NJ-07 GOP sparring heats up

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/new_jersey/20080416_ap_7thdistrictrepublicansclashoveradsandethics.html

Democrat Linda Stender has over $250k more in COH than do her two Republican foes combined. Obviously, every dollar Lance and Whitman spend against each other is one dollar that wasn't spend on a negative ad sliming Stender the Spender.

[MarkWarner08]

Fortunately for Lance and Whitman (hell, who are we kidding—fortunately for Lance), Stender's negatives are already high thanks to Mike Ferguson launching $3,000,000 worth of poison her way in 2006.

This may be true, but high negatives don't appear to be an obstacle for Democrats seeking office in N.J., and she did extremely well in '06 even with that.

High Dem negatives should prove a problem in historically Republican NJ-07.  I do know that Lance's internal polling has him ahead of Stender by double digits (Whitman is ahead by single digits), and since Lance is not well known throughout the eastern part of the district, one can only assume that he does well on the basis of Stender's negatives and a simple GOP vote advantage here.

Are her negatives higher than her positives?

I remember reading somewhere that Stender trailed by 20 points before September. It seems that she didn't close to within single digits till after the Mark Foley fiasco.

[MarkWarner08]

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Exactly. Don't forget that the NRCC is practically insolvent. In 2006, the NRCC outspent the DCCC on IEs by $20 million. This cycle, the feckless NRCC chairmen will be lucky if his group spends all of $20 million on IEs.

[MarkWarner08]

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.

Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.