Hillary Clinton/Gavin Newsom vs Michelle Bachmann/Brian Sandoval

[Mister Mets]

It would be an ass-kicking. I'm using the Missouri Senate race as a model, but assuming a cycle that would otherwise be slightly more Republican leaning.

So if McCaskill won by 15 points in a year that favored Democrats, Hillary Clinton would beat Michelle Bachmann by about 10 points half the time. In Missouri.

Likely Republican...(19 electoral votes)
Utah. Wyoming. Oklahoma. Idaho. That only really conservative district in Nebraska.

Leaning Republican...(27 electoral votes)
West Virginia. Kentucky, Alabama, Most of Nebraska.

Toss-Up (Republican Advantage) (17 electoral votes)
Kansas. Tennessee.

Toss-Up (Democratic Advantage) (18 electoral votes)
North Dakota. South Dakota. Arkansas. Louisiana.

That Republican ticket would result in a strong possibility of a center-right independent bid, which would further shake things up.

Hillary Clinton might spend the majority of her time campaigning for down-ticket races.