2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

If there's a uniform swing of 4 percent among the absentees, Miller holds on to his victory by a couple hundred votes.

Yeah, we really need to measure the swing in Miller's strongholds, though.  That will ultimately decide if he wins.

[Sam Spade]

If there's a uniform swing of 4 percent among the absentees, Miller holds on to his victory by a couple hundred votes.

Also depends on how many votes come from where.

[cinyc]

If there's a uniform swing of 4 percent among the absentees, Miller holds on to his victory by a couple hundred votes.

Also depends on how many votes come from where.

True.  I'd expect more absentees from the Kenai Peninsula, Southeast outside of Juneau and (mildly) the Bush, where there isn't any reasonable way to early vote unless you happen to live in Juneau or Nome.  Kenai went to Miller, the other two areas to Murkowski.


I also expect more absentees from the two military-heavy HDs, 12 and 18.  18 came in this dump, and didn't seem to help Miller much.

[Sam Spade]

When do we get more ballot?

[cinyc]

When do we get more ballot?

Periodically throughout the day, according to the Alaska Elections website.

FWIW, Alaska provides results in html, pdf and text format.   The html version of their results seems to be the most up-to-date.  The text/CSV and pdf versions are a bit behind the HTML tally, for whatever reason.  The text/CSV version was also a bit behind on elections night, too.

[tpfkaw]

2895 more votes have come in - Miller is leading by 1440, 49566 to 48106.

[cinyc]

Rumor is Fairbanks will report at 1PM Alaska time (5PM Eastern/2PM Pacific).

Miller won Fairbanks with around 57% of the election day vote (including earlies).  He only took 51% of the early votes.  In the Anchorage House Districts that reported, HDs 17-26, Miller won 47% of the overall election day vote, but only took 40% of the early votes.

So Murkowski ran 3 points behind her early vote tally in HDs 17-26.

[cinyc]

2895 more votes have come in - Miller is leading by 1440, 49566 to 48106.

So Miller won that batch 52-48%, wherever it came from.

[cinyc]

According to the ADN, those votes came from precincts 13 through 16 in the Mat Su.  Miller won the Mat-Su with 62% of the vote.  He won 59% of the early vote.  That's not good news for Miller at all - running 10 points down in his strongholds.  

As for turnout, the HD-17-26 votes were about 13% of the election day total vote (including earlies) for those districts.  The HD 13-16 votes were 19% of the election day total for those districts.  So absentee and other turnout was heavier in the Mat-Su, even if Miller didn't perform quite as well there.

[redcommander]

Let's go Murkowski

[Torie]

According to the ADN, those votes came from precincts 13 through 16 in the Mat Su.  Miller won the Mat-Su with 62% of the vote.  He won 59% of the early vote.  That's not good news for Miller at all - running 10 points down in his strongholds.  

As for turnout, the HD-17-26 votes were about 13% of the election day total vote (including earlies) for those districts.  The HD 13-16 votes were 19% of the election day total for those districts.  So absentee turnout was heavier in the Mat-Su, even if Miller didn't perform quite as well there.

What are you assuming the share is, of the absentees?  25%?

Are they going to do the absentees first, and then the questioned ballots?

[Iosif]

If the Murk does pull this off, do the Libertarians bin their candidate for Miller? That'd be fun.

[cinyc]

According to the ADN, those votes came from precincts 13 through 16 in the Mat Su.  Miller won the Mat-Su with 62% of the vote.  He won 59% of the early vote.  That's not good news for Miller at all - running 10 points down in his strongholds.  

As for turnout, the HD-17-26 votes were about 13% of the election day total vote (including earlies) for those districts.  The HD 13-16 votes were 19% of the election day total for those districts.  So absentee turnout was heavier in the Mat-Su, even if Miller didn't perform quite as well there.

What are you assuming the share is, of the absentees?  25%?

Are they going to do the absentees first, and then the questioned ballots?

Well, we don't know.  For my calculation, I just divided the numbers reported today by the number of election day votes in the house districts the ADN claims the votes came from.

FWIW - projecting Miller's lost Mat-Su margin and turnout to Miller strongholds (Fairbanks/Kenai) and Miller's lost part Anchorage margin and turnout to Murkowski's strongholds (rest of Anchorage/Bush/Southeast), Murkowski would win by 206 Miller would win by 91.   Now, that's a straight line calculation that likely won't hold - but an interesting first cut.

Edited to add:  A second cut, using the actual margins of each region  + the lost Anchorage/Mat-Su margins would lead to a MILLER win by about 263.  The model assumes about 14,150 absentee and other votes - which might be a bit low.

Edited after spreadsheet audit.

[redcommander]

If the Murk does pull this off, do the Libertarians bin their candidate for Miller? That'd be fun.

Well that would be hypocritical on their part since they denied Murkowski the option.

[Brittain33]

If the Murk does pull this off, do the Libertarians bin their candidate for Miller? That'd be fun.

Well that would be hypocritical on their part since they denied Murkowski the option.

What reasoning did they give? As some people have noted, Murkowski is pretty much the opposite of a Libertarian... Miller would be closer to their philosophy. Although it's still unlikely.

[cinyc]

If the Murk does pull this off, do the Libertarians bin their candidate for Miller? That'd be fun.

Well that would be hypocritical on their part since they denied Murkowski the option.

What reasoning did they give? As some people have noted, Murkowski is pretty much the opposite of a Libertarian... Miller would be closer to their philosophy. Although it's still unlikely.

Miller's not running as a libertarian.  He said he wouldn't go third party if he lost.

[cinyc]

What are you assuming the share is, of the absentees?  25%?

Are they going to do the absentees first, and then the questioned ballots?

Based on an article I posted last week, today should just be of absentees, plus any leftover early and the missing Anchorage precinct, I assume.  Valid questioned ballots are supposed to be counted on Friday.

[cinyc]

The missing Anchorage precinct (Laurel/Dowling) went 176-151 Murkowski.

[cinyc]

Apparently, the regional elections offices are counting the absentees.  There are regional election offices in Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley (satellite), Juneau, Fairbanks and Nome.  According to a conservative blogger who's in Anchorage, Anchorage started counting at 9AM, Mat-Su 10AM, Juneau at 1PM and Faribanks is to start at 3PM.  Add 4 hours for Eastern; 1 for Pacific.  I don't know about Nome - or if they even validated the absentees (to make sure no one who cast a precinct or early vote can also vote absentee).  As of this morning, absentees in 4 HDs hadn't been vaildated, according to the Anchorage paper.  Perhaps not coincidentally, there are 4 bush HDs in Nome's district.

IIRC, the Juneau office is responsible for Southeast Alaska (HDs 1-5), and the Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak (HDs 33-36).  Anchorage is responsible for the Anchorage and Mat-Su HDs (HDs 13-32; Mat-Su's office is a satellite).  Fairbanks is responsible for HDs 6-12; Nome for HDs 37-40. I'll double check if I have time.

[cinyc]

New numbers:

Miller                49888    50.66%
Murkowski   48594    49.34%

By my math, there were 810 votes in that dump; Murkowski picked up about 60% of them to net 166.

No info on from whence the votes came - yet.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like HD 27 to 32 to me.

[Torie]

New numbers:

Miller                49888    50.66%
Murkowski   48594    49.34%

By my math, there were 810 votes in that dump; Murkowski picked up about 60% of them to net 166.

No info on from whence the votes came - yet.

Doesn't this mean about half the absentees have been counted now on the GOP side?

[redcommander]

Will all the absentees be counted today?

[Torie]

Looks like HD 27 to 32 to me.

 It looks from eyeballing it, that Murk won those in the first round by about 55-45, so that is a 5 point swing in her favor, if she is getting 60% now. But the number of absentees seems very low as compared to what was counted before, which looks like 20,000 votes or something on the GOP side, with less than 1,000 additional.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like HD 27 to 32 to me.

 It looks from eyeballing it, that Murk won those in the first round by about 55-45, so that is a 5 point swing in her favor, if she is getting 60% now. But the number of absentees seems very low as compared to what was counted before, which looks like 20,000 votes or something on the GOP side, with less than 1,000 additional.

Hard to figure.  Of course, turnout in 27 to 32 was pretty high to begin with - highest in the state to begin with.  21 to 26 are Dem-leaning areas.  33 and 34 are hyper-GOP suburbs.  35 and 36 are more working-class areas, but the only areas Miller won in Anchorage in the first place.