ballot lines, then that the Conservative candidate comes in second, meaning that the NY Conservative Party would replace the NYGOP as a "major party."

which almost happened to the Democrats in 2002

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP teases everyone with a tweet about their NH/DE polls:

"Looking like a better chance of an upset in Delaware than New Hampshire"

[redcommander]

PPP teases everyone with a tweet about their NH/DE polls:

"Looking like a better chance of an upset in Delaware than New Hampshire"

Uh oh that means O'Donnell probably has momentum now.

[Iosif]

Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint and the NRA are to be saluted.