TX HD 113: Biden +18

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1295390017318199297

[YE]

But Atlas told me Texas isn’t there yet.

[WD]

But Atlas told me Texas isn’t there yet.

Fools Gold!

[Sbane]

But Atlas told me Texas isn’t there yet.

Do bear in mind this is a district you would expect to trend away from Trump and it is also an internal. Biden might need close to a 15 point swing in a district like this in order to win the state.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

But Atlas told me Texas isn’t there yet.

Why put so much faith in campaign internals..? We've seen time and again how far off they can be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah just because Ds win Congressional seats in TX doesn't mean Trump wont carry it or Cornyn will lose. Cruz and Abbott both won TX when Ds added Congressional districts. In 2018, the states to watch out are AZ, GA runoffs and WI and NEB 2 and ME 2

[wbrocks67]

But Atlas told me Texas isn’t there yet.

Why put so much faith in campaign internals..? We've seen time and again how far off they can be.

Because literally every congressional poll from TX is telling us the same thing.

That's why even if these areas are swinging faster away from Trump, there's no way Trump +7 is statewide if tons of districts like this are swinging double digits away from him.

[YE]

But Atlas told me Texas isn’t there yet.

Why put so much faith in campaign internals..? We've seen time and again how far off they can be.

We’ve seen so many of them that indicate similar results though, and most state polling (today aside) and national polling based on UWS suggests that they aren’t terribly out of line, especially when you consider public polling tends to underestimate D’s in the state.

[DrScholl]

It was 6% more Democratic than the state in 2016 and 7% more Democratic than the state in 2018. Biden being up this much in this district is telling. We are seeing the sort of collapse that Obama saw in ancestrally Democratic areas, except this time a Republican is on the losing in.