2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Richmond is crushing in Jefferson County -- he's getting 2/3rds of the vote there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

80% in for LA-03, and Landry is 62 votes ahead of a runoff.

[Sam Spade]

Richmond will win easily.

I respect Louisiana for their fast counting system.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The local TV station (whose results I linked to upthread) has called it for him, apparently.

[Sam Spade]

I'm almost certain you can't play around in the primaries of LA and WV and I'm pretty sure Indies can't disrupt.

WV Party Registration
DEM 54.31% (only DEM/GOP 65.36%) 656,792
GOP 28.79% (only DEM/GOP 34.64%) 348,098
IND/OTH 16.90% 204,362

Tonight (1839/1881)
DEM 89,747 (63.01%)
GOP 52,677 (36.99%)

LA Party Registration
DEM 51.03% (only DEM/GOP 66.28%) 1,488,463
GOP 25.96% (only DEM/GOP 33.72%) 757,212
IND/OTH 23.01% 671,262

Tonight (2513/3877)
DEM 68,511 (50.05%)
GOP 68,371 (49.95%)

LA is probably skewed a bit Republican for now given Orleans ain't in much.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

20 precincts left in LA-03, and Landry is ahead of runoff territory by 115 votes. 11 precincts are in Terrebonne, Downer's home turf, and the only parish he's won. Landry might be dragged into a runoff, but just barely.

[Brandon H]

Richmond is crushing in Jefferson County -- he's getting 2/3rds of the vote there.

Where is Jefferson County?

I was pulling for Magar in 3. Oh well.

[Sam Spade]

Melancon's primary breakdown is amusingly predictable.

Landry's gonna have to go into the runoff.

[Brandon H]

Randall Hayes is leading Tony Gentile for the Libertarian Primary in the Senate (the first and last Libertarian primary in the state history). Gentile had been campaigning for close to a year, while Hayes jumped in at the last minute.

[Sam Spade]

I really need to keep Vitter in Likely R after this primary.

[rbt48]

Might it hurt Republicans chances in LA-3 to have to wait until the early Oct (runoff date)to know the eventual nominee.  Checking the websites of the finalists, the race seems to have turned negative.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map of the LA-03 primary. Three guesses where Mr. Downer lives.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Here's a map of the LA-03 primary. Three guesses where Mr. Downer lives.

I'm guessing the first two don't count?

[cinyc]

The Anchorage Daily News is now reporting:

-13,740 absentee votes out of the 16,000 requested have come in;
-9,069 questioned ballots exist (though some will be disqualified; and
-663 early votes have yet to be counted.

Total number of votes to be counted as of Saturday: 23,472.  

As always, these are for both the Republican and Democratic primaries - so not all will be counted toward the Miller-Murkowski race.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd LOL if O'Donnell pulled an upset in Delaware.

[cinyc]

FYI - We should be getting our first Alaska absentee count today.  The first count will be released around 11:00 AM Alaska time (3:00 PM Eastern/Noon Pacific).  They may update throughout the day.  

According to the Anchorage newspaper, the "missing" Anchorage precinct was found.  It has 496 votes - in both primaries, I guess.  I assume that will also be included in the first count.  Based on the vote in the rest of that precinct's House district, I expect Murkowski to gain about 30 votes or so.

15,272 of about 25,500 absentee, questioned and early votes may be counted today (in both primaries).

Results will be posted here.

[cinyc]

2,841 additonal votes counted:

Miller, Joe    REP    48051    50.70%
Murkowski, Lisa    REP    46726    49.30%

Miller +1,775 1,325

Miller's lead actually grew a bit.  He took the votes counted thus far 1,474-1,367 (roughly 52%-48%).

Edit: I transposed a digit when copying to Excel.  Sam is correct.

[Sam Spade]

2,841 additonal votes counted:

Miller, Joe    REP    48051    50.70%
Murkowski, Lisa    REP    46726    49.30%

Miller +1,775

Miller's lead actually grew a bit.  He took the votes counted thus far 1,474-1,367 (roughly 52%-48%).

Huh.  I thought his lead was 1,668 and it is now 1,325.  Impossible though to know anything about the extent of the ballots without knowing where they're coming from.

[Dan the Roman]

I think thats off. Going by Swingstate's numbers, he went from 47,027 to 48,051 which means Murkowski won 1367-1024.  

Out of the first 2391 votes, Murkowski won 1367 or a bit over 57%, which if it continues will bring her into the lead by around 150 votes or so. That of course is a big if.

[cinyc]

2,841 additonal votes counted:

Miller, Joe    REP    48051    50.70%
Murkowski, Lisa    REP    46726    49.30%

Miller +1,775

Miller's lead actually grew a bit.  He took the votes counted thus far 1,474-1,367 (roughly 52%-48%).

Huh.  I thought his lead was 1,668 and it is now 1,325.  Impossible though to know anything about the extent of the ballots without knowing where they're coming from.

Whoops.  I transposed the digits when copying to Excel (moved the 5).  You're correct.

[cinyc]

2,841 additonal votes counted:

Miller, Joe    REP    48051    50.70%
Murkowski, Lisa    REP    46726    49.30%

Miller +1,775

Miller's lead actually grew a bit.  He took the votes counted thus far 1,474-1,367 (roughly 52%-48%).

Huh.  I thought his lead was 1,668 and it is now 1,325.  Impossible though to know anything about the extent of the ballots without knowing where they're coming from.

We may eventually know if Alaska reposts the card count or precinct-level report.  They updated them very late on election night, but before all the votes came in.  

The real question is whether they are randomly feeding the absentees into the counting machines or counting by HD.  If by HD and they started in numerical order, Southeast Alaska would be first - and it went to Murkowski by about 57-43.  Interior District 6, Fairbanks and the Mat-Su would be next, which Miller won (HD6 and Fairbanks, by a little and the Mat-Su by a lot).

[cinyc]

ADN:

These absentees are from Districts 17 through 26, all Anchorage.

Districts 17-26 went 53-47 Murkowski.  The absentees ran about 4 points more toward her.

[tpfkaw]

How did Anchorage vote on primary night?

[cinyc]

How did Anchorage vote on primary night?

Anchorage districts 17-26 went 53-47 Murkowski.  The absentees ran about 4 points more toward her.

[tpfkaw]

If there's a uniform swing of 4 percent among the absentees, Miller holds on to his victory by a couple hundred votes.