2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

Will all the absentees be counted today?

No.  Most absentees today.  Most questioned ballots on Friday.  Everything that's left - next week.

Yes, Sam is correct - those came from South Anchorage, (presumably HDs 27-32).  Those Anchorage HDs went about 55-45 Murkowski on election day.  She performed about 5.5 points better in today's absentee votes.  The absentees were an anemic 4.1% of the election day total, though.  Not many absentees there.  They voted precinct and early.

Note that one of the dumps had to be affected by the "found" votes in the missing Anchorage precinct.  That precinct was in HD-30, but that doesn't mean the elections officials included it in this update.

[cinyc]

Hard to figure.  Of course, turnout in 27 to 32 was pretty high to begin with - highest in the state to begin with.  21 to 26 are Dem-leaning areas.  33 and 34 are hyper-GOP suburbs.  35 and 36 are more working-class areas, but the only areas Miller won in Anchorage in the first place.

HDs 33-35 are on the Kenai Peninsula, not Anchorage.  Unlike the Mat-Su, most of the population is pretty far from Anchorage (and the parts of the Kenai Peninsula that are closer to Anchorage are in HD 32, anyway).  HD 35 includes hippie-ish Homer - far from Anchorage.  HD 36 is Kodiak Island and environs. 

[Sam Spade]

Hard to figure.  Of course, turnout in 27 to 32 was pretty high to begin with - highest in the state to begin with.  21 to 26 are Dem-leaning areas.  33 and 34 are hyper-GOP suburbs.  35 and 36 are more working-class areas, but the only areas Miller won in Anchorage in the first place.

HDs 33-35 are on the Kenai Peninsula, not Anchorage.  Unlike the Mat-Su, most of the population is pretty far from Anchorage (and the parts of the Kenai Peninsula that are closer to Anchorage are in HD 32, anyway).  HD 35 includes hippie-ish Homer - far from Anchorage.  HD 36 is Kodiak Island and environs. 

Ya, you're right.  Anyway, not many absentees.

[cinyc]

ADN reports there are about 3,000 questioned votes from Anchorage and 1,200 from the Mat-Su to be counted (or, one assumes, rejected) on Friday.  I also assume not all questioned votes were cast in the Republican primary, especially in Anchorage.

[Sam Spade]

ADN reports there are about 3,000 questioned votes from Anchorage and 1,200 from the Mat-Su to be counted (or, one assumes, rejected) on Friday.  I also assume not all questioned votes were cast in the Republican primary, especially in Anchorage.

Questioned votes always tend to lean pro-Dem, pro-incumbent.  Depends on where they are w/r/t Anchorage.  If in 21-26, they'll definitely have a strong Dem lean.

Question - does this mean all Anchorage/Mat-su absentees are counted (at least in their possession)?

[cinyc]

ADN reports there are about 3,000 questioned votes from Anchorage and 1,200 from the Mat-Su to be counted (or, one assumes, rejected) on Friday.  I also assume not all questioned votes were cast in the Republican primary, especially in Anchorage.

Questioned votes always tend to lean pro-Dem, pro-incumbent.  Depends on where they are w/r/t Anchorage.  If in 21-26, they'll definitely have a strong Dem lean.

Question - does this mean all Anchorage/Mat-su absentees are counted (at least in their possession)?

No and no.  I think those areas are done for the day, though.  The ADN reported that "most" Mat-Su absentees were counted and there were "a small number" of Anchorage absentees remaining to be counted next week.  Plus, absentees can still trickle in this week.  Military absentees have a slightly longer deadline.

FWIW, the questioned votes only broke slightly more toward incumbents Young (by less than .15 points) and Stevens (by 1.25 points) than the precinct vote in the 2008 Republican primary.   Murkowski actually did about 4 points worse in the questioned votes than the precinct percent in her 2004 primary.  There were a little over 5,300 questioned Republican votes in 2008 and 3,600 in 2004.

[cinyc]

From the ADN of what's left to be counted today:

Juneau region absentees: roughly 2,000 from Southeast and 2,300 or so from the Kenai.
Fairbanks region:  1,768 absentees.

Questioned ballots outstanding (likely counted Friday, based on prior info, but ADN says Fairbanks and Southeast-Kenai will count them today):
Southeast: 1,013
Fairbanks: 996
Mat-Su: about 1,200
Anchorage: about 3,000
Kenai: 502

Bush (HDs 37-40): Not specified.

There's also some confusion from the Miller campaign via a conservative blogger about what was counted in the Mat-Su today, early and questioned votes or absentees - which contradicts the ADN.

[cinyc]

The Juneau-Kenai dump will be key.  If Murkowski doesn't win it by a fairly large margin, it's over.    Big Government.com is reporting that Miller will prevail.

Edited to add: Southeast+Kenai was marginal in the total vote so far - 50.4% Miller, 49.6% Murkowski.  The two regions were divergent, with the Southeast backing Murkowski and Kenai Miller.

[Sam Spade]

We just got some from HDs 1, 3-5 and maybe somewhere else? (800 votes)

No change basically. (Murkowski gained 2 votes)

[cinyc]

We just got some from HDs 1, 3-5 and maybe somewhere else? (800 votes)

No change basically. (Murkowski gained 2 votes)

Well, if it's HDs 1, 3-5, Murkowski's toast.  She needs to do much better there.  How can you tell from whence they came?  Comparing House votes - (that's what I should be doing)?

[cinyc]

We just got some from HDs 1, 3-5 and maybe somewhere else? (800 votes)

No change basically. (Murkowski gained 2 votes)

Based on the House primaries with additional votes, it looks like 33 and 34 may have been in that count, too.

[Sam Spade]

We just got some from HDs 1, 3-5 and maybe somewhere else? (800 votes)

No change basically. (Murkowski gained 2 votes)

Well, if it's HDs 1, 3-5, Murkowski's toast.  She needs to do much better there.  How can you tell from whence they came?  Comparing House votes - (that's what I should be doing)?

Higher numbers than on the cards in the HDs.

[Smash255]

We just got some from HDs 1, 3-5 and maybe somewhere else? (800 votes)

No change basically. (Murkowski gained 2 votes)

Based on the House primaries with additional votes, it looks like 33 and 34 may have been in that count, too.

Those were the questioned ballots according to the ADN

[cinyc]

If that was HDs 1, 3-5 and 33-34, the Murkowski swing was very small - less than a point.  It's only 5.3% of the election day vote, though.

This could be that area's questioned vote.

[cinyc]

We just got some from HDs 1, 3-5 and maybe somewhere else? (800 votes)

No change basically. (Murkowski gained 2 votes)

Based on the House primaries with additional votes, it looks like 33 and 34 may have been in that count, too.

Those were the questioned ballots according to the ADN

Thanks.  

That's the next important piece of the puzzle for areas that don't report questioned votes today (Anchorage and the Mat-Su reportedly won't).  The HD 1, 3-5, and 33-34 questioned votes aren't far off from their election day total.  That would likely sink Murkowski.

[tpfkaw]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

[cinyc]

Another 2,196 votes in:

Miller, Joe    REP    51298    50.60%
Murkowski, Lisa    REP    50088    49.40%

Miller lost 82 votes.  (52-48 Murkowski)

Now, to figure out where from...

Edit:  Looks like it might be Fairbanks (7-12) plus bush-lite district 6.

IF it's Fairbanks, Miller ran about 8 points worse than election day, and these votes were 13% of the total Republican votes cast on election day.

IF it's the absentees from SE/Kenai, it's undoubtedly over.

[Sam Spade]

That was a pretty large dump - over 2,000 right?

[cinyc]

That was a pretty large dump - over 2,000 right?

2,196. 

The Fairbanks HD primary votes are now higher than on election day night, which makes me think this was from there - though I hadn't checked them earlier.

[tpfkaw]

I'm unfamiliar with the particulars of Alaskan electoral geography.  Who are we favoring to win now?

[cinyc]

I'm unfamiliar with the particulars of Alaskan electoral geography.  Who are we favoring to win now?

Miller.

If those were the Fairbanks absentees, Murkowski needs to win the only large group of absentees outstanding - SE/Kenai by 70-30 to pull even tonight.  That area was marginal on election day - almost 50-50 (SE - for Murkowski; Kenai for Miller).   I don't think that's going to happen.

Rumor has it Murkowski will concede tonight.

[Sam Spade]

So far today Murkowski 4,729 (from 45,359 to 50,088), Miller 4,271 (47,027 to 51,298). 

Exactly 9,000 more ballots.  Murkowski ahead 52.54% to 47.46%.

How much more do you think is left today because not all of the roughly 25,000 outstanding are GOP obviously.

[Smash255]

I'm unfamiliar with the particulars of Alaskan electoral geography.  Who are we favoring to win now?

I think Miller will still win (though its likely going to get a bit closer).  The fact he lost ground with the Fairbanks dump is a bad thing for him.  A telling sign will be Murkowski's margin among the absentees in the SE.  Also the amount of the questioned ballots in Anchorage that are Democratic will be important.

[Smash255]

So far today Murkowski 4,729 (from 45,359 to 50,088), Miller 4,271 (47,027 to 51,298).  

Exactly 9,000 more ballots.  Murkowski ahead 52.54% to 47.46%.

How much more do you think is left today because not all of the roughly 25,000 outstanding are GOP obviously.

I would say the 2,000 absentees from Juneau, and the 2,300 from the Kenai are left for today, some of those obviously being GOP.

[cinyc]

So far today Murkowski 4,729 (from 45,359 to 50,088), Miller 4,271 (47,027 to 51,298).  

Exactly 9,000 more ballots.  Murkowski ahead 52.54% to 47.46%.

How much more do you think is left today because not all of the roughly 25,000 outstanding are GOP obviously.

About 16,000 votes were to be counted today.  My guess is just the SE/Kenai absentees are left to count today (and perhaps the Fairbanks questioned).   There should be about 4,300 SE/Kenai absentees in both parties.  ADN says the SE/Kenai questioned votes broke about evenly between Republicans and Democrats.  So figure another 2,200 or so votes, plus 1,000 or so Fairbanks questioned if they weren't included in this dump - perhaps 750 of those Republican.  So 2,200-3,000.

Edited to add: if the most recent dump was from Fairbanks, they had to be absentee+questioned, since there were less than 1,800 Fairbanks absentees.  So 2,200 or thereabouts.