The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,660
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
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« on: October 22, 2012, 07:30:29 PM » |
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« edited: October 22, 2012, 07:49:07 PM by The Vorlon »
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Folks backing Romney are optimistic for the following reasons:
1) Obama has very rarely broken 50% in any national poll. I thik there was a National Public Radio Poll and maybe a Zogby or two, but under 50% is the traditional "vulnerable incumbent" dividing line.
2) Obama was clearly ahead, it is now very very close to even. It's a bit of a dogs breakfast on both sides but I think I trust the polls showing a modest Romney lead just a tiny bit more than those showing a modest Obama lead.
3) A presidential reelection bid is, first and foremost, a referendum on the incumbent. Obama did not win this question (see Reagan 1984, Clinton 1996) if he hasn't convinced 50% of the people to vote for him in 4 years, why will he suddenly do it in the last 14 days?
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FWIW....
I think Obama is very narrowly ahead, it will be a hell of a long night on Election day!
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