Why did networks call PA and OH so early for Obama?
Arbitrage1980:
PA was called at poll closing and OH was closed with 11% of the votes in. Given that PA was a swing state and Kerry won it by just +2.5, seemed aggressive to call at poll closing. And Obama won OH by 4.5%, which is not a huge margin. Trump won it by 8% twice but it wasn't called until like 75% of votes were in.
OSR stands with Israel:
Well in 2020 , due to COVID the networks were far more cautious to call any state than they usually were because of the large portion of mail in/early votes cast so I dont think we should really use that as a measuring stick . So let’s just compare 2008 and 2016
- For OH vs OH the answer is pretty simple and that is the counting bias heavily favors the democrats in Ohio so Republicans even when they are winning by 8 points tons tend to take the lead until 55% of the precincts have been reported and networks don’t usually like to call battleground states when a candidate is down in them . In 2008 this was the exact opposite and Obama jumped out to a massive lead in Ohio so they had no issue calling it
- For PA , well keep in mind that states where the exits have a candidate winning by more than 10 are called instantly as the polls closed so that’s why PA was called at poll closing time
The Economy is Getting Worse:
Networks used to call much faster; for example, in 2012 Pennsylvania and NH were called by 20% reporting, despite being decided by less than 6%.
pbrower2a:
Exit polls, and Pennsylvania was going to be called as soon as Obama had a lead. Ohio counts its votes quickly, and I was astonished to hear that it was called around 9PM Eastern time.
Irenaeus of Smyrna:
Would be nice if election would be called this early again would not have to stay up all night.
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