2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[bgwah]

And just for fun, Republicans-only map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&off=3&elect=2&fips=53&f=0



Didier strength:



Akers strength:




As you can probably guess, Franklin is Didier's home county, and Whatcom is Akers' home county.

Lewis County being Rossi's 2nd best is very interesting to me, and not something I would have expected. It definitely strikes me as a Tea Party kind of county.

[RI]

Senate by Candidate and House Results for every seat:

[bgwah]

And just for fun, some of the competitive primaries... And yes I know they're top 2 primaries, but I maintain that the maps are more interesting when the parties are separate!

[Eraserhead]

Washington briefly had separate party primaries (including the 2004 primaries) but 1998 had an open primary.

Amusingly enough, it resembles this one somewhat...

1998:
46% Murray (D)
32% Smith (R)
15% Bayley (R)

2010:
46% Murray (D)
34% Rossi (R)
12% Didier (R)

Murray isn't getting 58% again. Smith was too extreme to be elected statewide. Rossi is far more electable

So why does he keep epic failing then?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Total party vote for the House races:

WA-01: 56.85 D, 38.39 R, 4.27 I
WA-02: 53.39 D, 46.61 R
WA-03: 52.91 R, 42.95 D, 4.15 I
WA-04: 64.90 R, 22.89 D, 7.02 "Tea", 2.93 C, 2.25 I
WA-05: 62.51 R, 31.72 D, 5.76 C
WA-06: 57.60 D, 42.40 R
WA-07: 93.10 D, 6.90 I
WA-08: 58.42 R, 39.27 D, 2.31 I
WA-09: 52.16 D, 44.46 R, 3.38 I

Looks like bad news for the Dems' chances in WA-03 and WA-08. Heck and DelBene performed pretty poorly.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What's going on with WA-02? The results were far closer there than I'd have expected.

[Brittain33]

What's going on with WA-02? The results were far closer there than I'd have expected.

Relative to Dem-held seats in WA-1, -6, and -9, it looks par for the course. That district isn't solidly Democratic.

[RI]

What's going on with WA-02? The results were far closer there than I'd have expected.

Koster managed to pull off a victory in Snohomish County, which significantly helped narrow the results. He did so mostly because that is where his County Council seat is, and the portion of the county he won is excluding Everett, so its mostly suburban and rural, and therefore most likely to be swinging Republican this year.

[CatoMinor]

Why are there still so many precincts that haven't been counted yet? According to politico only 59% are in.

[Meeker]

More than 1/3 of the votes haven't been counted yet and the margins will fluctuate. No conclusions that are based on margins or combined party performance in various seats should be made at this point. The only thing we know for sure is the order.

ETA: I should clarify that the margins won't fluctuate massively but they'll move around enough that I'd wait until Thursday or Friday to do any sort of real analysis.

[Meeker]

As an example, the combined WA-03 percentage for the Democrats is now up to 43.77%

[bgwah]

What's going on with WA-02? The results were far closer there than I'd have expected.

Koster has run against Larsen before when the seat was open in 2000, and came close to beating him. Furthermore, Larsen had two challenges from the left that nabbed about 10%. The race is where I expected it, really--still lean Larsen but definitely one to keep an eye on.

Edit: For comparison, the 2000 results:

2000 Primary:
49.06% Koster (R)
46.40% Larsen (D)
2.90% Stuart Andrews (R)
1.64% Glen S. Johnson (R)

2000 General:
50.01% Larsen (D)
45.93% Koster (R)
2.62% Stuart Andrews (R)
1.44% Glen S. Johnson (R)

[Tender Branson]

WA ballot counters = major fail.

[bgwah]

I've heard a lot of 1994 comparisons for Washington. I've already addressed this, but in 1994 the primary was a very big indicator that the Democrats were in big trouble. For example, Tom Foley is probably remembered as the biggest loss here, losing with 49% of the vote. Well he got 35% in the primary. I haven't really seen anything like that with this primary.

I don't want to sound too optimistic, things could change of course. I think Herrera will win WA-3, Reichert will be comfortably re-elected in WA-8, WA-2 and the Senate race will be closer than I would like (but I still think the Democrats will win both), the Democrats will lose some state legislature seats... But I do not see anything resembling 1994 in these primary results.

[Meeker]

WA ballot counters = major fail.

The "issue" isn't with the counters. They've counted basically everything they have on hand. The "issue" is with the fact that ballots can legally arrive anytime for the next week and a half or so.

Personally I don't think it's a problem at all but I guess I'm just more patient than most folks.

[Brittain33]

2000 General:
50.01% Larsen (D)
45.93% Koster (R)
2.62% Stuart Andrews (R)
1.44% Glen S. Johnson (R)

As I recall, that race finished more closely for Larsen than expected. He was predicted to win by more. I recall this because 2000 was one of those years when Democrats felt like we could have won back the House and had ample opportunity in open seats like this, but Republicans won too many of the competitive open seats like MI-8 and IL-10.

[Tender Branson]

WA ballot counters = major fail.

The "issue" isn't with the counters. They've counted basically everything they have on hand. The "issue" is with the fact that ballots can legally arrive anytime for the next week and a half or so.

Personally I don't think it's a problem at all but I guess I'm just more patient than most folks.

Ah, ok. I thought they had to arrive until yesterday.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma's runoff primary is this coming Tuesday, August 24.  The biggest runoff will be in CD-5, the seat that Mary Fallin is vacating to run for governor.  The Republicans in the race are Kevin Calvey and James Lankford.  Both men, I really like.  Calvey is a conservative voice in the state legislature and is an Iraq War Veteran.  Lankford is the director of the largest Christian youth camp in the world, Falls Creek in Davis, Oklahoma.  Both men are good, conservative Christian men and I think either would do a fabulous job in Washington.  Given that this is Oklahoma, the runoff on Tuesday is going to determine who will take the seat come January, not just who will face the Democrat.  Unfortunately, I am not in the 5th district so I cannot vote for either man, rather I am in the 4th district under Tom Cole who is unopposed in November.  The good thing is neither Lankford nor Calvey are hardcore senile conservatives, like Sally Kern.  They are knowledgeable and sane conservatives.  Of course they are very conservative, but they are not idiots in their ideologies.  Kern, while she is my good friend, is a nutcase in the State House.  I don't think either of the men will be nutcases.

[cinyc]

What else is next week?  Which state should I focus mapping on?

[Meeker]

What else is next week?  Which state should I focus mapping on?

Florida

[cinyc]

What else is next week?  Which state should I focus mapping on?

Florida

And Arizona and Vermont.  Arizona has McCain-Hayworth and the Democratic Senate primary, as well as governor, I think.  Vermont's races are pretty boring (I guess there's the governor's race), but detail could be Connecticut-level or greater because results are reported by town, most towns only have one precinct and those who have more sometimes report even precinct-level results.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Geez, guys, keep your pants on. I've updated the OP.

[Joe Biden 2020]

What else is next week?  Which state should I focus mapping on?

Florida

And Arizona and Vermont.  Arizona has McCain-Hayworth and the Democratic Senate primary, as well as governor, I think.  Vermont's races are pretty boring (I guess there's the governor's race), but detail could be Connecticut-level or greater because results are reported by town, most towns only have one precinct and those who have more sometimes report even precinct-level results.

Cue the jamespol meister in 3... 2... 1...

He's an Arizonan now and can tell you all about Arizona politics, lol.

[nhmagic]

A little primer for AZ:

McCain wins comfortably - which isnt surprising
Brewer wins in a blowout - also not surprising - more interestingly, once her first elected term is over in 2014, there will have been a female governor in Arizona with Jan in the name for 18 years. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer - how weird huh?)

Competitive CDs 1,5,8
CD1 (Tossup/Tilt D)-Rusty Bowers will win the primary and go on to face Kirkpatrick, who is the least vulnerable of the vulnerable AZ dems.  This race should have been much easier considering the big conservative tilt of the district, but Bowers is old and doesn't present that fresh face aura that would help him this year. At the same time, immigration politics and a large Brewer win should sweep her out.  (R+6 PVI)

CD5 (Pure Tossup)-There are a bunch of republicans running in this Scottsdale/Tempe district and they are continuing to practice the art of self destruction.  David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith continue to snipe, while former Lucasarts bigwig Jim Ward is quietly fundraising and building friends in Scottsdale.  If Ward wins, this goes to tossup/lean R.  If Bitter Smith or Schweikert win its tossup/lean d with an emphasis on the lean d.  Harry Mitchell is lucky that hes in a district that is mainly made up of white collar employees, wealthy people and college students.  That makeup may end up saving him in November.  Democrats in working class/blue collar districts are having a much harder time.

CD8 (Tossup/Lean R)-Jonathan Paton will win the R primary and go on to face Giffords in the general.  Giffords has damaged herself bigtime with votes on healthcare and by being a high profile Pelosi acolyte.  That is a much harder sell in a working class/rural district.  Paton's opponent Jesse Kelly has had some damaging news come out about his family's construction company having actively sought stimulus money for projects.  Kelly also has went negative on Palin, who will likely endorse and provide some serious fundraising power to Paton (who is already a decent fundraiser).  Paton has a top tier ad campaign about to come out (I know because one of my best friends creates the ads and you have certainly seen them in national media) and is going to give Giffords one hell of a fight.  Interestingly, Paton and Giffords dated in high school.  Giffords will need a huge hispanic turnout to save her.

*A note about all the three competitive dem cds-Brewers impending win this fall and the immigration debate could sweep them all out.

Slightly Competitive Seat But Not Really CD3 (Likely Republican)-Its probably going to come down to Ben Quayle or Vernon Parker.  Ben Quayle is dumb for running an ad that most republicans agree with, but was executed in an idiotic way.  Vernon Parker is the black mayor of Paradise Valley and has a lot of monetary support.  Quayle has the name ID.

[Torie]

With this odd election system in Washington, I must say Washingtonian political junkies must be having the time of their life, and the thing is, is that the fun lasts for a week or more. I am just so jealous.