2011 French Senate Election

[MaxQue]

I thought than Badinter was retiring, no?

[MaxQue]

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I think you must be over 30 or 35, otherwise don't know.

Law was changed, it is 24 now. Anybody who is able to find enough candidates can run. There is no joke candidaties because it is quite humiliating if you receive no votes, I suppose.

[MaxQue]

I counted 18 to 28, so, you didn't messed up.

So, left needs a good day to win control of Senate.

[MaxQue]

Actually, Hash has predicted a minimum gain of 18 for the left, but with a maximum loss of 4, which would translate into a net gain of 14 (if I did the numbers right).

That 18 includes the four losses (even if I'm not convinced than there will be 4 losses.).

[MaxQue]

Ouest-France says for Morbihan:

Hervieux is reelected by the first round.

The two other left candidates are leading the right-wing ones (!!??!!).

[MaxQue]

Wow, Morbihan. Never expected that.

Well, it confirm than Morbihan isn't immunised to the swing to the left of Breitz.

[MaxQue]

Apparently 1st round is up in every FPP département except Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Manche. And 3/4 DTOMs.

Now all in.

The PS seat in Manche looks gone.
In Pyrénées-Atlantiques, UMP Castaings doesn't stand a chance (under 10%), the PS incumbent trails the other 2 PS candidates. So there can be a +1 for the Left but with the incumbent losing out.

2 of the 4 Left seats potentially in danger have been saved. 1 looks indeed lost while we wait for the 4th departmennt.

Manche: PS is third, he still can win. Hard, but possible. Some rural mayors may want to have someone in the possible left majoriry.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques: We don't know, there is a lot of EELV-regionalist-communist vote lost in first round which can help the PS.

[MaxQue]

Bad news for the left.

Réunion wasn't 2 PCR, 1 PS, 1 UMP as predicted, but 1 PCR, 1 PS, 2 UMP.

UMP 36,5%, 2 élus
PCR 24,7% 1 élu
PS 23,6% 1 élu
MAJ 13,5%
EELV 1,3%
Front de la gauche antilibérale 0,25%
Liste commune multi-parti 0,08% (1 vote)
Ensemble pour la Réunion 0 vote

[MaxQue]

The mayor of Saint-Pierre won Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 20 to 17 against former député Gérard Grignon.

The incumbent, Denis Detcheverry had no votes!

[MaxQue]

Either  Detcheverry raped the wives of every grand elector or he passed some backroom deal with Grignon to prevent the socialist from winning.

Note to my internet service provider: next time you cut my internet on an election day, I'll call Steve Harper to complain.

From what I read, he was hated on the island. He wasn't even named as a delegate by its municipal council and its suppléant is now the suppléant of Clairaux.

Apparently, during last election he promised to not sit with UMP group.

[MaxQue]

In Lozère, Bertrand beats Blanc 173-169.
So, PS gain Lozère.

And the left finally win the three seats in Morbihan, out of nowhere, literraly nobody predicted that.

[MaxQue]

Godefroy (PS, Manche) somehow managed to be reelected because a DVD candidate decided to run in second round.

He wins by 12 votes on Valentin, a UMP candidate.

[MaxQue]

In Pyrénées-Atlnatique, results are PS 2, Modem 1.
PS incumbent is defeated.

In Haute-Marne, Sido-UMP beats Maillot-PS 52-48.
Haute-Marne shouldn't be that close.

[MaxQue]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

[MaxQue]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

You mean Indre-et-Loire ? or Loire ? or Loir-et-Cher ?

Morbihan is a perfect example of the French right, which was once called "the stupidest right in the world", for its ability to kill herself by divisions.
And its inability to push new faces...

But Paris, Seine-et-Marne (brilliant Jégo !!!) and Hauts-de-Seine are "great" examples too...

In Loir-et-Cher, the MoDem has clearly killed Leroy...

In Manche, Valentin was a real bad candidate: a nasty guy, prone to shenanigans and proud of himself.

Loiret. I didn't thought than Sueur could save his seat so easily. Loir-et-Cher is not surprising, Leroy was campaigning in a way which let people see than he was worried. Indre-et-Loire isn't surprising, I suspected a good night for left would lead to 3-0. The margin is impressing the Loire, but 3-1 isn't so much given than the right had dreadful results there in 2008.

There was no divisions in Morbihan.

[MaxQue]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

You mean Indre-et-Loire ? or Loire ? or Loir-et-Cher ?

Morbihan is a perfect example of the French right, which was once called "the stupidest right in the world", for its ability to kill herself by divisions.
And its inability to push new faces...

But Paris, Seine-et-Marne (brilliant Jégo !!!) and Hauts-de-Seine are "great" examples too...

In Loir-et-Cher, the MoDem has clearly killed Leroy...

In Manche, Valentin was a real bad candidate: a nasty guy, prone to shenanigans and proud of himself.

Loiret. I didn't thought than Sueur could save his seat so easily. Loir-et-Cher is not surprising, Leroy was campaigning in a way which let people see than he was worried. Indre-et-Loire isn't surprising, I suspected a good night for left would lead to 3-0. The margin is impressing the Loire, but 3-1 isn't so much given than the right had dreadful results there in 2008.

There was no divisions in Morbihan.

No OPEN divisions, sure
Believe me, the right in Morbihan is full of infightings, with a former hysteric Villepinist (Goulard), a stupid young hopeful (Guéant's son), old barons with weird habits (Rohan), too kind moderates (Kerguéris), many disappointed rural mayors, etc.
A real mess, with no real hope for the future.
A right from the Prehistoric Ages

Well, I think Morbihan is going the way of the rest of the Bretagne. Becoming a place with a Socialist lean.

No reason why, but, it is like that, I think.

[MaxQue]

Sure, but divisions hasten things.

All the coast is more and more "bobo" and with people who are ready to vote for centre-left or even Greens (even if their houses are built on natural areas ).
And rural areas are desperate and disappointed by the right.

Morbihan, like Mayenne (yep !) or Calvados (it's almost done there), are the next departments to fall in favour of the left.

So, my theory than I exposed during Cantonales (than the former north/south divide will become an west/east divide) may realize?

[MaxQue]

Christian Estrosi, former minister and currently député and mayor of Nice, UMP said than the right is losing local elections because Sarkozy is focused on keeping the France AAA credit note.

He is dumb on purpose or he is always like that?

[MaxQue]

Antonio, Sarkozy has apparently asked to Larcher to not do that.
The left had claimed very quickly its victory.
Them losing would would have looked as a backdoor deal, which voters wouldn't like.