UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Babeuf]

Setting up to be the most depressing election of the year.

[Babeuf]

Labour must unite and stop the infighting to avoid disaster. Well, disaster is almost certain anyway but staying on message would maybe avoid the worst?

Hahaha no chance of that though

[Babeuf]

Number 10 dousing water on having a TVdebate this time.

Those things always seemed more suited to Cameron's brand of campaigning.

Playing it as safe as they possibly can. Smart, but probably doesn't look great? Is there a chance that they would televise a debate between the other party leaders without her (although I could see Labour objecting to that because it would make them the biggest target there)?

[Babeuf]

They should empty chair May if she refuses to debate.

[Babeuf]

YouGov:
Con - 45% (-3)
Lab - 29% (+4)
Lib - 10% (-2)
UKIP - 7% (+2)
Oth - 9% (+1)

Gap narrowed by seven points since last week.

Could be just a regression to the mean but from afar it seems like Labour has been focusing on rolling out policy initiatives that should be popular each day of the campaign (more bank holidays, NHS staff pay raises) while May has been less active. So while the poll is still awful for Labour, I wouldn't be surprised if there has been some real movement.

As an aside, I'm disappointed in the decisions being made by the NEC in divvying up the retirees safe seats. High-profile Corbynites were passed over in Hull West today. Parachuting in left-faction members into safe seats was (imo) the best chance to ensure a left candidate reaches the ballot in the next leadership race, since I'm sure that there will be no moderates lending nominations like in 2015. As an aside, I imagine that the fear of Corbyn-friendly replacements was one of the reasons that there were so few Labour retirements this time around.

[Babeuf]

YouGov poll of Scotland, 24-27 April.

SNP: 41% (-6)
CON: 28% (+1)
LAB: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (+3)

Source: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/857733753292107777

They also have independence at:
Yes: 45% (+1)
No: 55% (-1)

At least according to this poll, it's notable that the SNP is starting to fall below the Yes % rather than being a bit above it (they ran 5.3 points ahead of Yes in their 2015 landslide).

[Babeuf]

The manifesto looks very good imo, but this quote from the Mirror article is just awful:

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How could any person like this be in a left-wing party!?!?

Also, shame on whoever leaked the draft.

[Babeuf]

This Labour manifesto seems like it could run Labour into the ground.

Eh, it's not all that different from the 2015 manifesto.

I think the fact that it was leaked hurts more than the manifesto itself. It robs Labour of the opportunity for a managed rollout.

[Babeuf]

This Labour manifesto seems like it could run Labour into the ground.

Eh, it's not all that different from the 2015 manifesto.

Yes it is. Is going to create a state run energy firm, is going to nationalize the railways, re-introduce collective bargaining, scrap the 1% pay cap for the public sector and scrap Tuition fees. Besides scrapping Trident (something the Unions wouldn't let) this is basically what the left have been wanting for the last 15 years

My bad, saw some stuff to that effect on Twitter. I guess they were wrong then.

[Babeuf]

ComRes poll finds people largely support the manifesto pledges but don't like Corbyn.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/poll-shows-people-love-labours-10404216