2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Хahar 🤔]

With this odd election system in Washington, I must say Washingtonian political junkies must be having the time of their life, and the thing is, is that the fun lasts for a week or more. I am just so jealous.

You're jealous of the terrible and undemocratic all-absentee system?

[redcommander]

A little primer for AZ:

McCain wins comfortably - which isnt surprising
Brewer wins in a blowout - also not surprising - more interestingly, once her first elected term is over in 2014, there will have been a female governor in Arizona with Jan in the name for 18 years. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer - how weird huh?)

Competitive CDs 1,5,8
CD1 (Tossup/Tilt D)-Rusty Bowers will win the primary and go on to face Kirkpatrick, who is the least vulnerable of the vulnerable AZ dems.  This race should have been much easier considering the big conservative tilt of the district, but Bowers is old and doesn't present that fresh face aura that would help him this year. At the same time, immigration politics and a large Brewer win should sweep her out.  (R+6 PVI)

CD5 (Pure Tossup)-There are a bunch of republicans running in this Scottsdale/Tempe district and they are continuing to practice the art of self destruction.  David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith continue to snipe, while former Lucasarts bigwig Jim Ward is quietly fundraising and building friends in Scottsdale.  If Ward wins, this goes to tossup/lean R.  If Bitter Smith or Schweikert win its tossup/lean d with an emphasis on the lean d.  Harry Mitchell is lucky that hes in a district that is mainly made up of white collar employees, wealthy people and college students.  That makeup may end up saving him in November.  Democrats in working class/blue collar districts are having a much harder time.

CD8 (Tossup/Lean R)-Jonathan Paton will win the R primary and go on to face Giffords in the general.  Giffords has damaged herself bigtime with votes on healthcare and by being a high profile Pelosi acolyte.  That is a much harder sell in a working class/rural district.  Paton's opponent Jesse Kelly has had some damaging news come out about his family's construction company having actively sought stimulus money for projects.  Kelly also has went negative on Palin, who will likely endorse and provide some serious fundraising power to Paton (who is already a decent fundraiser).  Paton has a top tier ad campaign about to come out (I know because one of my best friends creates the ads and you have certainly seen them in national media) and is going to give Giffords one hell of a fight.  Interestingly, Paton and Giffords dated in high school.  Giffords will need a huge hispanic turnout to save her.

*A note about all the three competitive dem cds-Brewers impending win this fall and the immigration debate could sweep them all out.

Slightly Competitive Seat But Not Really CD3 (Likely Republican)-Its probably going to come down to Ben Quayle or Vernon Parker.  Ben Quayle is dumb for running an ad that most republicans agree with, but was executed in an idiotic way.  Vernon Parker is the black mayor of Paradise Valley and has a lot of monetary support.  Quayle has the name ID.

I think Gorman will probably be the nominee in CD3.

[Torie]

With this odd election system in Washington, I must say Washingtonian political junkies must be having the time of their life, and the thing is, is that the fun lasts for a week or more. I am just so jealous.

You're jealous of the terrible and undemocratic all-absentee system?

I was focusing on the fun of the extended orgasm of wondering over a couple of weeks, just how the numbers will evolve, and who is up and down, and so forth. Most of us just get a hard on for one night. And then there are the provisional ballots, which of course are counted last, and always lean Dem, because more Dems don't know how to vote properly than Pubbies. That is what I meant.

[Torie]

Washington Senate primary update:

Dem candidates: 49.93%      
GOP candidates: 49.05%
Others:                1.02%

From what remains out, it appears that team GOP might just about even the score when all the votes are counted. For some reason, the late ballots are not King County heavy this time (with only about a 10% share of the outstanding total).

[Sam Spade]

Washington Senate primary update:

Dem candidates: 49.93%      
GOP candidates: 49.05%
Others:                1.02%

From what remains out, it appears that team GOP might just about even the score when all the votes are counted. For some reason, the late ballots are not King County heavy this time (with only about a 10% share of the outstanding total).

Your maths are wrong, fwiw...

DEM candidates (5) - 672,215 (48.76%)
GOP candidates (6) - 684,964 (49.68%)
Others (4) - 21,498 (1.56%)

[Torie]

And gosh, I actually put the little percentages on an excel spreadsheet. Oh well. What would I do without you Sam?  


Addendum: Actually Sam, since I put up my numbers, some more votes have been counted, so F you!

[Tender Branson]

Final (I guess) Mason-Dixon poll for the FL primaries:

DEM Senate Primary:

42% Meek
30% Greene
  4% Ferré
  1% Burkett
23% Undecided

GOP Governor Primary:

45% McCollum
36% Scott
  4% McAlister
15% Undecided

Poll period: August 17 through 19. Subjects: 500 likely Democratic primary voters and 500 likely Republican primary voters. Margin for error: 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.wesh.com/download/2010/0821/24714650.pdf

[Torie]

Quite a recovery by McCollum there. Meek winning will be good news for Rubio.

[Eraserhead]

I think Greene is probably done. That'll complicate things for Crist greatly, I suspect.

[ajc0918]

I think Greene is probably done. That'll complicate things for Crist greatly, I suspect.

Not really, Meek only polls 1 point higher than Greene.

And Crist doesn't want Greene in saturate the market with anti-Crist ads. Greene can afford those, Meek can't. Meek is going to be short of money now thanks to the primary, and he only averages $1 mil per quarter, so...

Crist is still in decent shape.

[Eraserhead]

I think Greene is probably done. That'll complicate things for Crist greatly, I suspect.

Not really, Meek only polls 1 point higher than Greene.

And Crist doesn't want Greene in saturate the market with anti-Crist ads. Greene can afford those, Meek can't. Meek is going to be short of money now thanks to the primary, and he only averages $1 mil per quarter, so...

Crist is still in decent shape.

This has nothing to do with the current polling. If Greene is nominated, the entire Democratic establishment will abandon him almost instantly and Crist will become the de facto nominee. Also, if Greene is nominated, Crist gets the blacks in the general.

[Lunar]

Eraserhead is correct, a Greene win makes it easier for Crist to be come the de facto Democratic nominee

[Sam Spade]

Just fyi - Mason-Dixon is historically not that good in primaries.

However, I suspect Greene is a dead duck and has been for a while now.  FL Gov I'm less sure about, but McCollum will probably win it slightly - it would be the first time McCollum has run a successful campaign against a real opponent ever, actually.  Maybe he's learned something - the going really, really negative was the correct call in this case.

[Torie]

Team GOP "surges" into the lead in the Washington Senate race:

GOP          Dems      Others
49.71%   48.73%   1.56%

By the way, a guy has an article up at RCP where he posits that Pattycakes is in deep trouble for the general. The thesis is that when the Dems get less than 46% of the vote, they lose in the general:

"As a general rule, when the Democratic share of the vote rises above 52 percent, the Democratic nominee can feel pretty safe that he or she will win. When it falls below 46 percent, the Republican will almost certainly win."

Patty has 46.42% at the moment, and it looks like it will sink another 20 basis points or so maybe before we are done. The author calls the race a toss-up, but that the tennis shoe lady should be very worried. When 52% is a win, and less than 46% is a loss, and you are at maybe 46.2%, that just isn't very comforting is it? Sure the Dem share total is more in the lower end of the mid-range of 48.73% (maybe 48.25%-48.5% when we are all done, but it may even fall below 48% now that I notice the slug of votes still out in Spokane, which are twice as many as in King County), but the other Dem candidates were flakes, and I suspect more of a protest vote. Those folks may not even bother to vote in November, and if they do, I suspect a lot of them won't be voting for Patty.

Nate at 538 notes the article, and wonders if the data that generated the regression analysis should have been split between August primaries and September ones, with the latter having a lower standard deviation of variance between the primary numbers and the general election numbers. Maybe.

By the way, in California, a Republican won a special state senate election on August 17 by 5%, that Obama probably carried by about 20% or more, in a district running from a bit of the north end of Santa Barbara county (i.e, the most conservative part up in Santa Maria), through SLO County, and then taking in Monterey and Santa Cruz counties (albeit not the counterculture precincts in Santa Cruz itself), and then a bit of Santa Clara County.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One of the candidates for FL-17 got robbed over the weekend:

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[tmthforu94]

I'm really relieved McCain will most likely win his primary. A few months ago I was starting to get worried Hayworth may beat him. Thankfully not! It's been a joy following McCain on Facebook - his photographers are very talented.

[redcommander]

Team GOP "surges" into the lead in the Washington Senate race:

GOP          Dems      Others
49.71%   48.73%   1.56%

By the way, a guy has an article up at RCP where he posits that Pattycakes is in deep trouble for the general. The thesis is that when the Dems get less than 46% of the vote, they lose in the general:

"As a general rule, when the Democratic share of the vote rises above 52 percent, the Democratic nominee can feel pretty safe that he or she will win. When it falls below 46 percent, the Republican will almost certainly win."

Patty has 46.42% at the moment, and it looks like it will sink another 20 basis points or so maybe before we are done. The author calls the race a toss-up, but that the tennis shoe lady should be very worried. When 52% is a win, and less than 46% is a loss, and you are at maybe 46.2%, that just isn't very comforting is it? Sure the Dem share total is more in the lower end of the mid-range of 48.73% (maybe 48.25%-48.5% when we are all done, but it may even fall below 48% now that I notice the slug of votes still out in Spokane, which are twice as many as in King County), but the other Dem candidates were flakes, and I suspect more of a protest vote. Those folks may not even bother to vote in November, and if they do, I suspect a lot of them won't be voting for Patty.

Nate at 538 notes the article, and wonders if the data that generated the regression analysis should have been split between August primaries and September ones, with the latter having a lower standard deviation of variance between the primary numbers and the general election numbers. Maybe.

By the way, in California, a Republican won a special state senate election on August 17 by 5%, that Obama probably carried by about 20% or more, in a district running from a bit of the north end of Santa Barbara county (i.e, the most conservative part up in Santa Maria), through SLO County, and then taking in Monterey and Santa Cruz counties (albeit not the counterculture precincts in Santa Cruz itself), and then a bit of Santa Clara County.

It's nice that Maldanado's district remains in Republican hands. Blakeslee will be an excellent state senator.

[Dgov]

It's nice that Maldanado's district remains in Republican hands. Blakeslee will be an excellent state senator.

His challenger was a perfect example of the phrase "Too Liberal for this district".  The 15th Senate District is only a point or two more Conservative than the state as a whole, which suggests that the Statewide races are going to be competitive. Obama won 60% here in 2008 compared to 61% Statewide.

[Holmes]

The problem with California's 15th district is that the southern parts of it have nothing in common with the northern parts and they should be in separate districts. I'm sure Blakeslee will be as much of a creep as Maldonado.

[Torie]

It's nice that Maldanado's district remains in Republican hands. Blakeslee will be an excellent state senator.

His challenger was a perfect example of the phrase "Too Liberal for this district".  The 15th Senate District is only a point or two more Conservative than the state as a whole, which suggests that the Statewide races are going to be competitive. Obama won 60% here in 2008 compared to 61% Statewide.

Where did you find the data for POTUS vote breakdowns for state senate seats, Dgov? I would like to know where that is!  Thanks.

[redcommander]

The problem with California's 15th district is that the southern parts of it have nothing in common with the northern parts and they should be in separate districts. I'm sure Blakeslee will be as much of a creep as Maldonado.

Nobody can be a bigger creep than Maldonado.

[Torie]

The problem with California's 15th district is that the southern parts of it have nothing in common with the northern parts and they should be in separate districts. I'm sure Blakeslee will be as much of a creep as Maldonado.

Well remember the state senate seats have more population than Congressional Districts, so sometimes they need to take in quite a bit of territory. Once you get outside the LA, SF, SD and Sacto metro areas, California does spread out a bit.  It isn't just one housing tract after another, until you hit the sea or mountains or the Mojave Desert. But then, since you live in the area (or did, didn't you?), I guess you already knew that.

[cinyc]

It's nice that Maldanado's district remains in Republican hands. Blakeslee will be an excellent state senator.

His challenger was a perfect example of the phrase "Too Liberal for this district".  The 15th Senate District is only a point or two more Conservative than the state as a whole, which suggests that the Statewide races are going to be competitive. Obama won 60% here in 2008 compared to 61% Statewide.

Where did you find the data for POTUS vote breakdowns for state senate seats, Dgov? I would like to know where that is!  Thanks.

The California SoS releases the presidential vote by county by political district.  They even have it available in spreadsheet form:

Senate District 15   
                              Obama   McCain   Keyes McKinney Barr Nader            
   Monterey                53,432   25,992   257   218   430   671
   San Luis Obispo   68,176   61,055   502   355   713   1,317
   Santa Barbara        16,086   18,047   151   61   127   261
   Santa Clara           63,413   36,912   283   204   589   633
   Santa Cruz           35,046   12,884   141   112   278   432
District Totals            236,153   154,890   1,334 950 2,137 3,314
   Percent                  59.1%   38.8%   0.3%   0.2%   0.5%   0.8%

Links to California SOS results page;  2008 results.

[Torie]

Thanks cinyc.

[Хahar 🤔]

The problem with California's 15th district is that the southern parts of it have nothing in common with the northern parts and they should be in separate districts. I'm sure Blakeslee will be as much of a creep as Maldonado.

Yeah, basically. It's the worst district in California, I think.

Obviously I'm not happy about the result, but the district will be gone come next election, and I got a free shirt out of it.