FL PrimR: Insider Advantage: Gingrich by eight in first post-SC poll

[RI]

New Poll: Florida President by Insider Advantage on 2012-01-22

Summary:

Gingrich:	34%
Romney:	26%
Paul:	13%
Santorum:	11%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RI]

As Nate Silver notes, Insider Advantage has had very pro-Gingrich polls.

[Lief 🗽]

Looks too good to be true.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Gonna wait for a few more polls. I don't see Paul beating Santorum in Florida.

[RI]

Gonna wait for a few more polls. I don't see Paul beating Santorum in Florida.

Paul beat Santorum in most of the SC polls too, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

[TheGlobalizer]

Gonna wait for a few more polls. I don't see Paul beating Santorum in Florida.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Gonna wait for a few more polls. I don't see Paul beating Santorum in Florida.

[greenforest32]

Be gone Santorum. I banish thee

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I mean, if this holds up....the GOP is idiotic enough to vote for Gingrich in the rest of the primaries.

[Eraserhead]

I mean, if this holds up....the GOP is idiotic enough to vote for Gingrich in the rest of the primaries.

Not sure about that. But we would obviously get a total 50 state showdown... and perhaps some kind of white knight would enter the race at some point.

Gingrich is probably going to sweep the south as it stands right now.

[King]

Romney's finished.  Santorum is more likely to win Florida than he is.  Romney can't fight.  Romney can't win.

Romney is the equivalent of the player in RISK who groups up in one territory and just keeps adding armies every turn but never risking the conquer.  He looks big most of the game, but he just gets clobbered in the end.

[J. J.]

Looks too good to be true.

Which means it probably is.

[Gass3268]

Romney is the equivalent of the player in RISK who groups up in one territory and just keeps adding armies every turn but never risking the conquer.  He looks big most of the game, but he just gets clobbered in the end.

[Tender Branson]

Florida is a closed primary, right ?

That means Paul cannot count on his strong Independent support.

Which means he ends up somewhere between 10-15%, but closer to 10 I think.

Santorum is also stuck at about 15% and should drop out.

That means Romney and Gingrich have about 75% to share.

Both are running strong with old voters, and there are plenty of them in Florida.

So, currently I would say:

38% Gingrich
34% Romney
15% Santorum
12% Paul
  1% Others

[Landslide Lyndon]

Florida is a closed primary, right ?

That means Paul cannot count on his strong Independent support.

Paul has decided to skip the state altogether.

[argentarius]

Florida is a closed primary, right ?

That means Paul cannot count on his strong Independent support.

Which means he ends up somewhere between 10-15%, but closer to 10 I think.

Santorum is also stuck at about 15% and should drop out.

That means Romney and Gingrich have about 75% to share.

Both are running strong with old voters, and there are plenty of them in Florida.

So, currently I would say:

38% Gingrich
34% Romney
15% Santorum
12% Paul
  1% Others

10-15%? I'll very gladly take that.

[TheGlobalizer]

Florida is a closed primary, right ?

That means Paul cannot count on his strong Independent support.

Which means he ends up somewhere between 10-15%, but closer to 10 I think.

Santorum is also stuck at about 15% and should drop out.

That means Romney and Gingrich have about 75% to share.

Both are running strong with old voters, and there are plenty of them in Florida.

So, currently I would say:

38% Gingrich
34% Romney
15% Santorum
12% Paul
  1% Others

10-15%? I'll very gladly take that.

Yeah, me too, but I think Paul will end up more in the 6-8% range.  It's just not a libertarian state and a lot of anti-libertarian constituencies.

[Mr. Morden]

There are only 28 black respondents in this poll, but Gingrich is leading among them:

Gingrich 43%
Romney 8%
Paul 0%
Santorum 0%
someone else / no opinion 49%

Gingrich's "food stamp" talk seems to be resonating among black Republicans. 

[Alcon]

There are only 28 black respondents in this poll, but Gingrich is leading among them:

Gingrich 43%
Romney 8%
Paul 0%
Santorum 0%
someone else / no opinion 49%

Gingrich's "food stamp" talk seems to be resonating among black Republicans. 

Clearly they want a candidate that will stand up for them, and not just blah people.

[J. J.]

There are only 28 black respondents in this poll, but Gingrich is leading among them:

Gingrich 43%
Romney 8%
Paul 0%
Santorum 0%
someone else / no opinion 49%

Gingrich's "food stamp" talk seems to be resonating among black Republicans. 

Well considering my liberal black supervisor suggested at one point putting people on welfare in camps, I wouldn't be too surprised. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

There are only 28 black respondents in this poll, but Gingrich is leading among them:

Gingrich 43%
Romney 8%
Paul 0%
Santorum 0%
someone else / no opinion 49%

clearly the black jmfcsts think about the same as the white jmfcsts

[Alcon]

There are only 28 black respondents in this poll, but Gingrich is leading among them:

Gingrich 43%
Romney 8%
Paul 0%
Santorum 0%
someone else / no opinion 49%

Gingrich's "food stamp" talk seems to be resonating among black Republicans. 

Well considering my liberal black supervisor suggested at one point putting people on welfare in camps, I wouldn't be too surprised. 

Why are you so awkward?

[Lief 🗽]

There are only 28 black respondents in this poll, but Gingrich is leading among them:

Gingrich 43%
Romney 8%
Paul 0%
Santorum 0%
someone else / no opinion 49%

clearly the black jmfcsts think about the same as the white jmfcsts

But how do the Hispanic jmfctses feel? That's what I want to know.

[Eraserhead]

Uh oh....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_FL_0125.pdf

[Meeker]

Yup. The Grinch is in trouble.