2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Dan the Roman]

Anyone else note the nearly 10,000 vote gap between the Democratic primary for Governor and Senate in terms of votes cast? I know people tend to leave uncontested races blank, but thats nearly a 25% abstention rate on top of whatever the original one was.

[cinyc]

If there are 2,200 Republican primary votes remaining to be counted tonight, Murkowski would need 77.5% to pull even today.  That's not going to happen.

There will be some missing HDs, though - 2 in the SE (Petersburg/Wrangell/Sitka), 35 on Kenai, 36 on Kodiak and the 4 bush districts counted by Nome (37-40).  35 and 36 were marginal Miller.  2 was mildly Murkowski.  The 4 bush districts were heavily Murkowski.

There probably were a lot more independents voting in the Democratic primary than usual in 2 since the Sitka mayor was on the Democratic ballot.  There rarely are many Republican absentees from the bush.  

[cinyc]

Anyone else note the nearly 10,000 vote gap between the Democratic primary for Governor and Senate in terms of votes cast? I know people tend to leave uncontested races blank, but thats nearly a 25% abstention rate on top of whatever the original one was.

The Democratic Governor's race was between two famous Anchorageites.  The Democratic Senator's race was chock full of nobodies.

[cinyc]

ADN reports the last batch of votes were absentees from "Southeast Alaska, the Kenai Peninsula and Fairbanks."  The paper reports that about 3,000 more votes are expected to be counted today from Southeast Alaska, the Kenai Peninsula and the Fairbanks area.

[cinyc]

Best I can tell, that last dump also included at least the missing HD 2 in the Southeast and HD 35 on the Kenai Peninsula.  We're seemingly only missing votes from HD 36 in the Southeast/Kenai elections region.

[Sam Spade]

Best I can tell, that last dump also included at least the missing HD 2 in the Southeast and HD 35 on the Kenai Peninsula.  We're seemingly only missing votes from HD 36 in the Southeast/Kenai elections region.

There had to be at least 2200 votes in the Dem primary for today - probably closer to 2500 given blanks?

[Smash255]

Best I can tell, that last dump also included at least the missing HD 2 in the Southeast and HD 35 on the Kenai Peninsula.  We're seemingly only missing votes from HD 36 in the Southeast/Kenai elections region.

What about 1,3,5?  The ones from there earlier were the questioned ballots, not the Absentees.

[Smash255]

Best I can tell, that last dump also included at least the missing HD 2 in the Southeast and HD 35 on the Kenai Peninsula.  We're seemingly only missing votes from HD 36 in the Southeast/Kenai elections region.

There had to be at least 2200 votes in the Dem primary for today - probably closer to 2500 given blanks?

2,325 for the Senate race, including blanks 3,155.   On the GOP side its exactly 9,000 in the Senate race, 9,088 including blanks

[cinyc]

Best I can tell, that last dump also included at least the missing HD 2 in the Southeast and HD 35 on the Kenai Peninsula.  We're seemingly only missing votes from HD 36 in the Southeast/Kenai elections region.

There had to be at least 2200 votes in the Dem primary for today - probably closer to 2500 given blanks?

There were an additional 2,996 votes for a candidate in the Democratic Governor's race and 2,325 in the Democratic Senate race, based on the last dump and final election day tally.  Some of those votes were from the missing Anchorage precinct.

[cinyc]

Best I can tell, that last dump also included at least the missing HD 2 in the Southeast and HD 35 on the Kenai Peninsula.  We're seemingly only missing votes from HD 36 in the Southeast/Kenai elections region.

What about 1,3,5?  The ones from there earlier were the questioned ballots, not the Absentees.

I can't tell you because I didn't copy down the numbers in the House primaries from any of the dumps today.  I can only tell you that the number of votes in the HD 2 and 35 House primaries matched election day after the first SE/Kenai dump, but not the latest dump.  So some of the HD 2 and 35 vote finally came in.

The House primary tallies for HDs 36-40 (Kodiak + Bush) haven't budged since election day, suggesting those HDs haven't reported absentees or questioned ballots today.

[Sam Spade]

Murkowski's done imo.  Miller gained 259 votes in the last batch of roughly 2,000.

[cinyc]

Murkowski's done imo.  Miller gained 259 votes in the last batch of roughly 2,000.

Yup.  Miller took about 57% of that 1,865 votes - wherever they're from.

Time for her to concede.  The Bush isn't going to save her.

[Smash255]

Murkowski's done imo.  Miller gained 259 votes in the last batch of roughly 2,000.

Yup.  Miller took about 57% of that 1,865 votes - wherever they're from.

Time for her to concede.  The Bush isn't going to save her.

Still looking but seems like 33 and 36, also the 6th.  A handful of others as well, though primarily 6th, 33rd and 36th

[cinyc]

If my math is right, today's count so far:
Milller         5333  (49%)
Murkowski 5532  (51%)

Murkowski +199

[cinyc]

Murkowski's done imo.  Miller gained 259 votes in the last batch of roughly 2,000.

Yup.  Miller took about 57% of that 1,865 votes - wherever they're from.

Time for her to concede.  The Bush isn't going to save her.

Still looking but seems like 33 and 36

ADN says it was 2,760 ballots from Fairbanks, SE and Kenai.  They also say some Kenai absentees remain to be counted - and nothing from the Southeast.

Murkowski's done.  She didn't get a big enough bump from the Southeast.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

[cinyc]

According to Politico, Murkowski will hold press conference in the next few minutes (6PM Alaska/10PM Eastern).

Rumor is she will concede.  We'll see.

[tpfkaw]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

[redcommander]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

[Smash255]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

True, he is a far right bat s*** crazy extremist.

[Torie]

You are pretty passionate about your problems with the Tea Party Redcommander. I disdain them too, but not nearly with your intensity. I think you have lapped me. In any event, Miller is a highly intelligent man.  He doesn't bother me, in the same way a Rand Paul does.

And I have seen nothing that suggests to me that Miller is a nutter. But I don't know everything he has said. He did come out of nowhere. But if there were some really juicy stuff, you think the press would have Angled or Randed him.

[Sam Spade]

You are pretty passionate about your problems with the Tea Party Redcommander. I disdain them too, but not nearly with your intensity. I think you have lapped me. In any event, Miller is a highly intelligent man.  He doesn't bother me, in the same way a Rand Paul does.

And I have seen nothing that suggest to me that Miller is a nutter. But I don't know everything he has said. He did come out of nowhere. But if there were some really juicy stuff, you think the press would have Angled or Randed him.

I don't think the press took him seriously.  Of course, it doesn't really matter now.

[cinyc]

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning.

The handwriting is on the wall.  If there are 9,000 votes left to count and 75% are Republican, she'd need to win them 60-40.  She won the almost 11,000 Republican votes counted so far today by only 51-49.

Granted, some of whats out is from the bush HDs that she won big, but they are likely to be few (500, if she's lucky).  The rest are questioned votes from Anchorage and the Mat-Su, plus whatever trickles in this week.  The questioned votes in SE/Kenai pretty much followed the precinct vote.    I don't see her getting 60% of what's out.  And if she concedes, nor does she.

[Torie]

According to Politico, Murkowski will hold press conference in the next few minutes (6PM Alaska/10PM Eastern).

Rumor is she will concede.  We'll see.

Is my impression right, that what sank Murk was not so much the size of the swing HD by HD from what went before vis a vis the this absentee count, but the turnout differentials, with areas Miller is relatively strong in, having a much higher absentee turnout?  If so, that is relatively unusual, that late ballot turnout differentials were the key variable.

[Torie]

You are pretty passionate about your problems with the Tea Party Redcommander. I disdain them too, but not nearly with your intensity. I think you have lapped me. In any event, Miller is a highly intelligent man.  He doesn't bother me, in the same way a Rand Paul does.

And I have seen nothing that suggest to me that Miller is a nutter. But I don't know everything he has said. He did come out of nowhere. But if there were some really juicy stuff, you think the press would have Angled or Randed him.

I don't think the press took him seriously.  Of course, it doesn't really matter now.

Well some folks are suggesting that he is a nutter. What is it based on?