Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever

[R.P. McM]

Of course, there will be a GOP president after Trump because they will just cheat. I fully expect Republicans will just go full blown undemocratic.

They're certainly headed in a undemocratic, authoritarian direction. But minority rule will eventually collapse, and when it does, the GOP will pay dearly for a very long time. And then they'll reorganize around an electoral strategy that isn't predicated on stoking white resentment. Not sure when it'll happen — the example of CA certainly isn't encouraging — but I have to imagine they'll eventually regain their footing.

[R.P. McM]

Eh, between the citizenship question, voter suppression, gerrymandering, the electoral college, and the structure of the senate; they can retain power for plenty of time.

This is the only thing that makes me question the future viability of the GOP. If the Party can successfully maintain minority rule while increasingly embracing white nationalism over an extended period of time, it'll engender immense hostility. So much so that when the demographic levee eventually bursts, there'll be nothing left to grab hold of. In more specific terms, if Trump and his successors manage to harden a ~30% deficit among Millennials and Gen Z voters, then yes, there will come a time when the GOP is no longer a national party.

[R.P. McM]

2006 : Bush will be the last republican president ever
2008 : Obama has created a permanent democratic majority
2012 : The GOP is doomed unless they pass an amnesty bill
2019 : The GOP will die, Trump will be the last republican president ever and the USA will become a socialist country

2006-2018: GOP gains among Millennial and Gen Z voters: ZERO. What do y'all expect is going to happen? That old people won't die, or a ~30% deficit will reverse itself overnight? Nah, you're digging your own grave. Let's not forget that your current bases of power — the EC, the Senate, and the Supreme Court — have no democratic legitimacy.

[R.P. McM]

2006 : Bush will be the last republican president ever
2008 : Obama has created a permanent democratic majority
2012 : The GOP is doomed unless they pass an amnesty bill
2019 : The GOP will die, Trump will be the last republican president ever and the USA will become a socialist country

2006-2018: GOP gains among Millennial and Gen Z voters: ZERO. What do y'all expect is going to happen? That old people won't die, or a ~30% deficit will reverse itself overnight? Nah, you're digging your own grave. Let's not forget that your current bases of power — the EC, the Senate, and the Supreme Court — have no democratic legitimacy.

Concerning your question, I don't expect liberal millenials to suddenly become conservative but the 30% gap will likely reduce itself over the time

Obviously, the margin will fluctuate with the political climate — a future Democratic president won't hit D+30 running for reelection in a recession. Of course, by that time, she may only need D+10! The issue isn't the existence of the gap, but its magnitude and timing. Basically, at an age in which voting patterns and partisan alignments are established, Millennials entered the electorate and produced a string of results in the D+20 to D+30 range. Assuming the same propensity manifests in 2020, I think there's a large enough sample size to conclude the die is cast. Which is not to say that Republicans will never make inroads with Millennial voters, or even earn majority support in some instances. It just means that the GOP will find itself at a significant, persistent disadvantage for the foreseeable future. Something we really haven't seen since the New Deal/WWII generation.                        

just look at the Generation X, in 2006 these voters who were between 25 and 40 years old favoured Dems by 30, 12 years later these voters (who are now between 37 and 52 years old) favoured dems by a far smaller margin (people between 40 and 49 voted D 52/46).

I don't see how you get D+30 for Gen Xers in 2006. In the national/House exits, the youngest cohort, 18-29, was D+22. While that includes some Xers (26-41), it's predominantly Millennials. The next cohort, 30-44, seems more representative of Xers, and it was a relatively modest D+8. The contrast is even clearer in the 2008 exits, where the 30-44 cohort corresponds almost exactly to Gen X (28-43). The margin indicated was D+6 (52%–46%), which mirrors your assessment of the 2018 exits, but differs radically from the lopsided, heavily Millennial 18-29 cohort (D+34).

[R.P. McM]

It will be funny reading this thread in 2032 when there is a Desantis/Hawley administration and liberals are complaining about how Trump was so much better because he was lazy and did not advance a consistent anti-leftist agenda in relation to weakening the liberal elite via using the powers of the executive branch.

Regarding the issue of demographics for the GOP, as long as the GOP can achieve a 60/40/10 split with whites/hispanics/blacks it will win elections going forward for decades. If you take for example what the projected racial makeup of the electorate will be in 2032, 65% white, 15% Hispanic, 12% black and 8% other, with a 60/40/10 split and getting 40% of the 'other vote', the GOP would get 49.4% of the 2 party vote which will likely be sufficient to win an EC majority. If you just project demographic changes out and assume voting patterns stay similar to 2016 with the GOP slightly improving among Hispanics, it won't be until the 2040's that demographic change will cause any issue for the GOP's ability to win national elections.

A delusional fantasy. With the GOP consistently on the wrong side of issues younger voters care about — climate change, income inequality, gay marriage, marijuana — it's absurd to think the party will maintain the same margins among the aforementioned ethnic groups. Just look at the recent exit polls — no R+20 results among younger whites. No, even in predominantly white states — MN included — the exit polls look incredibly ominous for the GOP. People forget, but Republicans didn't used to get curb-stomped by 20-40% by the under-45 demographic. But I foresee a lot more curb-stomping for the DeSantis/Hawley, Racist/Bible-thumper party !