Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[DINGO Joe]

On the D side, do you have to get 50+ one to avoid a runoff or is there a 40% threshold?

[ON Progressive]

On the D side, do you have to get 50+ one to avoid a runoff or is there a 40% threshold?

30% threshold on both sides.

[Drew]

NYT calls the D side for Thomas.

[Senator Incitatus]

Really exciting one on the Libertarian side, where Tim Harris leads Shannon Bray 58-50 with 47% in.

[Canis]

Here's the final map for both parties https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1123415438128553985?s=09

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's very strange to me because NC-9 isn't a Jewish district like GA6 is, but I guess whatever it takes to get elected.

That confirms my supercynical approach to politics and elections: candidates (mostly) run to win, not to make some policy changes. Win at almost every possible price, victory being valuable enpugh by itself...

Of course. Why do you think Lujan flip-flopped on Omar?

Err...he didn’t.  Lujan simply condemned the folks making death threats against her.  Speaking from my own personal experience, it’s easy to do that while also considering her a vicious anti-Semite who was sickeningly dismissive of the 9/11 attacks and deserves to be expelled from the Democratic Caucus.  Even if someone is pond scum like Omar, that doesn’t mean it’s okay for people to make death treats against them.

[The Mikado]

NC-09 is up.

[Tender Branson]

It looks as if Dan Bishop is the heavy favourite in the GOP primary on May 14 and could avoid a runoff, according to a new PPP poll for NC-09:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yg57c_at8pycldd3E63cK533M4G7S2Xz/view

That would mean a battle of the Dans on Sept. 10th - together with the NC-03 general election.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm hoping that the GOP primary goes to a runoff, because otherwise I won't be able to watch the general election live. In early September, I'm going on a camping trip that will overlap with September 10.

[Skunk]

Dan Bishop would instantly become my least favorite Congressman should he win both the primary and the general. Disgusting.

[HarrisonL]

I honestly think Bishop will win the primary and beat McCready. The special will be in September, therefore it will be a very good indicator of how the 2019 Elections will go.

[Tender Branson]

Another poll confirms that Bishop is far ahead and very likely to avoid a runoff:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-9a13-d399-afef-9a9330870000

[ctherainbow]

After former 12th District Representative Tom Marino stepped down earlier this year, a special election was called for the district, for May 12th.  The matchup is 2018 district challenger Marc Friedenberg, a Penn State cybersecurity professor from Centre County, vs Fred Keller, PA House Rep for the 85th District, which covers portions of Snyder and Union counties.

The 12th is PA's third most Republican district, and the odds of the seat flipping are tiny.  That said, watch the margins; in 2018, Friedenberg was blown out by incumbent Tom Marino in a nearly 2-1 defeat(66%-34%/161,047-82,825).  This election will be the most widespread new non-polling data set we have in PA before 2020, barring unforeseen circumstances, and though it's a largely rural area that's not usually competitive, a significant partisan swing in this district could point to Pennsylvania continuing to come back left after the 2016 surprise.  

Trigger warning - anecdotal evidence/first-hand experiences:

I volunteered for Marc's campaign in 2018, and have been in the run-up to this special election as well.  I have to say that compared to 2018, the ground game is incredibly strong this cycle, with canvassing teams in my county(Susquehanna) covering about three times the number of locations that were targeted last cycle.  Marc's strong in the southern part of the district, especially Centre County, but this cycle they've been focusing more heavily on the more rural northern portions of the district, even canvassing out in places like Potter County(if you're from PA, you know about Potter County; if you're not, think Alabama but cold  ).  So I fully expect the margins to come down at least a few points towards Marc, but if he manages to drag Keller significantly below 60%, I think 2020 Republicans need to be a bit more worried about pulling off a 2016 PA repeat than they already are.

So what do you guys think?  Am I delusional?  Will Snyder County small-business icon Fred Keller curbstomp far-left techie firebrand Marc Friedenberg with 85% of the vote?  Will secret rural Democratic voters rise from the slumber they've been in since the last time this district elected a Dem(2008) to #MakePennsylvaniaBlueAgain?  Discuss.

[smoltchanov]

What i expect? Low turnout and fairly standard for this district result: about 65-35 Republican.

[ctherainbow]

What i expect? Low turnout and fairly standard for this district result: about 65-35 Republican.

This is definitely 100% possible.  I'm thinking(perhaps too optimistically) that it might be closer to 60-40 Republican, based on the ground game improvements I've seen+it being a special(though it also coincides with local elections, so that will likely lessen the "special effect")+loss of Marino's incumbency/name recognition, but who knows.  Rural Pennsylvania gonna rural Pennsylvania.    

[smoltchanov]

What i expect? Low turnout and fairly standard for this district result: about 65-35 Republican.

This is definitely 100% possible.  I'm thinking(perhaps too optimistically) that it might be closer to 60-40 Republican, based on the ground game improvements I've seen+it being a special(though it also coincides with local elections, so that will likely lessen the "special effect")+loss of Marino's incumbency/name recognition, but who knows.  Rural Pennsylvania gonna rural Pennsylvania.    

An old saying: Pennsylvania is a Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and ... Alabama between them, comes to mind...)))

[ctherainbow]

An old saing: Pennsylvania is a Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and ... Alabama between them, comes to mind...)))

That saying comes to mind far too often for me when watching local politics.   

It's also common to hear the stretch of PA between Philly and Pitt referred to as "Pennsyltucky".   

[Frenchrepublican]

It’s a special election so it’s easy to imagine some weird results (like KS 4th in 2017 or SC 5th in 2017), generally speaking I don’t try to predict results for low turnout special elections but I could see everything from a 60/40 republican victory to a 70/30 republican win, but it’s interesting to note that since November 2018 Dems have generally not overperformed that much in special elections

[Oryxslayer]

It’s a special election so it’s easy to imagine some weird results (like KS 4th in 2017 or SC 5th in 2017), generally speaking I don’t try to predict results for low turnout special elections but I could see everything from a 60/40 republican victory to a 70/30 republican win, but it’s interesting to note that since November 2018 Dems have generally not overperformed that much in special elections

The special election story has certainly got more complicated: pre-2018 it was a case of everyone swinging towards the dems. Excluding the weird CT, it now appears to be a case of constituency type. Suburban and (non-minority) dem areas are continuing to march left, whereas that WWC/Conservative Smalltown/Rural areas are resisting. If this continue on to PA12, we will likely see a Dem surge in Centre, but very limited movement in the rest of the seat.

One interesting thing is that the PA special, and regular elections since 2016 have diverged from the other Obama->Trump states. The PA State house reelected some, but not all, of their dems in old Dem seat that now are ruby read. Lamb of course came from the southwest of the state. The 2019 specials have continued the trend with dems winning a Suburban Pittsburg weak trump seat and a strong Obama->weak Clinton seat in the Wyoming valley by shocking margins. Maybe there is something in the water here, but like I said, the story has got a lot more complicated. So maybe the dems can manage ~40%.

[Tender Branson]

The NC-09 GOP primary is today (candidates from the other parties like McCready (D) are unopposed, so there will probably be no primary for them).

This is the one which has to be repeated because of GOP absentee ballot fraud:

In a hotly contested primary, 10 Republicans are vying for a spot on the ballot in the country’s final undetermined midterm congressional race. Republicans have represented the Ninth Congressional District since 1963, and have expressed frustration and embarrassment by how the fleeting victory of Mark Harris in November unraveled after the revelation that his campaign financed an illicit voter-turnout effort.

Under North Carolina law, if no candidate secures more than 30 percent of the vote, the top two finishers in tonight’s primary will face off in a run-off in September. Otherwise, the general election is scheduled for Sept. 10. Dan McCready, who lost in November to Mr. Harris by 905 votes, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/us/politics/north-carolina-republican-primary.html

NYT results page:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/14/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-9-primary.html

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Dan Bishop would instantly become my least favorite Congressman should he win both the primary and the general. Disgusting.

This, which is exactly why I expect him to win.

[smoltchanov]

Dan Bishop would instantly become my least favorite Congressman should he win both the primary and the general. Disgusting.

This, which is exactly why I expect him to win.

What if he wins general?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Dan Bishop would instantly become my least favorite Congressman should he win both the primary and the general. Disgusting.

This, which is exactly why I expect him to win.

What if he wins general?

That's what I meant--I expect him to win both the primary and the general because we live in hell world and Climbing Dan will be president ten years from now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
4,372   43.2%
Stony Rushing
2,062   20.4
Matthew Ridenhour
1,434   14.2
Leigh Brown
825   8.1
Kathie Day
295   2.9
Chris Anglin
292   2.9
Gary Dunn
275   2.7
Fern Shubert
238   2.3
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
203   2.0
Albert Wiley
136   1.3
10,132 votes, 5% reporting (11 of 210 precincts)

[Xing]

I'd still rate the special a Toss-Up, but I'll admit that I don't have a great feeling about it.