Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[politicallefty]

It seems fair to say that Quebec will decide whether or not the Liberals get a majority.

[politicallefty]

CTV projects a Liberal win.

As does the CBC.

[politicallefty]

Just my $.02, but I think if these numbers hold, it's a Liberal Majority.

[politicallefty]

Liberals hit 170.

And that's with very little reporting from BC.

[politicallefty]

Liberals are sweeping Toronto, even leading the NDP in Toronto-Danforth.

[politicallefty]

How do I watch the results on TV?

Try C-SPAN2.

[politicallefty]

I had a feeling there was momentum towards a Liberal Majority, but I didn't want to go out on that limb for a prediction. I think what's even more stunning is the collapse of the NDP. They're back to their pre-2011 levels. Wow.

[politicallefty]

It looks like the Liberals will have a rather impressive four seats from Alberta (including Calgary for the first time since 1968): Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Skyview, and Calgary Centre.

I think one of the most stunning displays of the Liberal wave and the NDP collapse was Toronto, where the sweep was complete in turning even Toronto-Danforth red.

[politicallefty]

If there's one area I think the NDP can some solace, it's that they held up pretty well in Western Canada. With it apparently being their best province this election, the NDP vote in BC seems to have gotten quite efficient (quite the opposite of the Tories). Even accounting for redistribution, they had a net gain of seats in the West. One of their problems though is that Alberta is basically a zero-sum game for the left. So long as a united Conservative Party is being led by an Albertan leader, there isn't much room in the province for both Liberal and NDP gains.

I'm sure I'm not the first to notice it, but this election seems to be a bit of cycle in terms of both popular vote and seat count where third is now first, first is now second, and second is now third in almost the same proportions.

Alberta ...

It really does stick out like a sore thumb. But the Liberals winning four seats in the province is quite an accomplishment, especially considering two of them are in Calgary (the first Liberal win there since Pierre Trudeau won his first mandate in '68).

[politicallefty]

I actually do have one question that's sort of been gnawing at my mind for a good portion of the campaign. What exactly drove down the Tory vote in BC? They seem to have recovered a bit from their worst polling numbers that were in the low-to-mid 20s, but nonetheless ended up third in the seat count with just 10 seats. It's not like BC has any historic love for the federal Liberals like Atlantic Canada. Was there a particular issue? Are green politics really that salient in BC?