2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, so who's the guy that's outside the district then? I can't keep all these generic Republican state legislators straight.

[memphis]

Oooh, ooh, my state's next Haslam's pretty much has the gubernatorial nomination for the GOP. Cohen's going to demolish Herenton in TN-9, which is going to be so much fun. The GOP TN-8 race has been really ugly. The local paper says that it's been the most expensive race in the country. I think Fincher's got that one, but I'm not as sure as I don't live in the district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

If Spade's theory as to what the Tea Party actually is happens to be accurate, then it makes a lot of sense.

And that theory is...?

[Lunar]

Herenton, as a big city mayor, really proves the importance of this thing we call an "issue" for upsetting incumbents in primaries.

Do SOMETHING.  It doesn't have to be something that the majority of the electorate agrees with you on.  For challengers going after solidly liberal/conservative incumbents, as long as it's something you believe in, it's better, in my opinion to passionately back an issue that 45% of the electorate agrees with you on, 55% disagrees, than to never have any policy distinction between you and your opponent whatsoever

Do something to make your campaign interesting.  The race argument was lame, and everyone knows it.  Reporters covered Herenton's "just one" campaign message as a gimmick when his real #1 argument should have been "Cohen can't care the jobs we need, I can."  

[Torie]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

If Spade's theory as to what the Tea Party actually is happens to be accurate, then it makes a lot of sense.

And that theory is...?

He probably thinks it is more a lower middle class suburban and exurban movement, than anything more rural. That is my guess anyway.

[memphis]

Herenton, as a big city mayor, really proves the importance of this thing we call an "issue" for upsetting incumbents in primaries.

The GOP disagrees. For them, it's all about OMGZ teh socialsim  obama muslim pelosi kenya.

[Sam Spade]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

If Spade's theory as to what the Tea Party actually is happens to be accurate, then it makes a lot of sense.

And that theory is...?

He probably thinks it is more a lower middle class suburban and exurban movement, than anything more rural. That is my guess anyway.

I don't know whether class has anything to do with it - rather my point is that the Tea Party is a phenomenon that is primarily associated with motivating and getting out GOP voters in the suburbs, not voters in rural areas.

In Kansas, the KC metro suburbs is the area that fits, obviously.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Polls close at 8 ET tonight. Here's the AP results link. I'll see you at the polls, and have a nice day.

[Verily]

Herenton, as a big city mayor, really proves the importance of this thing we call an "issue" for upsetting incumbents in primaries.

The GOP disagrees. For them, it's all about OMGZ teh socialsim  obama muslim pelosi kenya.

That's still an "issue" (note the scare quotes). Some of the incumbents who lost were defeated because they were perceived as too close to Obama/the Democrats--even though only delusional crazies would see Bob Inglis that way. (Others, like Cannon, did lose on an issue; in his case, not hating Hispanics enough.)

[Nym90]

So wait, Allen lives outside the district, right? Doesn't that mean that he lost because he (and, presuming he's married, his wife) couldn't vote for himself? I realize that the final count will probably not end in a 1-vote margin for Benishek, but it's still a wonderful thought.

Anyway, here are some quick and dirty maps of a few of the House primaries:

He lived in Traverse City until the time of declaring his candidacy. I think he always had a summer home in Emmet County and just made it his official residence.

[Nym90]

But yeah, GOP chances in MI-1 certainly took a hit. Benishek would be a much weaker candidate in the general geographically considering that the majority of the population of the district lives much closer to McDowell, not to mention he's much more conservative and inexperienced thus more likely to make a gaffe and make himself the issue. If Allen ultimately wins the nomination the regionalism plays to McDowell's advantage in the UP.

Plus if there's a recount and the battle for the nomination drags on that obviously doesn't help.

[Nym90]

Another observation is that Benishek tended to do well in the same places as Cox in the western U.P. They are both similar ideologically and had Tea Party backing, which could be a coincidence, or not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Herenton, as a big city mayor, really proves the importance of this thing we call an "issue" for upsetting incumbents in primaries.

The GOP disagrees. For them, it's all about OMGZ teh socialsim  obama muslim pelosi kenya.

That's still an "issue" (note the scare quotes). Some of the incumbents who lost were defeated because they were perceived as too close to Obama/the Democrats--even though only delusional crazies would see Bob Inglis that way. (Others, like Cannon, did lose on an issue; in his case, not hating Hispanics enough.)

Cannon lost in 2008. You might be thinking of Bennet, who lost on the same "issues" that Inglis did.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

Not really. If so, not by any significant amount. But of course I am not in Kansas, so that may very well have been how the narrative played out.


In hindsight I should have taken into count the recent polling data and lowered my prediction from 10 to 5% for Moran. I got some of the districts wrong like the first mainly because in the absence of having heard anything about it in weeks, I just assumed the former statewide candidate (Barnett) to have the advantage. Jenkings, Yoder, and Pompeo were pretty much as I expected. the KS-02 Dem primary was a little surprising but it probablly won't matter. KS will have four GOP House members for the first time since 1996.

In Michigan, I didn't give Snyder enough credit nor did I have a good sense of the race and how it progressed. I see no reason why the GOP shouldn't be able to reclaim the MI Governorship. MI-01 was definately interesting and will remain so for a little while, AP has Benishek up by 14 now I beleive. Riemersma was much weaker then expected and certainly didn't live up to the hype surronding his candidacy. Amash won the MI-03 primary as expected. I thought MI-07 would be closer. Rocky won in MI-09 and will give Peters a race, the environment and how strong he is will determine the outcome, put it in the CO-07 category of seats. Kilpatrick has finally been sent packing and will no longer be there to disgrace the great state of MI.

Blunt won by Toomeyesque margins which was much better then I expected. The talk of Purgason upsetting him was all without any base in reality appearently.



As for Tennessee, Haslam will win the primary for Governor. Not sure about TN-03, 06, or 08 GOP primaries.

[cinyc]

But yeah, GOP chances in MI-1 certainly took a hit. Benishek would be a much weaker candidate in the general geographically considering that the majority of the population of the district lives much closer to McDowell, not to mention he's much more conservative and inexperienced thus more likely to make a gaffe and make himself the issue. If Allen ultimately wins the nomination the regionalism plays to McDowell's advantage in the UP.

Plus if there's a recount and the battle for the nomination drags on that obviously doesn't help.

Well, Stupak was as geographically removed from the center of the district as possible but somehow managed to get elected and re-elected.  Benishek would probably be the better candidate geographically for the GOP since he's a Yooper and Allen isn't.  

Red State has a geographical analysis of the MI-01 primary results that seems sound:
http://www.redstate.com/republican_michigander/2010/08/04/in-depth-analysis-on-mi-01-benishekallen-race-geography-matters/

[memphis]

Even for a rural GOP primary, Fincher has the most generic ads ever. The first one is on tv constantly.

http://stephenfincher.org/tv/

[cinyc]

The TN Department of State also promises results tonight on their website:

http://tnsos.org/elections/Results/20100805Results.php

[JohnnyLongtorso]

All three of the major gubernatorial candidates are from eastern Tennessee. Who's going to win the rest of the state?

[Meeker]

Basil Marceaux is listed as a candidate in the 3rd CD Republican primary as well as the primary for Governor. Is that a typo or is he really running for both?

[Sam Spade]

The early voting results in Tennessee usually mean a lot, just FYI.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If the early results are any indication, the answer to my question would be Haslam.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, the one interesting result so far is that Jim Cooper's nobody primary challenger is currently pulling 41% of the vote in Davidson County.

[cinyc]

The early voting results in Tennessee usually mean a lot, just FYI.

I think the TN DoS website is crashed, but before it did, I had the following results in the Governor's race:

Haslam 46,251   
Ramsey 23,294   
Wamp 20,273
Kirkpatrick 750   
Marceaux 236   

The AP results are lagging.

[Sam Spade]

The House races are the only thing interesting to me tonight - the Governor's race has been over a long time ago.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DesJarlais has a slight lead in TN-04. Fincher's ahead in TN-08. The other two races just don't have enough in yet.

A really old Dem State Senator (Douglas Henry, age 84, SD-21) is currently losing 51-49. And a Republican State House member (Eric Swafford, HD-25) is getting crushed 68-32. Anyone know what's going on with these two?