2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Updated OP with next week's primaries, such as they are.

[Sam Spade]

Actually, what the Georgia gov map almost looks like at a glance is "McCain + Romney = Handel" and "Huckabee = Deal", with a couple obvious exceptions. Of course, don't read into this that Huckabee's endorsement meant anything at all, because it definitely didn't.

That's not what I'm seeing.  The Southern 2/3rds of the Georgia map (and especially rural areas) looks an awful lot like the racial breakdown of the state, with Handel doing better in areas with more blacks and Deal in areas with more whites.  The correlation is not *that* striking (or dispositive of anything), but there is something going on, I suspect.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was going to muse about why Entenza won the majority black precincts in Minneapolis until I remembered that his running mate is black.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, what the Georgia gov map almost looks like at a glance is "McCain + Romney = Handel" and "Huckabee = Deal", with a couple obvious exceptions. Of course, don't read into this that Huckabee's endorsement meant anything at all, because it definitely didn't.

Yeah, it's just that Deal appeals to Huckabee for the same reason that they appeal to the same kind of voters. Real (esp. White) Georgia vs Fake (esp. White) Georgia if you ask me.

[Torie]

Actually, what the Georgia gov map almost looks like at a glance is "McCain + Romney = Handel" and "Huckabee = Deal", with a couple obvious exceptions. Of course, don't read into this that Huckabee's endorsement meant anything at all, because it definitely didn't.

That's not what I'm seeing.  The Southern 2/3rds of the Georgia map (and especially rural areas) looks an awful lot like the racial breakdown of the state, with Handel doing better in areas with more blacks and Deal in areas with more whites.  The correlation is not *that* striking (or dispositive of anything), but there is something going on, I suspect.

Assuming Deal is viewed as the more troglodytic of the two (that gay bashing commercial still has me really freaked out), it is interesting to ponder if whites these days who rub shoulders a lot with blacks are now a bit less bigoted than whites who do not down in what used to be the racist belt. That would be a bit surprising, but what else would explain the pattern, if it is a real pattern, as opposed to a class pattern, or a regional one (Deal carrying the counties in the north can be explained be regionalism)?  It might be interesting to see if upper middle class precincts voted differently from those which are not, to a substantial degree.

[minionofmidas]

The heavily Black counties of Southwest Georgia probably don't have all that many people voting in the R primary. Ie, it's probably just a class thing. (And it need not be specifically about gays. Just about the good ole folks back home vs all these incomers who're trying to take over the state.)

[Torie]

The heavily Black counties of Southwest Georgia probably don't have all that many people voting in the R primary. Ie, it's probably just a class thing. (And it need not be specifically about gays. Just about the good ole folks back home vs all these incomers who're trying to take over the state.)

Handel was viewed as some kind of outsider? 

[minionofmidas]

The heavily Black counties of Southwest Georgia probably don't have all that many people voting in the R primary. Ie, it's probably just a class thing. (And it need not be specifically about gays. Just about the good ole folks back home vs all these incomers who're trying to take over the state.)

Handel was viewed as some kind of outsider?  

Deal was the good old boy, traditional candidate. I mean, the guy's been in Congress these last twenty years and was a Democrat til 95. And had pork issues. While Handel had Tea Party support, and that's a suburban, rootless, evil phenomenon.
I don't know when Handel first moved to Atlanta, but it must have been sometime between 1992 and 2002, as an adult. She's from the Beltway originally.

[Torie]

The heavily Black counties of Southwest Georgia probably don't have all that many people voting in the R primary. Ie, it's probably just a class thing. (And it need not be specifically about gays. Just about the good ole folks back home vs all these incomers who're trying to take over the state.)

Handel was viewed as some kind of outsider?  

Deal was the good old boy, traditional candidate. I mean, the guy's been in Congress these last twenty years and was a Democrat til 95. And had pork issues. While Handel had Tea Party support, and that's a suburban, rootless, evil phenomenon.
I don't know when Handel first moved to Atlanta, but it must have been sometime between 1992 and 2002, as an adult. She's from the Beltway originally.

Sounds reasonable. I did not know Handel's bio. Thanks.

[cinyc]

Actually, what the Georgia gov map almost looks like at a glance is "McCain + Romney = Handel" and "Huckabee = Deal", with a couple obvious exceptions. Of course, don't read into this that Huckabee's endorsement meant anything at all, because it definitely didn't.

That's not what I'm seeing.  The Southern 2/3rds of the Georgia map (and especially rural areas) looks an awful lot like the racial breakdown of the state, with Handel doing better in areas with more blacks and Deal in areas with more whites.  The correlation is not *that* striking (or dispositive of anything), but there is something going on, I suspect.

Assuming Deal is viewed as the more troglodytic of the two (that gay bashing commercial still has me really freaked out), it is interesting to ponder if whites these days who rub shoulders a lot with blacks are now a bit less bigoted than whites who do not down in what used to be the racist belt. That would be a bit surprising, but what else would explain the pattern, if it is a real pattern, as opposed to a class pattern, or a regional one (Deal carrying the counties in the north can be explained be regionalism)?  It might be interesting to see if upper middle class precincts voted differently from those which are not, to a substantial degree.

Well, the correlation between county Non-Hispanic white percentage and Deal vote percentage is very weak - the r squared is only .11.  Both won counties that are heavily non-white, including in Southern Georgia.  Both won white counties, too.  Here's a map (Deal vote in blue; Handel in green; Counties with <65% whites outlined in red).  Non-Hispanic white percentage is based on 2009 census estimates.  It's NOT the voting age population number.



The bigger distinction I see is urban/suburban versus rural.  Handel won the counties that include Atlanta and most of its suburbs, Macon and its main suburbs, Augusta, Savannah, Brunswick, Valdosta, Albany, Columbus and even suburban Chattanooga.  Deal won most of the rest of the state.

[Torie]

Great map cinyc. There are enough anomalies to the urban versus rural bit however from your map, that I strongly suspect it is more class based. Notice that Handel won Forsyth, while losing Gwinnett. The proof in the pudding would be to look at at sampling of higher income precincts across the state and see how they voted, and then look at white working or lower middle class precincts in more urban areas and see how they voted, or as compared to the county at large for that matter, since most of the electorate in the GOP primary would be white. It might be interesting to see how the bourgeoisie precincts of Savannah voted. I know where those are if I saw a precinct map. For some reason, I have gotten to know Savannah pretty well - much better than that Atlanta metro region. I hate Atlanta, and its outlying areas even more, and hate most of all its airport.

You really do great maps Cinyc (with all of that analytical stuff you do that is reflected therein, coming up as you do with interesting hypotheses to test); I know they take a lot of work, and you really don't get thanked for it the way you should. So I am pleased to try to try to make some amends on that, by expressing my thanks, and how much I enjoy your maps.

[Sam Spade]

I'm tending to agree more with you, Torie.  What's odd is the most of Forsyth is in Deal's district, whereas Gwinnett isn't.

[cinyc]

I'm tending to agree more with you, Torie.  What's odd is the most of Forsyth is in Deal's district, whereas Gwinnett isn't.

Too much is being made of the Forsyth/Gwinnett divide.  Deal won Gwinnett 50.7%-49.3%.  Deal lost Forsyth 49.4%-50.6%.

Great map cinyc. There are enough anomalies to the urban versus rural bit however from your map, that I strongly suspect it is more class based. Notice that Handel won Forsyth, while losing Gwinnett. The proof in the pudding would be to look at at sampling of higher income precincts across the state and see how they voted, and then look at white working or lower middle class precincts in more urban areas and see how they voted, or as compared to the county at large for that matter, since most of the electorate in the GOP primary would be white. It might be interesting to see how the bourgeoisie precincts of Savannah voted. I know where those are if I saw a precinct map. For some reason, I have gotten to know Savannah pretty well - much better than that Atlanta metro region. I hate Atlanta, and its outlying areas even more, and hate most of all its airport.

You really do great maps Cinyc (with all of that analytical stuff you do that is reflected therein, coming up as you do with interesting hypotheses to test); I know they take a lot of work, and you really don't get thanked for it the way you should. So I am pleased to try to try to make some amends on that, by expressing my thanks, and how much I enjoy your maps.

Thanks for the kind words.

I don't have the data to do precinct level analysis - and perhaps never will because of ever-shifting precinct boundaries.   Plus, more census data is available at aggregate levels like county and town than lower levels like voting precinct or block, which is necessary to aggregate into precinct-level data.  The economic data in particular isn't necessarily there unless precinct boundaries follow block groups.

What I can tell you based on quick calculations is this:  The correlation coefficient for Deal% vs. county-level Median Household Income is very weak - about -.09 (r squared .008).   The correlation coefficient for other county-level things is a bit higher, but none that I've tested so far higher than county non-Hispanic white percentage:

Category	Correl Coeff	R Squared
% Non-Hispanic White (2009)	.34	.11
% Ancestry = "American"	.31	.1
County GA PVI (Dem>0, Rep<0)	-.31	.1
% Lived out-of-state in 1995	-.24	.06
County Inside a Metro Area?	-.24	.06
% Bachelor's Degree or higher	-.21	.05
% Born in Georgia	.21	.05
Median Household Income	-.09	.008
% Below Poverty Level	-.05	.002

Note: I didn't do any fancy multiple regression.  I just had Excel calculate correlation coefficients.  All data except the Non-Hispanic White percentage is from the 2000 Census, which is getting old.

[tpfkaw]

Do we have a final map of the CT Senate primary?

[cinyc]

Do we have a final map of the CT Senate primary?

We're still missing a precinct in Bridgeport (and I still think the vote tally there is wrong - no way only 64 Republicans voted in the Republican Senate primary and nearly 500 in the Republican Gubernatorial primary).  McMahon in blue, Simmons red, Schiff Green.  There was a tie in the town of Griswold:



And, assuming I haven't screwed up any formuals in the spreadsheet, relative turnout by town in the Senate primary.  Overall Republican turnout was just under 30%:



I'm using the Atlas margin scale for this map.  >40% is the darkest red.  Every other red shade is in 5 point increments.   Bridgeport is missing - it's not 100% in, so no turnout percentage was calculated.

Turnout percent is of percentage of active Republicans in 2009, the last date on which the CT SoS released data in the days immediately before the election.

[tpfkaw]

snip

Thanks!

[Joe Biden 2020]

Does anybody know if there will be television coverage of the August 24 primaries?  That seems like of the last two big primary days before we fully enter the general campaign. (September 14 being the very last big day).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why would you need television coverage when you have the Atlas forum? Sam Spade is a better predicator than those fancy-talkin' picture box folks.

[Torie]

Why would you need television coverage when you have the Atlas forum? Sam Spade is a better predicator than those fancy-talkin' picture box folks.

Am I just chopped liver ahole?  

[Lunar]

I don't remember you predicting anything Toriesters.  Predict something for me right now.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Why would you need television coverage when you have the Atlas forum? Sam Spade is a better predicator than those fancy-talkin' picture box folks.

Am I just chopped liver ahole? 

Well, if the shoe fits...  kidding.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Why would you need television coverage when you have the Atlas forum? Sam Spade is a better predicator than those fancy-talkin' picture box folks.

Because I like those fancy-talkin' picture box folks.  I like the colors and the colorful commentary!!

[Torie]

I don't remember you predicting anything Toriesters.  Predict something for me right now.

I predict all kinds of things on election night. Isn't that what was the context here?  I used to predict what would happen in November race by race for Congress (Sam will tell you, and I did pretty well), but Sam "learned" so much from me, that I decided to just leave it all to him.

I did make one prediction though for this cycle. The GOP has a 60% chance of taking over the House, based on my gut. We shall see. Oh, and that Whitman would beat Brown, and by a comfortable margin. You can write that down. Cheers buddy.

[Sam Spade]

Why would you need television coverage when you have the Atlas forum? Sam Spade is a better predicator than those fancy-talkin' picture box folks.

You're not too bad either (mutual admiration society at work )

Torie is very good at predicting races as the votes come in based on past results.  Really better than me, actually, in certain places.

[Sam Spade]

Just bumping this up to note that Benishek ended up having a 15-vote win in the final tally and Allen decided to concede and not ask for a recount.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/08/allen-benishek-mcdowell-stupak.html