2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

221/438 in now:

Miller, Joe                   32507   51.48%   Miller +2372
Murkowski, Lisa   30135   47.72%   

Where from?
Overall                   50.91% of Precincts Reporting

SE AK                   72.00%
Fairbanks/Interior   83.64%
Mat-Su                   64.71%
Anchorage           74.58%
Kenai/Kodiak           57.89%
Bush                     6.29%

I also just got our first cards cast report about 10 minutes ago.  It's in sucky PDF format and is going to take some time to put into something digestable.  I can tell you what precincts are in and out, and what percentage of the voters voted in those that are in.

[cinyc]

Yesss! Murkowski is making a comeback in votes.

Not that much of one, though. She still hasn't gone past the gap they started with(550).

Not on the most recent dump, which came in part from the Mat-Su Valley:

With 218/438:
Miller, Joe             32275   51.43%   Miller +2296
Murkowski, Lisa   29979   47.77%   

I'm calling it prematurely. She's done.

I'd never call a close Alaska race without significant numbers from the Bush.

First one I've ever paid attention to, so I'm learning.

There probably won't be many Republican votes there, but they may be skewed toward the incumbent.  Precinct-level data would help.

[SvenssonRS]

Well, I shall sit here and whistle patiently while waiting for the next vote dump.

[cinyc]

268/438:
Miller, Joe                   40813   51.07%   Miller +2329
Murkowski, Lisa   38484   48.16%   

Precincts Reporting Percent (Big races have caught up to House District Races):

Overall                   61.19%

SE AK                   86.00%
Fairbanks/Interior   90.91%
Mat-Su                   88.24%
Anchorage           92.37%
Kenai/Kodiak           71.05%
Bush                             6.29%

[cinyc]

The last (and only) cards counted report came out about an hour ago.  At that time, there were about 33,000 RV in the Bush precincts yet to be counted - about 17% of the total.  The overall number of RV in the Bush precincts that have yet to be counted hasn't changed much (Bush precincts haven't reported much at all) - but the percentage is no doubt higher given that much of the rest has come in a bit since then.

Not all of those RVs will vote, much less vote in the Republican primary.  But if even 10% do,
that's 3,300 potential votes right there.

For the record, I lump HD-6, which includes some Interior Alaska towns that are on the road network in with HDs 37, 38, 39 and 40 in the Bush category.  I put HDs 1-5 in the Southeast Alaska category, 7-12 in Fairbanks/Interior (includes Valdez), 13-16 in the Mat-Su Valley, 17-32 in Anchorage and 33-36 in Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak.

[cinyc]

According to the Anchorage Daily News, 7,600 of the approximately 16,000 absentee ballots were returned by Monday night - and they won't be counted until August 31.

[cinyc]

In other races, Ben Quayle will be the Republican nominee in AZ-03.  

AP called AZ-Senate-D for Glassman.

There's been no update to the Vermont numbers for hours.  Still stuck at 232/260, missing St. Albans.

[cinyc]

A more recent CARDS report was released by Alaska.  As of about 11:30 AK time, the precincts that are out are made up of 13.76% of registered voters.  Almost half of those voters are in the Bush.  20% are in the very conservative Mat-Su Valley, and 14% are in Anchorage.

We still don't have precinct or Alaska-HD level Republican primary vote data, but I think it's looking very good for Miller.  Even in the unlikely event that Murkowski wins the Bush by 3,000 votes, Miller could easily make part of the gap up in the Mat-Su.

The CARDS report was with 281/288 in.

[cinyc]

New Alaska Dump (288/438):

Miller, Joe              43458   51.32%   Miller +2880
Murkowski, Lisa   40578   47.92%   

Looks like more of the Mat-Su came in since the last CARDS report, as well as some more of the Bush:

Overall                   65.75% of Precincts In

SE AK                   86.00%
Fairbanks/Interior   90.91%
Mat-Su                   94.12%
Anchorage           97.46%
Kenai/Kodiak           73.68%
Bush                          13.99%

[SvenssonRS]

New Alaska Dump (288/438):

Miller, Joe              43458   51.32%   Miller +2880
Murkowski, Lisa   40578   47.92%   

Looks like more of the Mat-Su came in since the last CARDS report, as well as some more of the Bush:

Overall                   65.75% of Precincts In

SE AK                   86.00%
Fairbanks/Interior   90.91%
Mat-Su                   94.12%
Anchorage           97.46%
Kenai/Kodiak           73.68%
Bush                          13.99%

Looks like Bush is steadily failing to change the race. I still call Murkowski done for.

And I'm probably leaving in 20 minutes, so this is going to have to wait until tomorrow for me.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, the Florida GOP epic failed with Scott. I'm sure that a Venture Capitalist who has a history of Medicare Fraud will go over REAL WELL in Florida.

[cinyc]

Looks like Bush is steadily failing to change the race. I still call Murkowski done for.

And I'm probably leaving in 20 minutes, so this is going to have to wait until tomorrow for me.

Yeah - here's the deal.  I estimate that if turnout in the regions was the same in the precincts in and out, then, as of the last CARDS report, there were about 10,800 votes left to be tallied, going into the absentees.  Murkowski would have to win them about 70-30.  Very unlikely.  And that's based on the current tally with even more votes in than the CARDS reported and fewer to be tallied.

She's screwed.

[cinyc]

314/438:

More Mat-Su, more Anchorage,  more Kenai, more Bush.... More of a lead for Miller.

Miller, Joe               44481   51.46%   Miller +3174
Murkowski, Lisa   41307   47.79%   

Overall - 71.69% of Precincts Reporting

SE AK                   88.00%
Fairbanks/Interior   90.91%
Mat-Su                   97.06%
Anchorage           99.15%
Kenai/Kodiak           94.74%
Bush                           23.78%

Adios, Murkowski.

[SvenssonRS]

Well, that was a thrilling night. I bid adieu to Murkowski, and bid myself to bed.

A good night, Cinyc.

[cinyc]

Well, that was a thrilling night. I bid adieu to Murkowski, and bid myself to bed.

A good night, Cinyc.

According to the Anchorage Daily News, the Alaska election officials stopped counting at 12:30AM Alaska time.  These are probably the final numbers until the morning, anyway.

[redcommander]

And I am now Green. Oh well, maybe it would be best if Republicans don't win back congress. Anyway good night.

[cinyc]

I spoke a little bit too soon - one more dump, all Bush votes (now about 38% reporting).

334/438:
Miller, Joe                44,570   51.36%   Miller +3023
Murkowski, Lisa   41,547   47.88%   

Murkowski netted 151 votes in those 20 Bush precincts.  At this rate she'll need to win about 400 more Bush precincts at that margin.  There are only 143 total.

Murkowski's only hope is that the less-Alaskan Native, partially non-Bush HD-6 is a lot more in than the other Bush districts, especially the Aleutian and Bethel ones.  But it likely shouldn't matter.  They tend to vote Democratic.

The ADN now tweets the Alaksan Election officials are still up and counting.

[cinyc]

Last update for the night:

New CARDS report to match the last update.  Now, 73% of potential RVs whose votes haven't been counted are out in the Bush.    Assuming uniform Republican turnout of what's in and out in each region, there should be about 4,750 votes remaining.  Controlling for Republican turnout thus far, 61% of the expected 4,750 voters are in the Bush - though both numbers will likely be lower.
 
Murkowski needs to win the remaining votes just north of 80-20 to pull even.  Not going to happen, even with the absentees.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, okay. I wasn't expecting to wake up to Murkowski trailing.

Also, Ben Quayle? Really, AZ-03?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the Arizona Dem primary map (McCain won every county, so no point in making a Republican one):



Parraz's one county, Santa Cruz, is 80% Hispanic. And he still didn't even break 30% there.

[Sam Spade]

Well, we're now at 429/438 precincts - it's tightened up a certain bit:

Miller - 45,909 (51.09%)
Murkowski - 43,949 (48.91%)

Anyone have any idea how many absentees, etc. are left.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

16,000 absentees requested, 7,600 returned as of Monday. Those will be counted next Tuesday, and any that come in will be counted in September. Doesn't seem like it's enough to save Murkowski.

[Lunar]

Wow, okay. I wasn't expecting to wake up to Murkowski trailing.

Also, Ben Quayle? Really, AZ-03?

Same reaction here.  Young came back from a situation like this in 08 fwiw, as ssp noted

[Eraserhead]

Meek managed to get a bigger margin over Greene than McCain had over Hayworth.

[Brittain33]

Each of the three competitive AZ dems are going to lose their seats.  That is as clear as ever from the republican turnout so far in the primary.  

AZ1-30725 DEM / 55314 REP
AZ5-18230 DEM / 39687 REP
AZ8-33979 DEM / 47590 REP

A little presumptious, considering that Democrats had no primary and no reason to show up.

Huh?  They have a contested Senate primary.

Do you think it's salient that each of those seats had competitive HOUSE primaries on the Republican side, with each candidate getting out the vote, and the Democrats didn't? How much advertising did Glassman's opponent buy in each of these markets?