2011 French Senate Election

[MaxQue]

Apparently 1st round is up in every FPP département except Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Manche. And 3/4 DTOMs.

Now all in.

The PS seat in Manche looks gone.
In Pyrénées-Atlantiques, UMP Castaings doesn't stand a chance (under 10%), the PS incumbent trails the other 2 PS candidates. So there can be a +1 for the Left but with the incumbent losing out.

2 of the 4 Left seats potentially in danger have been saved. 1 looks indeed lost while we wait for the 4th departmennt.

Manche: PS is third, he still can win. Hard, but possible. Some rural mayors may want to have someone in the possible left majoriry.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques: We don't know, there is a lot of EELV-regionalist-communist vote lost in first round which can help the PS.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh sorry, I didn't realize there were 2 different names and so I thought it was his username. I didn't want to cause offences

None taken, of course

Btw, associating posters with their avatars may be confusing as well. For example, I'm definitively not a Republican from D.C.

[MaxQue]

Bad news for the left.

Réunion wasn't 2 PCR, 1 PS, 1 UMP as predicted, but 1 PCR, 1 PS, 2 UMP.

UMP 36,5%, 2 élus
PCR 24,7% 1 élu
PS 23,6% 1 élu
MAJ 13,5%
EELV 1,3%
Front de la gauche antilibérale 0,25%
Liste commune multi-parti 0,08% (1 vote)
Ensemble pour la Réunion 0 vote

[MaxQue]

The mayor of Saint-Pierre won Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 20 to 17 against former député Gérard Grignon.

The incumbent, Denis Detcheverry had no votes!

[Antonio the Sixth]

The mayor of Saint-Pierre won Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 20 to 17 against former député Gérard Grignon.

The incumbent, Denis Detcheverry had no votes!

This is the kind of things you can see only in indirect elections.

[Hash]

Either  Detcheverry raped the wives of every grand elector or he passed some backroom deal with Grignon to prevent the socialist from winning.

Note to my internet service provider: next time you cut my internet on an election day, I'll call Steve Harper to complain.

[big bad fab]

Alduy is already bad news for the right. Morbihan too.

Don't judge on Réunion or SP&M... I have a bad feeling for the right.
Probably th effect of the reform of taxe professionnelle and the decrease in State financial aids.

[Andrea]

4 Right 2 Left among French Abroad

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How are the French Abroad seats worked out?

[MaxQue]

Either  Detcheverry raped the wives of every grand elector or he passed some backroom deal with Grignon to prevent the socialist from winning.

Note to my internet service provider: next time you cut my internet on an election day, I'll call Steve Harper to complain.

From what I read, he was hated on the island. He wasn't even named as a delegate by its municipal council and its suppléant is now the suppléant of Clairaux.

Apparently, during last election he promised to not sit with UMP group.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How are the French Abroad seats worked out?

They are elected by the Assembly of French Abroad (Assemblée des français de l'étranger) which is apparently elected by the people in question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How are the French Abroad seats worked out?

They are elected by the Assembly of French Abroad (Assemblée des français de l'étranger) which is apparently elected by the people in question.

Sounds like quite the gravy train.

[Hash]

All non-PR departments are in:

Indre-et-Loire: the left in good position to gain one seat to make it 3-0 (+1)

Jura: TCTC between Barbier and a leftie for the second seat it seems (potential +1)

Landes: booooring

Loir-et-Cher: Bayrou's twat reelected, PS likely to pick up one seat with Leroy struggling but not out yet (potential +1)

Haute-Loire: nothing to see

Loiret: well, yeah, never trust UMP rumours again. The PS incumbent reelected easily. UMP in good shape to hold 2 other seats.

Lot: PS-PRG landslide

Lot-et-Garonne: Camani (PS) in good shape, Tandonnet (NC) likely to get the second seat (+1)

Lozère: In 1998, Jacques Blanc was elected to the regional presidency with FN votes. Today, with 169 votes, he has exactly half of all votes and one more than the Socialist. The FN has one vote. If he wins that guy, he wins - with FN support. If the FN dude votes leftie, then Blanc still wins because he's older. (unlikely +1)

Manche: Godefroy (PS) struggling, but not entirely out imo. (potential -1)

Marne: two centrists reelected, UMP will take the other seat.

Haute-Marne: UMP to win second seat.

Mayenne: The centrist twins will win

Meuse: Namy (UMP) to take second seat

Morbihan: Herviaux (PS) reelected. PCF and Green candidate third and second respectively. Le Nay (UMP) is fourth close behind the Communist. Goulard and Kergueris tied for fifth. Looking very bad for the right. Shocker of the night. +2 for the left or at least +1

Nievre: booring

Orne: right is doing fine

Puy-de-Dome: PS incumbent will win, other two PS also doing well. Gouttebel (DVG) doing surprisingly poorly.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques: Labazée (PS) will win, Lasserre (MoDem) on track too, Jarraud-Vergnolle  (PS) could take third seat. +1 for the left

Hautes-Pyrénées: only the Rad elected outright by the first round, the PS will be elected on the second round.

Pyrénées-Orientales: Bourquin (DVG) elected, Alduy (UMP) trails Calvet (UMP) for the second seat. +1 left

Reunion: 2 UMP, 1 PCR, 1 PS. +1 for the left.

Mayotte: tctc

French abroad: UMP 4, PS 2. Left +1

New Caledonia: Right wins the new seat, so right +1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do the totals look like?

[Andrea]

Some early reports/rumours on twitter

Pas de Calais: 4 PS 1 PC 2 UMP . +1 PS

Paris almost over: gauche 8 UMP 2 centre pozzo 1 charron 1

Nantes: 1 UMP, 1 NC, 3 Left

Moselle: Masson 1 siège, Leroy 1 siège et grosdidier 1 siège.

Seine-et-Marne: 3 Left (so I suppose 3 Right)

Hauts Seine: PS 3 sièges // UMP (officiel) 2 sièges // Gautier (UMP) 1 siège // NC (Hervé Marseille) 1 siège (from a NC activist who says "à confirmer/to be confirmed" though)

Resultat en Loire-Atlantique : 2 PS, 1 EELV , 1 UMP, 1 NC

[Hash]

Rumours say that in the 92, Gautier's dissident list is beating Karoutchi-Balkany's official list.

[Hash]

Maine-et-Loire:

PS list 37.91 > 2
UMP list 30.94 > 2
NC list 13.93

+1 left

[Andrea]

1 Left gain in Val de Marne and 1 in Isère (Saugey and Savin for Right)

[Hash]

93 seems like 2 PS, 1 PCF, 1 EELV vs. 1 UMP, 1 NC. So no change here.

Isere seems like 2 PS, 1 PCF vs. 1 UMP and 1 UMP-dissident. So +1 for the left (new seat)

[Hash]

Loire-Atlantique:

Left 49.82% > 3
UMP 25.46% > 1
NC 18.05% > 1

+1 left

[Andrea]

Nord: 4 PS, 2 PC, 1 Vert, Lecerf, Legendre, Turk and Letard
37.68% for PS/Verts list,  Lecerf/Letard 18,34%, PC 15.11%, Turk 10.35%, Legendre 9.67%

2 Left (40.62%), 2 Right (54,86%) in Oise.

Meurthe-et-Moselle: 43.24% Left (2) Nachbar 36.22% Husson 18.34 %

No Left gain in Seine Saint Denis. PC lost its second seat to PS/Vert

1 Left gain in Loire

[Andrea]

Socialist gain Lozère by 4 votes according to Public Senat

UMP hold one of their seats in Mayotte. UMP Incumbent Soibahadine Ibrahim Ramadani is defeated. DVG Thani Mohamed Soilihi gains the other seat.

3 Left 3 Right in Seine et Marne. So Left gain

Serge Dassault is re-elected by a small margin (9 votes)

[Hash]

Paris

Left 61.22% > 8
Jouanno UMP 22.9% > 2
Charon UMP 7.98% > 1
NC 7.65% > 1

[Hash]

Hauts-de-Seine:

Left 30.91% > 3
UMP 23.24% > 2
Gautier 19.36% > 1
NC 13.78% > 1
MoDem 9.61%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Senate website now lagging...