2011 French Senate Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

Elections will be held in France on September 25, to renew half of the country's Senate (upper house). French Senators are elected in each departement, by an "electoral college" composed by 95% of municipal delegates. Every 3 years, half of departements are up for reelection (so that a Senate term lasts 6 terms overall). The renewed departements are the light-shaded ones in this map :



Even though the Senate has always been held by the right (or the center) since its creation in 1876, the left has made considerable gains with the 2004 and 2008 elections, mostly thanks to their excellent results in the various local elections held since this date.

Currently, left-wing parties hold 152 of the 341 senate seats, against 179 for the right (10 seats are occupied by centrists). After this month, there will be 348, so 175 will be needed to reach absolute majority. The left needs to gain 23 seats to take over the House. Considering they gained 21 in 2008, it means for the first time Senate majority is at stake. That's why there are so much talks about elections which are usually ignored by the medias.

Waiting for the results of this historical event, we can use this thread to discuss about the situation in various departements, follow the news and make predictions about the results (even though personally I'll refrain from that due to my ignorance ; obviously I'm talking about Fabien, Hash and maybe Benoît ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

After reading Fab's comment, I'd bet on a deadlocked Senate, without an absolute majority but with a left plurality. Of course that's a clueless prediction, but what I'm sure about is that the right won't retain its majority. Still, since these are indirect elections, we really can't be sure of anything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who are allowed to vote (e.g. Paris)?

Overal, around 70.000 people, 95% of them being representatives of municipalities, the other being general/regional councilors and MPs.

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The parties, like for everything else. There is obviously no primary. There are, however, a lot of "dissident lists", in departements where a party didn't manage to please all the bigwigs.

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I think you must be over 30 or 35, otherwise don't know.

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I think it's likely, yes. I don't really know how it works, but since around 40% of the electoral college hasn't any partisan affiliation (mostly little town representatives), personal affinities, influence networks and traditions matter a lot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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I think you must be over 30 or 35, otherwise don't know.

Law was changed, it is 24 now. Anybody who is able to find enough candidates can run. There is no joke candidaties because it is quite humiliating if you receive no votes, I suppose.

Really ? Laudable effort to make younger what is mostly a rest-home for "has-been" politicians. Obviously that won't make the median age go below 60.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, keeping on the "radical" tradition of Senate would make sense, of course. And anyways, the Presidency is a symbolic office which matters only for a side to claim victory in the medias.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's just hope that won't lead to divisions...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tomorrow is the "grand jour".

I'll be crossing finger, because if the left wins this will be a historic moment - maybe even more important than 2012 presidential and legislatives.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anybody interested in a brief, uneducated department-by-department overview?

*raises hand frenetically*

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll try to do soon. Err, too late...

Before then, a technical question : what criterion did you use to classify senators among the right or among the left ? For example, what do you do with the RDSE group ? Wikipedia breaks it down into left-wing and right-wing members, I don't know if you proceed the same way or rather give it all to the left.

Anyways, according to you classification, the breakdown of this series is 93-70 for the right. It must become 93-77 for the left in order for it to win a majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, Hash has predicted a minimum gain of 18 for the left, but with a maximum loss of 4, which would translate into a net gain of 14 (if I did the numbers right).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, Hash has predicted a minimum gain of 18 for the left, but with a maximum loss of 4, which would translate into a net gain of 14 (if I did the numbers right).

That 18 includes the four losses (even if I'm not convinced than there will be 4 losses.).

Well, I miscounted. Very good to know.

If the range is 18-28, that means the odds of a left-wing majority are around 50%.

Still interested in knowing how you proceded for grouping, Hash.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll try to do soon. Err, too late...

Before then, a technical question : what criterion did you use to classify senators among the right or among the left ? For example, what do you do with the RDSE group ? Wikipedia breaks it down into left-wing and right-wing members, I don't know if you proceed the same way or rather give it all to the left.

Anyways, according to you classification, the breakdown of this series is 93-70 for the right. It must become 93-77 for the left in order for it to win a majority.

The right-wing RDSE members in Jura, SPM, Guadeloupe so forth are counted as 'right'. All MoDems are counted as 'right'.

That makes sense, and apparently corresponds to Wikipedia's classification.

A technical question : when exactly will we know the results ? I feel really excited.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Welcome to the forum Andrea. And thank you for posting all these results. Do you know where I can find them directly ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've found it, thank you.

So it's basically a tie in Lozère, wow !

For the record, here's the link : http://www.senat.fr/senatoriales_2011.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Senate website hasn't any new results up so far...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where do you see the results ? The Senate site hasn't been updated for a while...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently 1st round is up in every FPP département except Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Manche. And 3/4 DTOMs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guadeloupe, Martinique and SP&M still not in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The mayor of Saint-Pierre won Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 20 to 17 against former député Gérard Grignon.

The incumbent, Denis Detcheverry had no votes!

This is the kind of things you can see only in indirect elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How are the French Abroad seats worked out?

They are elected by the Assembly of French Abroad (Assemblée des français de l'étranger) which is apparently elected by the people in question.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Senate website now lagging...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So now, we have the results for all the PR départements. 2nd round in FPP ones is now coming.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time for a recapitulative tab !

Départ.	Results	Left gain
Ind&L	3-0	+1
Isère	3-2	+1
Jura	0-2	NC
Landes	2-0	NC
L&Ch	1-1	+1
Loire	3-1	+1
Hte L	0-2	NC
L At	3-2	+1
Loiret	1-2	NC
Lot	2-0	NC
Lo&G	1-1	+1
Lozère	1-0	+1
M&L	2-2	+1
Manche	1-2	NC
Marne	0-3	NC
Hte Mar	0-2	NC
Mayenne	0-2	NC
M&M	2-2	NC
Meuse	0-2	NC
Morbihan	3-0	+2
Moselle	2-3	-1
Nièvre	2-0	NC
Nord	7-4	+1
Oise	2-2	+1
Orne	0-2	NC
PdC	5-2	+1
PdD	3-0	+1
Pyr-Atl	2-1	+1
Hts Pyr	2-0	NC
Pyr-Or	1-1	+1
Paris	8-4	+1
S&M	3-3	NC
Yvelines	2-4	+1
Essonne	3-2	NC
HdS	3-4	+1
SSD	4-2	NC
VdM	4-2	+1
VdO	3-2	NC
Guade	N/A
Martin	N/A
Réunion	2-2	+1
Mayotte	1-1	+1
Nv Cal	0-2	NC
SP&M	1-0	+1
Fr. Et.	2-4	+1
Total	90-75	+20

[Antonio the Sixth]

The actual gain for the left is 23 (ie exactly the number they need to win a majority), but I'm waiting for the numbers in Guadeloupe and Martinique. The left currently holds 3 seats, and is unlikely to lose any. If Hash is right, they'll gain one or two.

As far as I know, it's over. The left has won, and by winning they made history. 135 years of conservative dominance end today.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.