Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1494162257655345153?s=20&t=396ywKAGDEETpzLZ...

Ukraine and the Russians have always shelled each other.

Like I said before, this is a nothingburger.

[BigSerg]

My pro-Russian sources have told me that today is important, lots of disturbing news. Don't sleep tonight

February 16-17: separatists and Ukrainian armed forces began clashes with banned weapons (155 mm shells) for more than 24 hours.

February 17: Separatist republics announce mass evacuations of children, women and the elderly and call on "all men to take up arms".

February 18: Evacuees began to arrive in the Russian region of Rostov and a car bomb exploded in front of the administrative buildings of the Donetsk republic.

[KaiserDave]

Nobody cares about your sources BigSerg. Get a life. If Russia attacks, we all know you will be gleefully pleased with the resulting deaths, no need to re-emphasize.

[TheReckoning]

My pro-Russian sources have told me that today is important, lots of disturbing news. Don't sleep tonight

Considering this is your POV, you mean Russia doesn’t invade?

[Crumpets]

The top headline on RIA right now is "The LNR [Lukhansk separatists] reported a significant aggravation of the situation on the contact line." Meanwhile, IntelDoge on Twitter is reporting that people saying they live in Donetsk on Discord and Telegram are reporting the sounds of explosions.

Of course:
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1494199634180415489

Now, I think it's extremely unlikely this means an invasion is starting or even imminent. I think what is probably happening is that the Kremlin knows the clock is ticking if it wants to do anything on a grand scale and they need to get their justification out of the way so they can say "go" whenever it best suits them if they so choose, whether that be tomorrow, a few days from now, or next week. Alternately, they can still de-escalate if they choose. It's just one more roadblock out of the way for a hypothetical major escalation.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The top headline on RIA right now is "The LNR reported a significant aggravation of the situation on the contact line." Meanwhile, IntelDoge on Twitter is reporting that people saying they live in Donetsk on Discord and Telegram are reporting the sounds of explosions.

Of course:
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1494199634180415489

Now, I think it's extremely unlikely this means an invasion is starting or even imminent. I think what is probably happening is that the Kremlin knows the clock is ticking if it wants to do anything on a grand scale and they need to get their justification out of the way so they can say "go" whenever it best suits them if they so choose, whether that be tomorrow, a few days from now, or next week. Alternately, they can still de-escalate if they choose. It's just one more roadblock out of the way for a hypothetical major escalation.

Along similar lines:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1494176076842651656
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1494173032360947713

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

[BigSerg]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

The news is worse than I expected, I have yet to see more, but... this looks very bad.

[Continential]

My pro-Russian sources have told me that today is important, lots of disturbing news. Don't sleep tonight

Considering this is your POV, you mean Russia doesn’t invade?

My guess it means disturbing news for us.

[T'Chenka]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

The news is worse than I expected, I have yet to see more, but... this looks very bad.

Are you being ambiguous in order to troll us, or because you aren't supposed to say too much? I'm assuming the latter.

[BigSerg]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

The news is worse than I expected, I have yet to see more, but... this looks very bad.

Are you being ambiguous in order to troll us, or because you aren't supposed to say too much? I'm assuming the latter.

I can't confirm much of what I see, so I'm not saying much. But things have definitely escalated in an extreme way.

[Vosem]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

No prizes for guessing correctly.

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1494215992599363588

[T'Chenka]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

No prizes for guessing correctly.

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1494215992599363588

What are the odds that this is a false flag... as in, Russians pretending to be Ukrainians or Ukrainians loyal to Russia / paid by Russia to do it to further Russia's interests?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

No prizes for guessing correctly.

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1494215992599363588

What are the odds that this is a false flag... as in, Russians pretending to be Ukrainians or Ukrainians loyal to Russia / paid by Russia to do it to further Russia's interests?

Very suspicious, or let's say convenient for them, if Russia "suddenly" had a casus belli to invade after amassing so many of their troops at the Ukrainian border in the past weeks.

[dead0man]

obviously no one is going to believe this story that doesn't want to, maybe this it is aimed  at Russians so they are less likely to consider stringing up Putin and the oligarchs if the war goes poorly?

[Conservatopia]

My pro-Russian sources have told me that today is important, lots of disturbing news. Don't sleep tonight

I hope thousands of Russian troops get killed so that Putin loses popularity.

[jaichind]

2049 July 3rd NYT Front Page

1. Americans get ready for must needed rest on July 4th holiday
2. New York City mayoral race heats up
3. Top intelligence officials say that Russian invasion certain to take place within the week

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The shelling isn't good, but not extremely unusual. What's more worrying is the drumbeat about 'genocide' and Ukrainian provocation from Russia. Much more ratcheting up of media rhetoric than in previous weeks.

In other news, this is funny

https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/1494249684667412480?s=21

[Statilius the Epicurean]

My pro-Russian sources have told me that today is important, lots of disturbing news. Don't sleep tonight

You in a DM with Vladimir Vladimirovich?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's not unusual at all. Here for instance latest report form OSCE

https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports
https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-16%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1494306805320720390?s=21

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

No prizes for guessing correctly.

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1494215992599363588

What are the odds that this is a false flag... as in, Russians pretending to be Ukrainians or Ukrainians loyal to Russia / paid by Russia to do it to further Russia's interests?

Or, indeed, that it is almost totally made up.

[Mr. Illini]

Why are we supposed to believe that BigSerg would have “sources” (other than maybe Russian-sponsored news outlets)?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/KThomasDC/status/1494317551333085188

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

BigSerg has the same sources as Biden it seems:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1494318081962872833