2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Joe Biden 2020]

Who would have been stronger against Fallin?  The Lt Gov, or the 16-year State Attorney General?

Who knows?  Fallin will need to make some missteps, it's hard to say who would be the more talented candidate to capitalize on them should they occur

[as someone who hasn't followed this race]

I think Jari Askins has a great shot at beating Mary Fallin.  It will be a very close race this November just like it was in 2002 between Brad Henry and Steve Largent.  That race wasn't called until Wednesday morning.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, the primary poll by Sooner/Tulsa World sucked big time.

It had Edmondson winning by 16 points and Fallin by 38 points.



As for the GE, the Sooner poll has Askins down by 6 against Fallin, but Rasmussen had her down by more than 20 points ...

[Lunar]

Who would have been stronger against Fallin?  The Lt Gov, or the 16-year State Attorney General?

Who knows?  Fallin will need to make some missteps, it's hard to say who would be the more talented candidate to capitalize on them should they occur

[as someone who hasn't followed this race]

I think Jari Askins has a great shot at beating Mary Fallin.  It will be a very close race this November just like it was in 2002 between Brad Henry and Steve Largent.  That race wasn't called until Wednesday morning.

Why?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Who would have been stronger against Fallin?  The Lt Gov, or the 16-year State Attorney General?

Who knows?  Fallin will need to make some missteps, it's hard to say who would be the more talented candidate to capitalize on them should they occur

[as someone who hasn't followed this race]

I think Jari Askins has a great shot at beating Mary Fallin.  It will be a very close race this November just like it was in 2002 between Brad Henry and Steve Largent.  That race wasn't called until Wednesday morning.

Why?

Because Mary Fallin has been accused of voting with Nancy Pelosi and agreeing with her on some things, which may cause some Republicans to stay home.  They dont necessarily want Askins, but they don't want to work across the aisle and damn anyone who does.

[Sam Spade]

All that's left is Rogers (outside of Tulsa) and 1/3rd of Tulsa, where Edmondson is winning 62-38. Askins is up by 3,722 votes. Wow, what a close one.

Unless there are tons of Dem votes in the portions of Tulsa left or they disproportionately lean Dem, he'll still fall about 1-2000 votes short.  I doubt Rogers will have a sufficient enough margin, but who knows - he'd need numbers similar to his home county of Muscogee, I expect.

Sometimes the call just turns out right...    Anyway, Askins by 1533 with 3 precincts still outstanding.

[Sam Spade]

Who would have guessed that Barry Switzer could be a Democrat?  I never would have thought it possible.

Strange.  I thought everyone knew that.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Last time I checked, the party registration statistics (ya, you have to register by party in Oklahoma) were 50% D, 38% R, 12% I in Oklahoma.  So there should be more Dem primary voters.  The actual division ended up being 52% D, 48% R, btw, but that fits pretty much everywhere this cycle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map of the Dem primary.

[Lunar]

Heh, I didn't realize this Youth Camp Director was going to be a Congressman until now



Note the URL for that imge:

http://images.politico.com/global/news/100728_lankford_headscratch_ap_289.jpg

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, there's still the runoff.

[Lunar]

Well, there's still the runoff.

Yeah, but when have those done anything interesting lately?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

OP updated with next week's stuff. I stuck to statewide races, open seats, and competitive seats, due to space limitations and the fact that there's only so many ways to talk about a bunch of nobodies running in a primary for the right to lose to a safe incumbent.

[Meeker]

Tim Gobble's signs were the highlight of my trip to Tennessee earlier this summer.

[Meeker]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hvaeHllwtw&feature=player_embedded

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Results pages for tonight: KS | MI | MO

Polls close at 8 ET in all three states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well I guess I will make some predicitions for the these three since I have had some interest in them

KS GOP
Senate  - Moran by 10% or more
KS-01 - Jim Barnett
KS-02 - Lynn Jenkins
KS-03 - Kevin Yoder (A shame that Jordan dropped out)
KS-04 - Hartmen or Pompeo


KS-02 and 04 might be somewhat interesting with Tevis and Goyle as Democratic nominees in the general. Despite Moore's wife running in the third, I think the GOP is fairly strong in that race for several reasons, and as for KS-01, especially with a former statewide candidate in Barnett, its as safe as any open GOP seat could possibly be.

Michigan

Governor - GOP: Cox or Hoekstra. ( I started out with Cox but I have seen Hoekstra in interviews and I really like him. He seems better at Foriegn policy and in my opinion would be a better Senator then Governor). DEM: Mayor Bernero seems to have the upper hand. 

MI-01 - GOP: State Senator Jason Allen seems to be the strongest GOP candidate and with him as the nominee, I would say weak GOP Gain, without him, Weak to Mod Dem Hold as the rest of the GOP field is underfunded and inexperienced. DEM: State Rep. McDowell appears to be unopposed for the Dem nomination.
MI-02 - GOP: Jay Riemersma
MI-03 - GOP: State Rep Justin Amash
MI-07 - GOP: Interesting primary between former Rep. Tim Walberg and the brother of Representative Tom Rooney (R-FL), Brian Rooney. I think Rooney might be best by being a newer face. DEM: Rep. Mark Schauer
MI-09 - GOP: I think that Raczkowski will win the GOP nomination. If the GOP wave is strong enough he might pull it off but it is unlikely. He has run statewide (against Levin in 2002) and has been in the State Senate I beleive. He also is moderately well funded. DEM: Rep. Gary Peters.
MI-13 - DEM: Will Kilpatrick be sent home? One would hope. However I won't dare try to predict this one.


MO
Senate: GOP: Roy Blunt wins the primary, not confident of the margin however.


Anybody have any other ideas or opinions on these races?

[Dan the Roman]

Generally agree with those, with the caveat that I think Snyder will pull it out. Everyone else has serious flaws, with Hoekstra having the least, though having been present when he was briefed on Pakistani politics once while he chaired the intelligence committee, suffice to say I got a very unimpressive impression.

[Mr. Morden]

Just a few thousand votes counted in MI so far:

Hoekstra 50%
Snyder 21%
Cox 20%
Bouchard 7%

That's only 0.4% of precincts reporting though.  

[Dan the Roman]

Just a few thousand votes counted in MI so far:

Hoekstra 50%
Snyder 21%
Cox 20%
Bouchard 7%

That's only 0.4% of precincts reporting though.  

The thing is that Snyder seems to be performing very similarly to how Karen Handel did in Georgia. She lost most of the state, but she was a close second in most of her opponents strongholds, so her own was able to carry her to victory. Its early but thats the image I am getting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

St. Louis County 2/610
41 1% 44 2% 187  7% 2,006 70% 63  2%


Considering Blunt is at 70% in St. Louis, I would say he is in good shape.

[Dan the Roman]

I think Snyder has this.

Why is Upton in trouble though?

[Lunar]

Snyder's ad campaign to victory, should he win this, will be one for the history books imo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Snyder has this.

Why is Upton in trouble though?

Probably the same reason the strongest candidate is losing in MI-01.



Blunt looks like he has it in the bag.

[Mr. Morden]

3% of the vote in:

Snyder 33%
Hoekstra 32%
Cox 26%

Bernero 60%
Dillon 40%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Benishek winning early on in MI-01. Same for Kuipers in MI-02. Amash dominating in MI-03. Walberg up in MI-07. Once precinct in MI-09, Raczkowski winning. One precinct in MI-13, Cheeks Kilpatrick in distant second.

[Lunar]

I can't hate on the Tough Nerd too much, even if he's a Republican